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Toothless

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chrisvv said:
I recently read this article: http://www.fin24.com/Finweek/Opinion/winners-losers-and-hero-to-zero-of-2015-20151215

An interesting possible investment looks to be Tongaat. Low P.E and they offer a dividend.

Thoughts?
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Tongaat is not a good idea for 2016.

Commodity price for sugar is set to decline for another year. I suspect this will be driven by a lower consumer demand as well. In 2016 we as consumers will feel the pinch of higher inflation and a number of increases in interest rates. Consumers will have less money to spend, which will affect the demand and in turn affect the price as well as Tongaat's share price.

As for the mining industry, my recommendation is to stay out in total. The industry is heading for a collapse. The risks are too big.
 
Swa

Swa

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Toothless was spewing a bunch of crap.

As for mining shares, if someone is looking for a decent return, Aquarius Platinum seems to be the way to go. Just beware of the risk and be prepared to pull out when everyone realises it isn't worth nearly as much as it's being valued at.
 
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Bundu

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Swa said:
Toothless was spewing a bunch of crap.

As for mining shares, if someone is looking for a decent return, Aquarius Platinum seems to be the way to go. Just beware of the risk and be prepared to pull out when everyone realises it isn't worth nearly as much as it's being valued at.
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it's going to be interesting to see what happens with the Sibanye offer for Aquarius - if it doesn't go ahead, I think they might need a rights issue?
 
Galactica

Galactica

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Swa said:
Toothless was spewing a bunch of crap.

As for mining shares, if someone is looking for a decent return, Aquarius Platinum seems to be the way to go. Just beware of the risk and be prepared to pull out when everyone realises it isn't worth nearly as much as it's being valued at.
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The price has doubled with the Sibanye offer.
 
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Bundu

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yeh, and that could result in the deal being cancelled - then the share will drop back to where it was
 
Swa

Swa

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It seems it jumped 75% on announcement but was trading at nearly R2 a month before and has also been climbing on its own. So in essence another Lonmin but with less chance of tanking.
 
ActivateD

ActivateD

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I think my 2016 portfolio will be companies that are doing things outside of South Africa. Busy compiling it.
 
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syfret

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Dec 4, 2015
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My current portfolio, and likely one I'll be maintaining for much of 2016, is a mix of personal gut and Simon Brown's gut

I have positions in:
COH
DSY
MTN
DBXWD
STXIND
LON (a very small position for laughs)

Not a large portfolio by any account... It's sitting at around R52k... But I'm planning on adding to my current positions during the year and adding some SNV in the next week or two.
 
Swa

Swa

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Blue Label Telecoms climbed 10% in 10 days with the Cell C recapitalisation deal.
 
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chrisvv

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Thanks for the input guys. Something interesting about the Lonmin situation and the Sibanye buyout offer:

With regards to Lonmin, the PIC (Public investment Corp) have upped their stake in the company from 9.9% to 29.9% after the consolidation(A very risky move considering the knife's edge Lonmin is hovering over). A further 1 Billion shares (before consolidation) where underwritten by HSBC, JP Morgan Casenove and Standard bank. Not sure what their share ownership was pre-underwriting. Big shareholders include Standard Life Investments Ltd. (5.39%), Morgan Stanley Securities Ltd (2.99%) and Deutsche Bank AG(2.99%). The public owns about 25% by my calculations now (Many people sold)

This kind of behaviour from big players seems very opportunistic to me, especially taking into account that many people got rid of their shares just before the big players scooped them up, but maybe this is just my paranoia speaking.

A similar thing is seen with Aquarius Plat, a big player (Sibanye Gold) flat out offers to buy them out in an environment where everyone mostly agrees that commodities are very risky at the moment.

There is a lot of cash moving around an area where I would have expected a lot of caution from those with all the knowledge and foresight.

Opinions?
 
Swa

Swa

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They know something we don't? If you buy out all the platinum producers you can effectively control production and price.
 
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Bundu

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chrisvv said:
Thanks for the input guys. Something interesting about the Lonmin situation and the Sibanye buyout offer:

With regards to Lonmin, the PIC (Public investment Corp) have upped their stake in the company from 9.9% to 29.9% after the consolidation(A very risky move considering the knife's edge Lonmin is hovering over). A further 1 Billion shares (before consolidation) where underwritten by HSBC, JP Morgan Casenove and Standard bank. Not sure what their share ownership was pre-underwriting. Big shareholders include Standard Life Investments Ltd. (5.39%), Morgan Stanley Securities Ltd (2.99%) and Deutsche Bank AG(2.99%). The public owns about 25% by my calculations now (Many people sold)

This kind of behaviour from big players seems very opportunistic to me, especially taking into account that many people got rid of their shares just before the big players scooped them up, but maybe this is just my paranoia speaking.

A similar thing is seen with Aquarius Plat, a big player (Sibanye Gold) flat out offers to buy them out in an environment where everyone mostly agrees that commodities are very risky at the moment.

There is a lot of cash moving around an area where I would have expected a lot of caution from those with all the knowledge and foresight.

Opinions?
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all those shares are freely available, so if you think those big companies know something we don't, buy those shares
 
Swa

Swa

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Question that should be answered is what happens to the shares when Lonmin delists?
 
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