It's a bear market. Correction started around 4/5 January and the S&P500 already shed almost 7% of its value on a daily basis up to yesterday. Nasdaq's fall started a day earlier. This whole month shed almost 11.5%. The same with the Dow, continuous fall this month shedding around 4.1%.
No end in sight. Investors getting more nervous. I expect further selloffs. The biggest fall will likely come when the Fed hike the first rates.
I suspect the correction already started. Just not sure if it will end this year or the next. Perhaps even continue through 2024. Many investors thought this would have started end of last year. They were not really wrong. And they also did predict a massive fall in the markets. Some speaking as much as 60-70%.
We are not close to a bear market by traditional definitions. Actually, the S&P500 is not even in a correction yet. It is still in a pull back, just above correction territory on the graph. The Nasdaq only went into a correction on Tuesday. Difference between a pull back, correction and bear market explained below:
I believe the fall now will be bigger than when the rate hikes actually start to happen. If you look at stocks during 2020/2021, stay-at-home stocks got pushed higher whenever undesirable news about the virus was published, while airline stocks for example took an immediate nosedive, and vice versa. What I mean to say is that everything is already priced in and investors now know rates will get hiked faster and more - thus the current sell off.
The next few months should tell us in what direction we are heading in the market, but yeah, who knows?