South African Covid-19 News and Discussions

[Brian_G]

A model is only as good as its assumptions. As programmers like to say "Garbage in, garbage out".

That's also the whole problem with the wider A.I. myth, it takes tremendous care and much individual code, and which can't be rushed but big biz. insists on rushing for cost savings & profit. Even ordinary software is really too bug infested these days, compared to the past anyway.

 

[joshuatree]

Western Cape Update :

Premier Alan Winde

Media Release: Update on the coronvirus by Premier Alan Winde | 24 April 2020 As of 17h00 on 23 April, the Western Cape has recorded 1314 confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection. Total confirmed...

www.facebook.com

 

[Dryden]

My papperwork is also strong

 

[Geoff.D]

For those who feel they're still not washing their hands enough... /sarcasm

Samsung’s smartwatches get a hand-washing reminder and timer app

The app is called "Hand Wash."

www.theverge.com

Soon there will be an app to remind people to breathe. Technology gone completely beserk.

I remind everyone that if you want to get an idea about Isolationism coupled with a reliance on technology can ultimately do read the Science Fiction short story by Isaac Asimov 1957, "The Naked Sun"

 

[Dianysis]

Basically some sort of permit saying you're on your way to

[_] visiting chemist/doctor/blood donation
[_] shop for essential food
[_] bank for services that is not possible with online transactions
[_] visiting public services
[_] helping people who cannot help themselves or people who are in self-isolation and need food dropped off
[_] physical activities or pet needs
[_] ceremony eg wedding/funeral
[_] any other reason as stated above

Wife says she saw other people driving around with their kids in the car... not a care in the world....

I have got papperwork - my employer is "essential" and I have the required to prove that I need to go in to the office for attending to things (eg umkipserver etc).

I think I have missed something...

Since when do we need permits to go to the doctor? Or buy food?

We go once a week to top up and have never had a permit. I would hate to be stopped if we are supposed to have one...

And where do we get these permits?

There are so many do's and don'ts that I have lost track.

 

[chrisc]

Locksmith (sole proprietor) called his local Ward Councillor to get a trading permit. She does not do this but said the SAPS will issue it

SAPS station said they are not involved in commerce in any way and queried why the ward councillor gave him the info

Usual SNAFU as I expected

 

[daveza]

I think I have missed something...

Since when do we need permits to go to the doctor? Or buy food?

We go once a week to top up and have never had a permit. I would hate to be stopped if we are supposed to have one...

And where do we get these permits?

There are so many do's and don'ts that I have lost track.

We do not, never have.

 

[Geoff.D]

With good reason. So this one dude is so much smarter than the army of modellers the government currently employ? Sounds like a disgruntled employee to me looking for a bit of attention.

No not at all. It is just like most panic situations where a severe case of "Groupthink" infects those involved, who get so deeply influenced by the numbers and graphs they are analysing that they forget to continually check if the assumptions they are making remain valid during the projection period.
It is the same deeply rooted issue that pervades the CC lot.

Plain old common sense goes straight out of the window.


Everyone should read this paper/article, especially the doomsayers and those that blindly believe anything any government official says or quotes.

COVID-19: What’s wrong with the models? - Peter Attia

Originally written as an internal memo on April 15, 2020; updated and shared publicly on April 20

peterattiamd.com

 

[Geoff.D]

We do not, never have.

But one does exist --- And it appears to be completely official. It certainly looks like the original intention was that everyone would have to get one of these before being allowed to go shopping.

I would like to think that someone with more than two brain cells stepped in at some point and saw to it the Don Bheki's plans in this regard were nullified.

 

[Dianysis]

We do not, never have.

Thanks.
I am so over this LD.

 

[Gordon_R]

SA’s Covid-19 models were ‘flawed’, says former NICD expert



(paywall):https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/f...9-models-were-flawed-says-former-nicd-expert/

Those model projections were never released to the public, nor to independent researchers in the field. Perhaps the government thought they were being wise to avoid scaring the public, but if so it was actually the biggest scientific/political blunder in history.

There were a number of people on the forum saying we are all going to die, an equal number saying its a non-event. Very few came close to the reality, that its a slow start, with a buildup to a severe epidemic later.

There was plenty of evidence from other countries at similar stages of the epidemic. This is not hindsight, the models and data were available from day one (mid-March) in SA, if only the right people were looking at them...

Prof Karim hinted at this 'cognitive dissonance' in his presentation 10 days ago:

 

[CataclysmZA]

But one does exist --- And it appears to be completely official. It certainly looks like the original intention was that everyone would have to get one of these before being allowed to go shopping.

It appears official.

But it was for the UK, not South Africa.

 

[Lupus]

Covid-19 update: SA has dropped below 1,000 new daily cases again, deaths now at 286 | Business Insider

Last updated 22:12, 18 May 2020: The latest about the novel coronavirus crisis in South Africa, and everything we've learnt so far.

www.businessinsider.co.za

This article states cigarettes will still be prohibted? Has something changed?

 

[ToxicBunny]

Covid-19 update: SA has dropped below 1,000 new daily cases again, deaths now at 286 | Business Insider

Last updated 22:12, 18 May 2020: The latest about the novel coronavirus crisis in South Africa, and everything we've learnt so far.

www.businessinsider.co.za

This article states cigarettes will still be prohibted? Has something changed?

Says smokes allowed the way I read it.

 

[Lupus]

Says smokes allowed the way I read it.

I know that's confusing, if you go further down

 

[BeerIsNotGood...]

I'm right on the edge of the Metro so I'm probably going to experience the SANDF first hand

Don't get shot...

 

[Brian_G]

Squirrel definitely said cigs can then be bought. Just confusion.

 

[CataclysmZA]

There was plenty of evidence from other countries at similar stages of the epidemic. This is not hindsight, the models and data were available from day one (mid-March) in SA, if only the right people were looking at them...

Our government built their model from data out of Wuhan and from our own flu cases that get tracked each year.

There are people here on the forum who now go "oh, look, someone else says the data from a projection was flawed, I was saying this all along!", but in reality no-one knew where the virus was going to go. You make the best decision with the information available, and at the time it was all hell breaking loose in every other country in early March.

In one month, over 11,000 unpublished papers were written, documenting COVID-19 cases. That's a mountain of data to sift through.

Even now, the models are inaccurate because now we know that most stats are out by a factor of ten or more because there are far more asymptomatics than previously thought.

 

[Brian_G]

And look at the title of the article... LOL

Covid-19 update: SA has dropped below 1,000 new daily cases again, deaths now at 286 | Business Insider

Last updated 22:12, 18 May 2020: The latest about the novel coronavirus crisis in South Africa, and everything we've learnt so far.

www.businessinsider.co.za

 

[MiW]

I know that's confusing, if you go further down

View attachment 828423

It's her old speech , from last week? with 50% mining . The articles that follow are older