South African Covid-19 News and Discussions

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Chris_the_Brit

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Looking like CR might of been too hasty to announce an additional 2 weeks of lockdown. Active cases should drop below 1000 before Monday unless he's expecting a large batch of positive cases in the coming days.
Hmmm...that 410 recoveries was probably over the past week or so. We don't get daily updates of recoveries.
 

Gordon_R

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So does this mean we just have 1559 active cases?
Hmmm...that 410 recoveries was probably over the past week or so. We don't get daily updates of recoveries.
Active cases just means persons who tested positive sometime in the last 14 days. The recovery protocols are very strict, and require sequential negative tests. Many of the so-called active cases are perfectly healthy (asymptomatic or in self-isolation), its just a statistical thing.
 

Polymathic

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Hmmm...that 410 recoveries was probably over the past week or so. We don't get daily updates of recoveries.
It's going to be 21 days since the lockdown started next Friday, that's enough time to learn the outcomes for almost all the prelockdown cases and some of the early post lockdown cases.
 

johnjm

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Yeah versus the thousands of people with aids and TB that WILL die, doing even more damage.It isn't a question of if, and while there may be cases of these people recovering, all of them will likely end up needing to receive urgent care, health care sector won't survive, a sudden influx will also result in people needing urgent care for none viruses stuff to start dying indirectly as a result of not being able to receive the care they need.


You people still don't grasp the the economy isn't shutdown, food industry and other industries that directly or indirectly supply materials in the production of food isn't shutdown, do you really think a can of baked beans is going to magically can it self, the paper is magically going to appear around the can, the ink in the printed label, the glue that holds the label together.Cleaning agents used in the plant. ?

Essential services isn't JUST food, quite a few indirect industries that supply essential services to the food industry, to keep essential services afloat, quite a bit of that is unskilled labor in both industries. So while local industries on the essential services front is still pretty much moving full steam ahead.Considering how large the industry actually is to try and feed 55million odd people. You may not be aware coke has a bottling plant in about every province, same applies to various other food companies, and various other industries that was earmarked as essential services.

I am sure there are sectors that is suffering. I can't fault any one for assuming that the food industry is a small blip on the local economy.Even non chained stores that sell essential services are open and doing pretty well all things considered. South Africa is a secondary economy, which means it produces the final product.

Lets have a look at the value of the various industries in particular the ones that isn't shutdown, I am sure in the manufacturing area there are businesses that ares open right now, so lets peg that at reasonable 50%.

Electric gas and water is operating as normal, with the exception of water consumption being down due to manufacturing being down to 50%, electricity consumption being down. Gas should be negligible at best.

Wholesale and retail.

With hotels and restaurants closed, lets peg that at least 40% retail industry is significantly larger then hotels and restaurants, not all retail and wholesale is open, however, those that aren't open combined wouldn't even closely match essential services in gross value to the economy and sector.It is however the smaller non essential businesses that will be the hardest hit and non essential retail chains.

Transport, storage and communication.
Communication should running decently but not at full capacity. Transport and storage took a decent knock reasonably 30-40% operational.

Taxes on products, took a decent knock reasonably 50% reduction.

There is finance as well which is rather broad, quite a few bank branches and such closed.There is likely some areas in forestry still operational, especially sappi which is operational. Agriculture sector is also reasonably active, their value is significantly smaller then the bigger industries, but they are definitely operational
as they are essential services.

Government services is another hit and miss.
Mining is also a hit and a miss as there is definitely some areas open like coal mines.

I literally can't phantom, how ignorant people are in generally about the economy in general, with the biggest sectors in the economy still operational, quite a bit of the admin staff and non essential staff is working from home in the sectors that is still operational.

I didn't even include non essential businesses that is still operational in a reduced capacity working from home.
I really don't get how people are assuming that the economy is at a complete standstill, it isn't. if it was the currency would have drastically reflected this.

View attachment 818109
Yes small/medium businesses is going to suffer, and there will be businesses that will close and there are people going hungry to bed tonight, quite a bit of people not getting income currently.Unfortunately we aren't like developed countries, we have our own unique circumstances, we have significantly bigger challenges then the rest of the world especially with large portion of people living in overcrowded informal settlements, with the highest probability of infection spreading like wild fire, ironically these areas also have the highest areas of AIDS/HIV and TB infections.What you are advocating is giving people a death sentence, because employment of staff is far more important, it is most definitely implied.

What you can't seem to grasp or willing to, there is actually no win scenario here, no matter what approach you take it will be lose-lose either way.Economy can recover, and as some one mentioned there is no recovery from death, period.Look at the impact wide spread death will have versus economical down turn.

So before you starting making broad and sweeping statements, have an closer look and apply some common sense.

Are we on the freedom and liberties debate again. ? ugh honestly, people are still trying to compare lockdown restrictions to other countries. Do it really need to explain the flawed logic on that as well. ?



I am not even going to bother replying to your bait and switch flawed logic, it isn't worth the effort or my time, but welcome to my digital isolation list :)

But before I do
So thousands of people spending stupid amount of money buying liquor before the lockdown and boasting about their stash isn't selfish, panic buying and emptying shelves when told to not to panic buy isn't selfish.Yeah whatever you pretty much lost credibility right there. If any thing it has proven in black and white it is every man for him self.
Consumer spend is 2/3 of the economy.
 

