South African Covid-19 News and Discussions

[The_Librarian]

Yup.... and its sickening.

There are many people who are genuinely struggling to get food. But you have twats trying to take advantage of the situation and get shyte for free when they can buy stuff themselves.

That ... upsets me a lot.

Elke hond kry sy dag...

 

[ToxicBunny]

Ahhh the joys of a police force that is fscking clueless about the regulations and also get on little power trips and arrest people with all the relevant paper work and such.

 

[Polymathic]

Ahhh the joys of a police force that is fscking clueless about the regulations and also get on little power trips and arrest people with all the relevant paper work and such.

I'm right on the edge of the Metro so I'm probably going to experience the SANDF first hand

 

[Lupus]

They have been supplementing their income with bribes for years. Now with noone on the roads, that has been cut off.

Yup we had something similar happening at one company I worked out, they were supplementing their incomes with false overtime and other means, when those were cut off suddenly the BMs were gone, the fancy watches and such it's scary.

 

[The_Librarian]

Ahhh the joys of a police force that is fscking clueless about the regulations and also get on little power trips and arrest people with all the relevant paper work and such.

Happened to my wife this morning. Luckily she had the papperwork to prove she was going to the shops....

 

[ToxicBunny]

Happened to my wife this morning. Luckily she had the papperwork to prove she was going to the shops....

What paperwork did she have?

I have no paperwork for trips to the shops.

 

[Steamy Tom]

What paperwork did she have?

I have no paperwork for trips to the shops.

woman executive paper work, shopping lists probably.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

SA’s Covid-19 models were ‘flawed’, says former NICD expert

The modelling of how many people would contract Covid-19 and die was “flawed and illogical and made wild assumptions”, says Prof Shabhir Madhi, the former head of SA’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).

It’s an important claim not just because of Madhi’s stature (he also co-ran the SA Medical Research Council), but also because the Covid-19 model, which suggested between 87,000 and 350,000 deaths, was instrumental in the government’s decision to implement a lockdown

The government’s initial model also predicted that 600 Covid-19 patients would need treatment in intensive care units (ICU) in SA by April 1. But by April 18, the last publicly released figures showed there were 32 Covid-19 patients in ICU.

While the lockdown would have slowed the spread of the disease, it had only been in place for four days by April 1, so this was likely not the reason why there were so few ICU patients.

Madhi says the initial modelling and fatality estimates were “back-of-envelope calculations”.

The models were prepared by the SA Centre for Epidemiological Modelling & Analysis (Sacema) at Stellenbosch University, as well as the NICD. They used data from Wuhan, the Chinese city where the outbreak began.

The Sacema model modelled its fatality projections around different scenarios in which 10%, 20% and 40% of the population contracted the virus.

Madhi says he raised problems with the model at the time. Nowhere in the world – not even in Wuhan – had 10% of the population contracted the virus. “I told them that at the start, this is implausible,” he tells the FM.

(paywall):https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/f...9-models-were-flawed-says-former-nicd-expert/

 

[pinball wizard]

SA’s Covid-19 models were ‘flawed’, says former NICD expert



(paywall):https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/f...9-models-were-flawed-says-former-nicd-expert/

When those of us here suggested this, boy were we shot down.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

When those of us here suggested this, boy were we shot down.

Yup. I was skeptical of the epidemiological models after the nonsense they produced in relation to the UK (500 000 deaths) and the US (2.2 million)

I'm furious that a decision with huge ramifications was based on nonsense.

Uncle @rpm maybe you can interview the guy in the article for us.

 

[dualmeister]

It's pretty easy to get an essential service certificate. I can go back to the office in May if I want

 

[R13...]

When those of us here suggested this, boy were we shot down.

With good reason. So this one dude is so much smarter than the army of modellers the government currently employ? Sounds like a disgruntled employee to me looking for a bit of attention.

 

[Brian_G]

The LD probably would have happened anyway, too much of worldwide concerns and so pressure from / about that and about our HIV riddled population.

 

[sand_man]

SA’s Covid-19 models were ‘flawed’, says former NICD expert



(paywall):https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/f...9-models-were-flawed-says-former-nicd-expert/

Fck me, this is nuts!!!!! So we collapsed the economy on the back of dodgy data??!! How's this even possible?

 

[daveza]

Fck me, this is nuts!!!!! So we collapsed the economy on the back of dodgy data??!! How's this even possible?

Uhm, you are talking about people who supported Zuma through 6 or 7 votes of no confidence ....

 

[The_Librarian]

What paperwork did she have?

I have no paperwork for trips to the shops.

Basically some sort of permit saying you're on your way to

[_] visiting chemist/doctor/blood donation
[_] shop for essential food
[_] bank for services that is not possible with online transactions
[_] visiting public services
[_] helping people who cannot help themselves or people who are in self-isolation and need food dropped off
[_] physical activities or pet needs
[_] ceremony eg wedding/funeral
[_] any other reason as stated above

Wife says she saw other people driving around with their kids in the car... not a care in the world....

I have got papperwork - my employer is "essential" and I have the required to prove that I need to go in to the office for attending to things (eg umkipserver etc).

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Fck me, this is nuts!!!!! So we collapsed the economy on the back of dodgy data??!! How's this even possible?

I guess government demanded a prediction model regardless of the inherent uncertainty which goes into making a model. A model is only as good as its assumptions. As programmers like to say "Garbage in, garbage out".

 

[Magnum]

interesting

Can you kill coronavirus with UV light?

There’s only one type of UV that can reliably inactivate Covid-19 – and it’s extremely dangerous.

www.bbc.com

I have one bulb that kills the virus. It also destroys DNA. Makes Ozone and in in general very bad for you.

 

[Brian_G]

Not sure what you mean, there's no official permit for shopping that was ever mentioned.

[_] helping people who cannot help themselves or people who are in self-isolation and need food dropped off
[_] physical activities or pet needs

These two are interesting to us;
1. We wanted to travel 50km to help someone who can't help herself, but decided we didn't dare try that distance with the trigger happy lot and then found someone willing locally.
2. Physical activities??...

 

[Polymathic]

Basically some sort of permit saying you're on your way to

[_] visiting chemist/doctor/blood donation
[_] shop for essential food
[_] bank for services that is not possible with online transactions
[_] visiting public services
[_] helping people who cannot help themselves or people who are in self-isolation and need food dropped off
[_] physical activities or pet needs
[_] ceremony eg wedding/funeral
[_] any other reason as stated above

Wife says she saw other people driving around with their kids in the car... not a care in the world....

I have got papperwork - my employer is "essential" and I have the required to prove that I need to go in to the office for attending to things (eg umkipserver etc).

What if they stop you on your way to get a permit?