South African Covid-19 News and Discussions

[Paulsie]

I think most will agree that there are perhaps thousands more cases out there undetected as we speak. Some mild cases regarded as just the sniffles, some completely asymptomatic, some still incubating, some perhaps protected by HIV medications etc. The question going forward is - when the mumber of cases co to he's to go up (and they will), is the government going to react to the total number of cases or should they perhaps rather look at the number of severe cases only in order to make a decision regarding extensions, distancing etc? My argument being that there is going to be an increase in cases whether we like it or not, but if the majority of the population is handling it well, should they not take that into consideration??

Lastly, I think the government is between the rock and a hard place. If they extend (to protect the vulnerable), they will severely harm the economy (primarily smme's). If they relax and the mumbets go up, they will be seen as prioritizing business (white), over the poor.

 

[Ockie]

Is something going on? BF just phoned me. He just left our place to go to the office to do a conference call with USA and he said the parking lots of places like Spar on Beyers Naude and Cresta are just jam packed. Cars struggling to get in. Has something been said in the news that is making people panic again??????????????????

 

[theratman]

Is something going on? BF just phoned me. He just left our place to go to the office to do a conference call with USA and he said the parking lots of places like Spar on Beyers Naude and Cresta are just jam packed. Cars struggling to get in. Has something been said in the news that is making people panic again??????????????????

Easter weekend prepping?

 

[Cage Rattler]

"Insiders confirmed to Business Insider that manufacturers – via a business organisation – have been polled on what the impact would be if Lockdown 2.0 were to be extended to either 8 May or 30 May. One survey went out on Wednesday."

 

[Brian_G]

Is something going on? BF just phoned me. He just left our place to go to the office to do a conference call with USA and he said the parking lots of places like Spar on Beyers Naude and Cresta are just jam packed. Cars struggling to get in. Has something been said in the news that is making people panic again??????????????????

Maybe non-belief in the threat is spreading...

 

[Ockie]

Easter weekend prepping?

Ah yes. I guess that would explain it. Did not even think of that. Thank you. He got a fright...thinking have been in the news that is making people panic and we have have not heard about it.

 

[Gordon_R]

Using the number of the dead with the most favorable case fatality rates of 0.7% gives us an estimate of 2,500 total cases and using the US rate of 3.2% only gives us 563 cases which is much lower than the actual number.

Don't bother trying to make logical arguments on this forum. Some people just can't accept facts, and come up with alternative theories to convince themselves why the facts aren't real. Sound familiar?

There is a minor loophole in your argument: The incubation period means that deaths are considerably delayed (18-24 days) from the time of first infection. However, given that the current lockdown has stopped the exponential growth phase, the numbers are still consistent.

I discussed all of this in a previous thread, and gave some numerical 'guesstimates', but comments just get drowned out in all the noise.

 

[Brian_G]

Ah yes. I guess that would explain it. Did not even think of that. Thank you. He got a fright...thinking have been in the news that is making people panic and we have have not heard about it.

Another factor must be the long queues causing a human traffic jam, so not as bad as it looks.

 

[daveza]

Yup, boss called me from a Jo'burg mall last night, said the parking area was packed.

 

[Cray]

Yup, boss called me from a Jo'burg mall last night, said the parking area was packed.

Yeah, the 50 people limit seems to be what causes it... Went into checkers the other early, no queue, was only in for about 10 minutes but by the time I was out there where about 25 peeps in the queue - shows just how much foor traffic these places get.

 

[Polymathic]

Don't bother trying to make logical arguments on this forum. Some people just can't accept facts, and come up with alternative theories to convince themselves why the facts aren't real. Sound familiar?

There is a minor loophole in your argument: The incubation period means that deaths are considerably delayed (18-24 days) from the time of first infection. However, given that the current lockdown has stopped the exponential growth phase, the numbers are still consistent.

I discussed all of this in a previous thread, and gave some numerical 'guesstimates', but comments just get drowned out in all the noise.

Yeah for a more accurate guestimate one would need to look at the travel history of each of the fatalities to see if they were overseas within the incubation period or not.

 

[Gordon_R]

Yeah for a more accurate guestimate one would need to look at the travel history of each of the fatalities to see if they were overseas within the incubation period or not.

There must be such data available to the government. Partly because of privacy concerns, but also them just not willing to share information, we will never see these numbers. Releasing minimal case data only, is not a good way to build trust...

 

[Brian_G]

Vaccinations.
There was a nasty report in the internat. thread a few weeks back which detailed all the scary rubbish that goes into them, was from a reliable source and was quite well respected on the thread.
(Will find that if really needed.)

But do we have a choice?
My thoughts;
1. Unlikely to help enough with future versions.
2. If a person has had the shot, why would they fear one who hasn't??
3. If only a partial solution, how dare anyone dictate it as supremely valid?
4. I'm all for a shot personally if it is a truly good way to help, but besides the junk in them I'm already suspicious of the toxic giants in industry who produce them (plenty of doccies out there about that) and the health of humanity's future is currently a joke anyway so why would I trust those who run things?

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

More ransacking taking place:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1248196760805261313

 

[Mirai]

There is a minor loophole in your argument: The incubation period means that deaths are considerably delayed (18-24 days) from the time of first infection. However, given that the current lockdown has stopped the exponential growth phase, the numbers are still consistent.

Gordon, median incubation time is 5 days, also deterioration is about day 5, so many of the infected people will present to healthcare with severe symptoms = shortness of breath = at day 10 after infection. They have to present because their symptoms are severe. We should be seeing a lot more people by now at day 14 lockdown.

Incubation period is 12.5 days max for 95% of people. But median is 5 days.

Corrected, meant median, not mean.

 

[daveza]

More ransacking taking place:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1248196760805261313

Meanwhile the cops are making sure your trip up the road is really for shopping.

 

[cavedog]

So is the president addressing us today. My trust level is very low to any whatsapp message circulating

 

[Brian_G]

So is the president addressing us today. My trust level is very low to any whatsapp message circulating

Nothing I could find, only this;

...Economists, however, are warning a prolonged lockdown may cause irreparable harm to the economy, with Finance Minister Tito Mboweni set to hold a press conference on Thursday to address recent economic developments, which include another ratings downgrade...

Ramaphosa to make ‘serious decisions’ about lockdown based on science, possible economic repercussions | Voice of the Cape

President Cyril Ramaphosa will make "serious decisions" about the lockdown after considering all options based on scientific modelling and advice as well as the possible economic repercussions of the nationwide shutdown. Jackson Mthembu, the minister in the presidency, told News24 Rama ...

www.vocfm.co.za

 

[sand_man]

Using the number of the dead with the most favorable case fatality rates of 0.7% gives us an estimate of 2,500 total cases and using the US rate of 3.2% only gives us 563 cases which is much lower than the actual number.

I reckon the number of deaths is being under reported. Look at the critical cases number too? Been 7 for about a week. Hasn't changed. How's that possible?

 

[Shi]

Yup, boss called me from a Jo'burg mall last night, said the parking area was packed.

Could be that shops are closed for the public holidays. I need to check myself.