Stock Picks - Darlings and Dogs

How successful have you been in trading your own equities, etfs and funds ?

  • Extremely successful (make a living off my takings)

    Votes: 4 1.9%
  • Beating passive investment returns

    Votes: 98 47.1%
  • About par with normal returns from banks and money markets

    Votes: 38 18.3%
  • Lost a few pennies of spare cash to play with

    Votes: 21 10.1%
  • Should have rather left my money in the bank

    Votes: 17 8.2%
  • Took a knock

    Votes: 16 7.7%
  • Cremated

    Votes: 14 6.7%

  • Total voters
    208
Joined
Mar 6, 2004
Messages
36,042
Wonder if the Chinese government will bail out Evergrande or if they lets them crash first to prove no onw is bigger than the state?

It's complicated. I don't think it will be saved even though it could be (if Xi so desired).

President Xi Jinping had also run out of patience with the excesses of the property sector, say observers, and Beijing formulated “three red lines” to reduce debt levels in the sector. Evergrande is proving to be the first big victim.

Specifically, it says that the ratio of liabilities to assets must be below 70 per cent, the ratio of net debt to equity must be below 100 per cent and the ratio of cash to short-term debt must be at least 100 per cent. In June, Evergrande was failing on all three metrics and was therefore forbidden from raising additional debt — triggering its current crisis. ‘Common prosperity’ If it is true that Beijing is the main cause of Evergrande’s predicament, then it stands to reason that it can end the current market meltdown by taking its foot off the property sector’s throat.

But deep structural forces in the economy have convinced China’s policymakers that property can no longer be a reliable dynamo for sustainable economic growth, analysts say. This is not only because of Xi’s famous phrase that “houses are for living in, not for speculation,” made in a 2017 speech. For one thing, the demand picture has changed utterly from when Beijing pushed through free market reforms in the late 1990s that touched off the biggest real estate boom in human history.

 

rvZA

Executive Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
5,485
Some Fantastic news for the US economy:

House passes bill raising debt ceiling and averting shutdown​


The House of Representatives voted Tuesday night to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government through Dec. 3 and raise the $28 trillion debt ceiling.

H.R. 5305, which passed in a party-line vote of 220-211, will need the support of at least 10 Republicans to pass in the Senate.

Citing opposition to President Joe Biden's agenda, nearly every Republican in the Senate has expressed opposition to tying the debt ceiling into the bill that funds the government. The federal government faces a looming shutdown on Oct. 1 if Congress cannot reach a consensus by the Sept. 30 deadline.

The government is also slated to hit the debt ceiling by mid-October, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed could lead to "economic catastrophe."


They will not get the required 10 votes in the Senate. Yes, may lead to a temporary collapse in the US economy, investors fleeing the markets, stocks to crash massively.

But, it will open the door for the Republicans to take the government back in 2024. Get better leaders in place and start rebuilding the country again.

Once that happens, stocks will be up for grabs at low prices and many will become millionaires by 2028.
 

saturnz

Honorary Master
Joined
May 3, 2005
Messages
16,869
oil is at the highest levels in 3 years, if it goes up another $6 then that will be a seven year high
 

rvZA

Executive Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
5,485
Out of interest....

In how many companies are you invested / have in your portfolio?

Are you gambling on 5, 6 or 7 companies or are you more diversified?
 

saturnz

Honorary Master
Joined
May 3, 2005
Messages
16,869
as much as I want this to be the start of the bleed, its not yet the start of anything, markets will recover from this blip
 

rvZA

Executive Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
5,485
as much as I want this to be the start of the bleed, its not yet the start of anything, markets will recover from this blip

Perhaps a very temporary recovery? Yes, naturally, that is how the markets work.

The US is in the biggest trouble they have ever faced. Yellen recently announced that if the debt ceiling is not suspended, the US will default on their debt. The markets already reacted badly to this announcement and is an indication of the outflows that will occur if they do increase the debt ceiling.

And then you have the inflation ripping the country apart at this point in time. A threat of a possible government shutdown. A government wanting to spend trillions more, which they do not have to spend. Threats by government of taxing the rich and businesses, ignoring the effects it would have on the middle-class and the poor.

Basically, any decision they make now will have a serious impact on their markets and a big decline is inevitable. This is already the consesus of many economists and investors alike. Now is not a good time to be invested in US markets at all, unless you are shorting them all.
 

saturnz

Honorary Master
Joined
May 3, 2005
Messages
16,869
Perhaps a very temporary recovery? Yes, naturally, that is how the markets work.

The US is in the biggest trouble they have ever faced. Yellen recently announced that if the debt ceiling is not suspended, the US will default on their debt. The markets already reacted badly to this announcement and is an indication of the outflows that will occur if they do increase the debt ceiling.

And then you have the inflation ripping the country apart at this point in time. A threat of a possible government shutdown. A government wanting to spend trillions more, which they do not have to spend. Threats by government of taxing the rich and businesses, ignoring the effects it would have on the middle-class and the poor.

Basically, any decision they make now will have a serious impact on their markets and a big decline is inevitable. This is already the consesus of many economists and investors alike. Now is not a good time to be invested in US markets at all, unless you are shorting them all.

as long as the FED holds interest rates low and doesn't change its QE stance (no tapering) everything is going to go up

I would love for things to go down, since I'm positioned for a collapse, but its not going to happen until the FED changes its position
 

rvZA

Executive Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
5,485
as long as the FED holds interest rates low and doesn't change its QE stance (no tapering) everything is going to go up

I would love for things to go down, since I'm positioned for a collapse, but its not going to happen until the FED changes its position

Even if they want to hold rates, they can't. Inflation is simply out of control in the US. A member of the FED admitted the past week inflation was not transitory and that they were wrong. Problem is, they will need to control this rise and can't simply sit back and do nothing or keep rates unchanged.

Again, they are in a catch-22 and no way out will have any good results for the US,

Keep your positions ready for a collapse, because it is coming and it may be rather sooner than later.
 

saturnz

Honorary Master
Joined
May 3, 2005
Messages
16,869
Even if they want to hold rates, they can't. Inflation is simply out of control in the US.

and the effect of inflation is a rise in prices, thus prices will continue to rise, including market prices
 

rvZA

Executive Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
5,485
and the effect of inflation is a rise in prices, thus prices will continue to rise, including market prices

You can control the rise in inflation effectively with rates, it is being done globally. But, you need to be proactive. You may get to a point, and I suspect the US has crossed that point, where this will no longer be possible and inflation may run. But, the effect of this would be hyperinflation in the near future and then a total collapse of the economy.
 
Top