Stock Picks - Darlings and Dogs

How successful have you been in trading your own equities, etfs and funds ?

  • Extremely successful (make a living off my takings)

    Votes: 7 2.6%
  • Beating passive investment returns

    Votes: 130 47.6%
  • About par with normal returns from banks and money markets

    Votes: 49 17.9%
  • Lost a few pennies of spare cash to play with

    Votes: 26 9.5%
  • Should have rather left my money in the bank

    Votes: 22 8.1%
  • Took a knock

    Votes: 21 7.7%
  • Cremated

    Votes: 18 6.6%

  • Total voters
    273

rvZA

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
11,362
So is it better to wait it out or to rather move it somewhere else or just to have it sitting in tfsa ?
My 4IR is also dumping :-(
I'm also down 13% on my S&P 500 inside my tfsa

Firstly, American markets are dangerous at this point in time. It is busy with a correction and there is no end in sight. Biden himself also said that they would be happy with a 9-10% growth rate. If this is their targeted growth, I would in any event not want to risk my money in such markets.

Just my opinion, and I mentioned it elsewhere in last week. I think the South African markets will outpace the US markets this year and probably 2023 and 2024 as well.
 

Crankshaft

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 22, 2013
Messages
257
So what should I do with the S&P500 in my tfsa ?
Would it be better to move it to something else, or ride this pending doom ?
Have a clear investment strategy and stick to it. Nobody knows what will happen so you will shoot yourself in the foot if you keep trying to swap around and chase the gains. If you contribute monthly then now is perfect for dollar cost averaging. It WILL recover again, assuming you are in it for the long run, as you should be.
 
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Crankshaft

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 22, 2013
Messages
257
It's a bear market. Correction started around 4/5 January and the S&P500 already shed almost 7% of its value on a daily basis up to yesterday. Nasdaq's fall started a day earlier. This whole month shed almost 11.5%. The same with the Dow, continuous fall this month shedding around 4.1%.

No end in sight. Investors getting more nervous. I expect further selloffs. The biggest fall will likely come when the Fed hike the first rates.

I suspect the correction already started. Just not sure if it will end this year or the next. Perhaps even continue through 2024. Many investors thought this would have started end of last year. They were not really wrong. And they also did predict a massive fall in the markets. Some speaking as much as 60-70%.
We are not close to a bear market by traditional definitions. Actually, the S&P500 is not even in a correction yet. It is still in a pull back, just above correction territory on the graph. The Nasdaq only went into a correction on Tuesday. Difference between a pull back, correction and bear market explained below:


I believe the fall now will be bigger than when the rate hikes actually start to happen. If you look at stocks during 2020/2021, stay-at-home stocks got pushed higher whenever undesirable news about the virus was published, while airline stocks for example took an immediate nosedive, and vice versa. What I mean to say is that everything is already priced in and investors now know rates will get hiked faster and more - thus the current sell off.

The next few months should tell us in what direction we are heading in the market, but yeah, who knows?
 

L-Dog

Expert Member
Joined
Oct 25, 2017
Messages
2,737
I am going to take the opportunity to engage some cash into rebalancing my holdings this evening. I am considering some Etherum but I will do that last if at all.

Good play with the utility that eth has it will definitely be a good play especially at these prices, it might dip further but will definitely hit 5k this year or next year
 

rvZA

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
11,362
With interest rates now seeming to rise world-wide, best option for making money would likely be to dump stock and put that funds into a fixed savings account. The bleed will not stop anytime soon.
 

rvZA

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
11,362
$9K down today and the US markets aren't even open. Ouch.

Pre-market averaged about 0.4% down. They now seem to be close to 2% down. Your losses should now have quadruppled.
 

JayM

Expert Member
Joined
Oct 30, 2005
Messages
3,559
Pre-market averaged about 0.4% down. They now seem to be close to 2% down. Your losses should now have quadruppled.

No they haven't. Most of my investments are LSE listed ETFs, so they were pricing in the futures already.
 

saturnz

Honorary Master
Joined
May 3, 2005
Messages
18,466
yields are not rising, meaning people are sitting on cash and waiting for the interest rate announcement on wednesday, and then things will pick up again

in the meantime I'm trimming some of my short positions
 

rvZA

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 3, 2021
Messages
11,362
yields are not rising, meaning people are sitting on cash and waiting for the interest rate announcement on wednesday, and then things will pick up again

in the meantime I'm trimming some of my short positions

Nope. The first interest rate of at least 4 announced by the fed.

Things are about to get even worse from hereon.

Until such time inflation is under control and interest rate hikes no longer needed, then the correction will come and things will get better from then on.
 
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