South African Covid-19 News and Discussions

[MiW]

It took nearly a month to hear about the scale of spread in St Augustine's. We only hear about it after all the tests were complete , and the dead , dead. So if there was some hot spot they found last week, we will probably find out next week.
You guys are talking about it , like you having an actual real time info.

 

[3GLee]

You expect government to magic into existence new testing kits? Far richer countries than South Africa are having trouble getting enough test kits and in many cases competing directly for the same test kits.

Not at all and neither is expecting food to magically appear on everyone's tables during this hard times.
With the testing kits that we have, are we optimally using it in order to determine the extend of the outbreak? Furthermore, holding a countries economy to ransom (or what is left of it) during a lockdown without the capability to adequately address the problem seems shortsighted. We trust that our government is reviewing all scenarios and will make an informed decision after evaluating all the risks (Corona, economy, shortage of tests). Simply applying a cookie cut solution will not work.

 

[daveza]

So this is where so much blame has to be heaped on the WHO. The moment this whole thing arose in China, China should have out of its own enforced a travel ban. The WHO should have forced China to do so ij it failed to do anything out of its own.

And when China said no ?

 

[Icemanbrfc]

So this is where so much blame has to be heaped on the WHO. The moment this whole thing arose in China, China should have out of its own enforced a travel ban. The WHO should have forced China to do so ij it failed to do anything out of its own.
The countries (all of them) should have enforced their own travel bans. That would have contained the virus.
And it is these things that should remain in place for at least 3 to 6 months.
If you want to travel, you have to agree to and pay for testing. At departure and on return.

If you can afford to travel, then you can afford the medical issues that go with travel whatever they are.

But much of the blame, also goes towards those people who continued to travel on business and holiday trips.

 

[Brian_G]

Simply applying a cookie cut solution will not work.

Sure, but the alternative of doing no LD at all was very likely to be more dangerous. IMO, got to keep trying to find the best middle ground, even if it's a weak attempt.
(Doesn't mean I believe a LD extension will help, I don't.)

 

[Mirai]

Sure, but the alternative of doing no LD at all was very likely to be more dangerous. IMO, got to keep trying to find the best middle ground, even if it's a weak attempt.
(Doesn't mean I believe a LD extension will help, I don't.)

Spread to townships must be averted at all costs.

 

[Brian_G]

Spread to townships must be averted at all costs.

I'm in complete agreement with that (short of full economic destruction) - but it's already there, and I'm convinced has been for weeks. So my vote for now is no, let's complete the next week first at the least.
There was a mention earlier in one of the threads that it's now suspected that one of the common HIV treatments may be keeping it at bay, sure hope so.

 

[sand_man]

I reckon the actual infection rate is 15 - 20 x the official figure... We probably at around 20k infected by now... maybe more...

 

[Lupus]

I reckon the actual infection rate is 15 - 20 x the official figure... We probably at around 20k infected by now... maybe more...

Way more, the entire world is probably sitting at 43 milllion infected and who knows how many got over it. Something with an R0 of double the flu that's been left unchecked for a few months?

 

[sand_man]

Way more, the entire world is probably sitting at 43 milllion infected and who knows how many got over it. Something with an R0 of double the flu that's been left unchecked for a few months?

Yeah, quite possible... that's both good and bad news... good in the sense that the IFR is possibly well below 1%, bad in the sense that we will never really get a handle on this virus...

 

[Lupus]

Yeah, quite possible... that's both good and bad news... good in the sense that the IFR is possibly well below 1%, bad in the sense that we will never really get a handle on this virus...

We more than likely won't get a handle on this virus, much like all other coronaviruses out there.

 

[sand_man]

What may be promising is that so far there seems to be no increase in risk for HIV patients. In fact some data from China about SARS show that people on HIV treatment may enjoy some protection.

Suppose it's all down to viral loads and CD4 counts...?

 

[Temujin]

Way more, the entire world is probably sitting at 43 milllion infected and who knows how many got over it. Something with an R0 of double the flu that's been left unchecked for a few months?

I think we're in for a shock in a few years when we're able to see just how widespread it went

 

[Lupus]

I think we're in for a shock in a few years when we're able to see just how widespread it went

Yup we will more than likely be, as it's a coronavirus which already is 15% of all common colds, so these things spread already, now all of a sudden we have this one which is probably done the same and most people will feel like it's a cold and most countries are not testing unless you're serious, or even not in the case of Nicodeamus

 

[sand_man]

How is @Nicodeamus btw?

 

[Alan]

I think we're in for a shock in a few years when we're able to see just how widespread it went

Only will know once an accurate antibody test become widely available.

 

[Gordon_R]

So this is where so much blame has to be heaped on the WHO. The moment this whole thing arose in China, China should have out of its own enforced a travel ban. The WHO should have forced China to do so ij it failed to do anything out of its own.
The countries (all of them) should have enforced their own travel bans. That would have contained the virus.
And it is these things that should remain in place for at least 3 to 6 months.
If you want to travel, you have to agree to and pay for testing. At departure and on return.

If you can afford to travel, then you can afford the medical issues that go with travel whatever they are.

There's a separate thread for Trump, the WHO, and China blaming. Please try to keep that off the SA thread. See: https://mybroadband.co.za/forum/thr...om-who-says-un-body-is-china-centric.1078487/

 

[Brian_G]

I think we're in for a shock in a few years when we're able to see just how widespread it went

Talking about a few years... just how are we going to deal with the future, this isn't a once-off kind of event at all.
Do we;
1. Laugh it off due to lack of fatality now (presuming that continues) and our desire to protect our way of life, which could end up devastating us if it is serious
OR
2. Be sensible(?) in again taking precautions like have been done now, which could end up a bad joke...

(And please don't suggest A.I. can work it out, that's largely just other hype which suits multinationals.)

EDIT: Typo

 

[Nicodeamus]

How is @Nicodeamus btw?

stuburn as usual, I guess back to my old self. Thanks for asking, I completely recovered.

The sun is also coming out in France, Austria announced that next week that will lift some measures, as did Denmark. France still has an official confinement until next Friday, but I guess is another week past that.

 

[Polymathic]

I reckon the actual infection rate is 15 - 20 x the official figure... We probably at around 20k infected by now... maybe more...

Using the number of the dead with the most favorable case fatality rates of 0.7% gives us an estimate of 2,500 total cases and using the US rate of 3.2% only gives us 563 cases which is much lower than the actual number.