Mirai

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Active cases just means persons who tested positive sometime in the last 14 days. The recovery protocols are very strict, and require sequential negative tests. Many of the so-called active cases are perfectly healthy (asymptomatic or in self-isolation), its just a statistical thing.
I noticed the number of recoveries in SA was greater than in Europe. What I mean by that it seems and I may be wrong but from just eyeballing the world meter site daily, is that our actives convert to recovered status faster than in other countries. As though they keep them longer. Two swabs 24h apart is the bare minimum and even that is 'expert opinion' (lowest standard of evidence) and not verified.
 

Mirai

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Yeah versus the thousands of people with aids and TB that WILL die, doing even more damage.It isn't a question of if, and while there may be cases of these people recovering, all of them will likely end up needing to receive urgent care, health care sector won't survive, a sudden influx will also result in people needing urgent care for none viruses stuff to start dying indirectly as a result of not being able to receive the care they need.

Etc.
You make too much sense. This isn't the aftrmath of WW2 people, with bombed out towns, factories and dead or missing population. As you say, many things are running.
 

johnjm

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Consumer spending directly drives other sectors not related to consumer spending. So what is your point exactly, other then making a short statement.
In reference to the economy not being completely shut down. It pretty much is.
 

Gordon_R

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I noticed the number of recoveries in SA was greater than in Europe. What I mean by that it seems and I may be wrong but from just eyeballing the world meter site daily, is that our actives convert to recovered status faster than in other countries. As though they keep them longer. Two swabs 24h apart is the bare minimum and even that is 'expert opinion' (lowest standard of evidence) and not verified.
A lot of the early cases in SA were travel related, and there was a huge spike in daily cases around 26 Mar, followed by a drop after the lockdown. Many of those 'mild' cases have recovered by now, and are popping up in the statistics. Our curves are very different from almost every other country.

Some useful reading:
 

wizardofid

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You make too much sense. This isn't the aftrmath of WW2 people, with bombed out towns, factories and dead or missing population. As you say, many things are running.
Look the tannie with the curtain and material shop is mostly screwed, as is other niche market products, they didn't exactly have high turn over to start with any ways.The benefit is that most these non essential services fair number have non perishable stock, it isn't like stock magically vanished overnight.

The bigger issue is getting those niche stores and products on the market again, we can be reasonable sure buying power will significantly be reduced and there will be a shift towards essential stuff for a long time to come.
In reference to the economy not being completely shut down. It pretty much is.
Thanks wasn't sure what you were getting at. I would say considering the 3 largest sectors being opperational we have at least 40-50% of the local economy running. That isn't taking into account businesses that are non essential working from home.
 

wizardofid

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You make too much sense. This isn't the aftrmath of WW2 people, with bombed out towns, factories and dead or missing population. As you say, many things are running.
Look the tannie with the curtain and material shop is mostly screwed, as is other niche market products, they didn't exactly have high turn over to start with any ways.The benefit is that most of these non essential services, a fair number have non perishable stock, it isn't like stock magically vanished overnight. As you mentioned infrastructure and stores are still there it also didn't magically vanish overnight. It entirely depends on what landlords, banks ect do to try and mitigate the problems people will face, 3 months grace is hardly enough time to get businesses back on their feet.

Essentially niche market and general goods and services is entirely fked, how significant that impact is on the local economy remains to be seen, one can only postulate theories, and look at forecasts.But to say we aren't marginally fked is irresponsible and a understatement.

But thankfully it seems once this lockdown is lifted, Mybb members will single handily save the tobacco and liquor industry ........
 

ForceFate

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That's methylated spirit in the photo, which isn't methanol, it's actually denatured alcohol (made from ethanol).

;)
It's not 100% ethanol. I may be wrong but I think the "methyl" part of the name alludes to the fact that it contains methanol.
 

Lupus

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In case anyone is interested:

Of the 68 000 tests conducted as of yesterday, 58 000 were done by the private sector and 10 000 by the public sector.
So only 5000 more done today, and only 10000 in the public sector and people want NHI
 

Gordon_R

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SAPS members are also infected:
National police commissioner General Khehla Sitole said 12 police officers have tested positive for the novel coronavirus.

Sitole said this while accompanying Police Minister Bheki Cele on a visit to the rural Eastern Cape town of Engcobo.

He said the 12 officers tested positive for Covid-19 during regular SAPS testing processes. They are receiving the necessary treatment.

"We are looking after them. As and when that occurs, we then give them the necessary attention. So the 12 that I was referring to, are part and parcel of our own testing processes that take place," the commissioner said.
 

Gordon_R

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I noticed the number of recoveries in SA was greater than in Europe. What I mean by that it seems and I may be wrong but from just eyeballing the world meter site daily, is that our actives convert to recovered status faster than in other countries. As though they keep them longer. Two swabs 24h apart is the bare minimum and even that is 'expert opinion' (lowest standard of evidence) and not verified.
Update: If you look at the provincial figures, there are many more recoveries in Gauteng and the Western Cape (mostly early travel related), than KZN (mostly later local transmission), and the Free State has a single localised outbreak (since contained). See: https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/covid-19-sa-is-still-traversing-the-storm-mkhize-warns-as-death-toll-rises-to-24-20200410
Gauteng: 801 positive cases, 3 deaths, 157 recoveries;
Western Cape: 541 positive cases, 6 deaths, 152 recoveries;
KwaZulu-Natal: 412 positive cases, 12 deaths, 15 recoveries;
Free State: 94 positive cases, 3 deaths, 61 recoveries;
 

Gordon_R

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Some good news.

Permission is not always the same as reality, when red-tape is involved:
 
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