Stock Picks - Darlings and Dogs

How successful have you been in trading your own equities, etfs and funds ?

  • Extremely successful (make a living off my takings)

    Votes: 7 2.6%
  • Beating passive investment returns

    Votes: 128 47.8%
  • About par with normal returns from banks and money markets

    Votes: 48 17.9%
  • Lost a few pennies of spare cash to play with

    Votes: 26 9.7%
  • Should have rather left my money in the bank

    Votes: 22 8.2%
  • Took a knock

    Votes: 20 7.5%
  • Cremated

    Votes: 17 6.3%

  • Total voters
    268

bromster

Executive Member
Joined
Nov 2, 2012
Messages
5,395
The Fed has made absolutely no hints that it will stop raising rates.

Any equity rally is a bull trap.

I agree with Burry.

I don't short the market, but I'm slowly building a USD position to take advantage of the carnage when the US officially goes into recession at the end of Q2.

I think that's when everything breaks. There is already a dollar liquidity crisis and they're just getting started. If the US enters recession, entire countries will be fighting for dollars to hedge against devaluation of their local currencies.

When this happened in 2007-08, everything crashed. The Fed immediately dropped rates from 5% to 0%, which helped pump liquidity and cushion the landing slightly.

Now the Fed rates are barely at 1% and the their TGA piggy bank is already spent thanks to uncle Joe.

The news is saying the recession will likely be milder than 07-08. That's when you know for sure that it will be worse.
 
Joined
Mar 6, 2004
Messages
38,892
The Fed has made absolutely no hints that it will stop raising rates.

Any equity rally is a bull trap.

I agree with Burry.

I don't short the market, but I'm slowly building a USD position to take advantage of the carnage when the US officially goes into recession at the end of Q2.

I think that's when everything breaks. There is already a dollar liquidity crisis and they're just getting started. If the US enters recession, entire countries will be fighting for dollars to hedge against devaluation of their local currencies.

When this happened in 2007-08, everything crashed. The Fed immediately dropped rates from 5% to 0%, which helped pump liquidity and cushion the landing slightly.

Now the Fed rates are barely at 1% and the their TGA piggy bank is already spent thanks to uncle Joe.

The news is saying the recession will likely be milder than 07-08. That's when you know for sure that it will be worse.
Specifically do you mean purchasing US dollars? Or investing in the NewWave USD ETN?
 

rvZA

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
10,825
American markets p!ssing blood all over the place. Single biggest one-day decline ever recorded in the US's history. This is only the beginning of the fall. Expect huge losses more to come. The Biden regime made a decision to kill off demand with rates hikes and killing off the American economy in the process.
 

bromster

Executive Member
Joined
Nov 2, 2012
Messages
5,395
Beware the failed rally.

Agreed. Further downside incoming. Friday's close will be interesting...
 

rvZA

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
10,825

White House admits stock market 'not something we keep an eye on every day'​


White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Wednesday that the stock market, which continues to witness erratic trading amid soaring inflation, is not something the White House tends to "keep an eye on every day."


Asked about the stock market's recent performance amid rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve and the potential for "gains that have defined" President Biden's presidency being erased, Jean-Pierre said "nothing has changed" on how the White House views the stock market's behavior.

"Nothing has changed on how we see the stock market," Jean-Pierre told reporters. "That's not something we keep an eye on every day, so I'm not gonna comment on that from here."


If this is how the US government sees their stockmarket, you would be much better off to sell off all US investments and rather move to investing in the EU, UK, Aus, China or Japan.
 

Dylan_G

Expert Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
Messages
2,345
Speaking USD recession...

I am holding some Vanguard VTI (US Total Stock) ETF in my EE USD account.

Even after the massive dip over the past year, I'm still 10% in the green.

If there is gonna be further downside (impending recession), I'm feeling like selling now would be a good idea. Yes, I've already lost a bit of value, but would prefer to sell while I'm up and then have cash to buy at a later point.

Makes sense right? Or should I just STFU and hodl? (Time in the market vs timing the market and all that.)
 

rvZA

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
10,825
Speaking USD recession...

I am holding some Vanguard VTI (US Total Stock) ETF in my EE USD account.

Even after the massive dip over the past year, I'm still 10% in the green.

If there is gonna be further downside (impending recession), I'm feeling like selling now would be a good idea. Yes, I've already lost a bit of value, but would prefer to sell while I'm up and then have cash to buy at a later point.

Makes sense right? Or should I just STFU and hodl? (Time in the market vs timing the market and all that.)

The US markets are days from becoming a bear market in any event. A US recession now seems to be unavoidable. The US government yesterday admitted that they have no interest in the stockmarkets. Biden still mounts one bad policy after the other and doubles down on each. While you are still in the green, take the little profits you can. Revisit the US markets after 2024 and see if there has been change in the US leadership. There are more losses coming in the US markets and they are still going to be much bigger than what we have experienced the past 2 years.
 

ronz91

Expert Member
Joined
Apr 15, 2014
Messages
2,400
Speaking USD recession...

I am holding some Vanguard VTI (US Total Stock) ETF in my EE USD account.

Even after the massive dip over the past year, I'm still 10% in the green.

If there is gonna be further downside (impending recession), I'm feeling like selling now would be a good idea. Yes, I've already lost a bit of value, but would prefer to sell while I'm up and then have cash to buy at a later point.

Makes sense right? Or should I just STFU and hodl? (Time in the market vs timing the market and all that.)
lol always hodl
 
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Joined
Mar 6, 2004
Messages
38,892
Speaking USD recession...

I am holding some Vanguard VTI (US Total Stock) ETF in my EE USD account.

Even after the massive dip over the past year, I'm still 10% in the green.

If there is gonna be further downside (impending recession), I'm feeling like selling now would be a good idea. Yes, I've already lost a bit of value, but would prefer to sell while I'm up and then have cash to buy at a later point.

Makes sense right? Or should I just STFU and hodl? (Time in the market vs timing the market and all that.)
Hodl.

Markets have always reached new highs after each subsequent recession.
 
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Reactions: 3WA

RiaX

Executive Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2012
Messages
5,936
How you guys keep USD ? You got a bank account with an American bank ? Or do you utilize local bank for example services like standard banks shyft account for example ?
 
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