Agreed. whos to say it just wont be war and famine.
If a reform movement were to emerge, the marketing and objectives would surely have to be set out to avoid war. I don't think war is necessary, and doubt there's much appetite for it either. As far as famine goes, that's very extreme, but anyway food security has been worsening for years under the status quo, will doing nothing help?
It is difficult to assess whether a fast or slow demise has a superior outcome.
My conviction with a rapid decline probably comes from experience with financial markets. Trend reversals are generally preceded by a trend acceleration, and markets are highly influenced by human psychology. It also seems intuitive that a country's problems would be salient to more citizens in an accelerating decline, and I say this from first hand experience of the 2016-2018 decline which was personally a big factor in my own decision to take action (emigrate) after being happy well into my 30s while possessing all the means to leave very easily all of my life.
Geographically there is nothing nearby to act as a catalyst for recovery after the government has implemented all its policies. Many former Soviet economies are still struggling in spite of being positioned geographically with Europe right on their doorstep. In SA there will be very limited recovery support if any at all. The SA government has among its litany of failures also chosen the wrong international partners.
Gosh no, I actually think recovery could be swift and easy. Geography has never been less of a factor to economic success as now, and South Africa anyway has a long history of being highly self sufficient in meeting its basic needs.
I'm no economist, but I can't think of much else but local politics holding South Africa back from very effective policy shifts. It's not like we're tied to the EU limiting our level of competitive policy advantages we choose to offer to the world.
Frankly nothing about that sounds plausible to me. You're simultanously assuming that there will be radical decline yet infra and human capital will be OK? So what exactly is declining then?
To start with, civic support for government and civil obedience. These things are what need to rapidly decline to get the ball rolling. The subsequent decline would have to be measured as it unfolds. The only outcome necessary is for a targeted decline that sways just enough public opinion to turn politics toward a reformist direction that self organises thereafter.
You could also go for the more thorough rock bottom model like Zim. Still waiting for their resurgence....
An important distinction to make with Zim is that there it was the government that initiated the rapid decline upon everyone. What I envisage for South Africa is a populace (and its local, private economy) that makes intentioned and calculated moves to inflict decline upon the government, etching away at its relevance until a tipping point of a democratic replacement.
This comes back to my earlier analogy of the government being like a company, and citizens being like customers.
SA business is spineless.
Indeed. However, SA business is made up of South Africans. Ok, perhaps not all business, but hopefully my point is made.
Its good to see people still have hope for SA.
I try to separate hope from my view of SA's potential. I presently have no hope, because I see the decisions and actions being made year after year. However, I've lived in many countries, and SA's potential has become very obvious to me since. Before travelling I never understood how much potential SA has relative to many other struggling nations, and never appreciated how much has been achieved since 1652, 1934, and the 90s. My perspective now is that many South Africans are too distracted by negativity, survival, blind faith, apathy or a mix of all four, to notice how this potential is being squandered.
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