Stock Picks - Darlings and Dogs

How successful have you been in trading your own equities, etfs and funds ?

  • Extremely successful (make a living off my takings)

    Votes: 7 2.6%
  • Beating passive investment returns

    Votes: 128 48.1%
  • About par with normal returns from banks and money markets

    Votes: 48 18.0%
  • Lost a few pennies of spare cash to play with

    Votes: 26 9.8%
  • Should have rather left my money in the bank

    Votes: 21 7.9%
  • Took a knock

    Votes: 19 7.1%
  • Cremated

    Votes: 17 6.4%

  • Total voters
    266

saturnz

Honorary Master
Joined
May 3, 2005
Messages
18,356
Positive for the JSE? At least in the short term?

I can't understand why the FED would do nothing in response to the US inflation numbers, unless ofcourse they want to continue to inflate.

If the SARB raises rates at their next meeting the rand will appreciate a little more.
 

chemfis

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 30, 2008
Messages
130
I can't understand why the FED would do nothing in response to the US inflation numbers, unless ofcourse they want to continue to inflate.

If the SARB raises rates at their next meeting the rand will appreciate a little more.
I think they see inflation as the only way to reduce their massive debt.
 

theratman

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 21, 2008
Messages
11,464
I can't understand why the FED would do nothing in response to the US inflation numbers, unless ofcourse they want to continue to inflate.

If the SARB raises rates at their next meeting the rand will appreciate a little more.
I think they are kicking the can down the road until March? Can't find the article though.
 

W@P

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 10, 2007
Messages
4,373
Sasol having another brilliant day, bucking the trend and riding on the oil price.
good-day-happy-dance.gif
 

Ishould_BeWorking

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 5, 2019
Messages
436
Hoping it's not too late but gonna sell the losers I been holding too long and dump into Sasol, let's see how this test flight goes :D
 

Ishould_BeWorking

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 5, 2019
Messages
436
I can't understand why the FED would do nothing in response to the US inflation numbers, unless ofcourse they want to continue to inflate.

If the SARB raises rates at their next meeting the rand will appreciate a little more.
Shew rand appreciation, politics seem to be in play as usual, this oil price impact on SA worries me
 

InvisibleJim

Expert Member
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
Messages
2,437
Selling at the bottom and buying at the top?
Hopefully not the top. I have one intrinsic valuation calculation putting Sasol at R505 per share fair value which if correct would give a reasonable margin of safety even at today's price - always some assumptions made in these calculations though and who knows what the market will actually do.

I'm not planning to buy more Sasol at this level though. Would like to see it return to the R400 to R430 range at least before I sell and I think it could get there this year. Fingers crossed!
 

W@P

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 10, 2007
Messages
4,373
Hopefully not the top. I have one intrinsic valuation calculation putting Sasol at R505 per share fair value which if correct would give a reasonable margin of safety even at today's price - always some assumptions made in these calculations though and who knows what the market will actually do.

I'm not planning to buy more Sasol at this level though. Would like to see it return to the R400 to R430 range at least before I sell and I think it could get there this year. Fingers crossed!
Yes, I'm also hoping it goes back to the R400's. We are a few friends that bought, some bought at the lowest and some a bit higher. I'm up 110% a few of the others are up 200% - 300%
 

saturnz

Honorary Master
Joined
May 3, 2005
Messages
18,356
Shew rand appreciation, politics seem to be in play as usual, this oil price impact on SA worries me

yeah theres alot of things happening all at once, but generally the higher interest rate difference between us and the US means speculators would engage in carry trades which are in favour of the rand
 

taheera

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 23, 2016
Messages
180
anyone got any info on NUT (NUTRITIONAL) ?
and AEL (ALTRON A)
for me please. waiting in earnest for them to go back to where they used to be...
 

InvisibleJim

Expert Member
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
Messages
2,437
anyone got any info on NUT (NUTRITIONAL) ?
and AEL (ALTRON A)
for me please. waiting in earnest for them to go back to where they used to be...
I got in on Altron when the markets opened after the holidays. I think they're undervalued and in a healthy financial position, returned to profit, improving cashflow and acceptable debt levels. I was actually looking at EOH to see if they were a good bet in their current 'distressed' position but when I started looking at industry competitors, Altron started looking like a better prospect right now - you could take a punt on EOH but I don't think they're quite as far along in their turnaround as Altron is right now.

I'm down a little since the CEO's resignation the other day but my buying decision isn't really affected by this so I'll probably be taking the opportunity to pick up a few more a little cheaper in the next day or two. I think a conservative estimate of Altron's intrinsic value is about R35 per share so looking for a good return within 2-3 years if the market reflects this.
 

handyman007

Expert Member
Joined
Mar 1, 2017
Messages
1,052
I got in on Altron when the markets opened after the holidays. I think they're undervalued and in a healthy financial position, returned to profit, improving cashflow and acceptable debt levels. I was actually looking at EOH to see if they were a good bet in their current 'distressed' position but when I started looking at industry competitors, Altron started looking like a better prospect right now - you could take a punt on EOH but I don't think they're quite as far along in their turnaround as Altron is right now.

I'm down a little since the CEO's resignation the other day but my buying decision isn't really affected by this so I'll probably be taking the opportunity to pick up a few more a little cheaper in the next day or two. I think a conservative estimate of Altron's intrinsic value is about R35 per share so looking for a good return within 2-3 years if the market reflects this.
Good insight. How do you calculate intrinsic value?
 

InvisibleJim

Expert Member
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
Messages
2,437
Good insight. How do you calculate intrinsic value?
Thank you. Discounted Cash Flow Calculation is the method I'm trying to get the hang of but there are others including thumb sucks like the Graham number.

I'm also referencing the reports available at simplywall.st (you get 5 free per month) which I think are a really good template for a layman to evaluate a stock. They also show all their valuation calculations and have a git repository that explains their analysis method which is really transparent of them.

I don't think you can take any intrinsic valuation calculation as gospel but having a good margin of safety is intended to compensate the calculation being a bit off.
 

handyman007

Expert Member
Joined
Mar 1, 2017
Messages
1,052
Thank you. Discounted Cash Flow Calculation is the method I'm trying to get the hang of but there are others including thumb sucks like the Graham number.

I'm also referencing the reports available at simplywall.st (you get 5 free per month) which I think are a really good template for a layman to evaluate a stock. They also show all their valuation calculations and have a git repository that explains their analysis method which is really transparent of them.

I don't think you can take any intrinsic valuation calculation as gospel but having a good margin of safety is intended to compensate the calculation being a bit off.
Cool, thanks. Yeah I use Simply Wall Street as well, great website. Every little bit helps.
 
Top