Stock Watch [Disclaimer: "by non-registered amateurs"]

[Swa]

Completely wrong.

I rely on extensive research and have a far guarantee than your short term trades has.

My portfolio is a testimony to this.

I am in the green, heavy in the green and will remain there.

My year on year growth out performed the market for the past 5 years.

The only share I am in the red, after I made a substantial profit is Lonmin, and why is that? It's because Lonmin was done on hope without any research.

That's it.

And yet you say that your buying down is for long term (10+ year) return. You made money on Lonmin while buying it low and selling it high. Where is the investment outlook on that? It's high risk trading on a volatile stock and not buying into quality companies with a strong future outlook. I'm sorry but I've yet to see any examples of this buying down into quality companies working any better than researching the upturns. Probably because these are all your future predictions that still has to pan out.

I'm not saying you won't be making money from it but you won't be making 1%/day like on what you call my "short terms trades" and it's quite dangerous advice to give on a forum.

 

[Thor]

And yet you say that your buying down is for long term (10+ year) return. You made money on Lonmin while buying it low and selling it high. Where is the investment outlook on that? It's high risk trading on a volatile stock and not buying into quality companies with a strong future outlook. I'm sorry but I've yet to see any examples of this buying down into quality companies working any better than researching the upturns. Probably because these are all your future predictions that still has to pan out.

I'm not saying you won't be making money from it but you won't be making 1%/day like on what you call my "short terms trades" and it's quite dangerous advice to give on a forum.

Go back and read what I said.

Lonmin had ZERO bearing here it was a gamble from the very start. There was literally ZERO effort put into it a bunch of us oaks on mybb took the fall and played with it so I dumped 20K in it for shiats and giggles.

 

[Thor]

And yet you say that your buying down is for long term (10+ year) return. You made money on Lonmin while buying it low and selling it high. Where is the investment outlook on that? It's high risk trading on a volatile stock and not buying into quality companies with a strong future outlook. I'm sorry but I've yet to see any examples of this buying down into quality companies working any better than researching the upturns. Probably because these are all your future predictions that still has to pan out.

I'm not saying you won't be making money from it but you won't be making 1%/day like on what you call my "short terms trades" and it's quite dangerous advice to give on a forum.

Also go read amd listen to for instance Simon brown, or that spokesperson at coronation or heck Jannie mouton for that matter.

All of them and what's his name Jordan that former FNB guy


All of them disagree with you. Quite frankly, I'll rather listen to them

 

[Swa]

Go back and read what I said.

Lonmin had ZERO bearing here it was a gamble from the very start. There was literally ZERO effort put into it a bunch of us oaks on mybb took the fall and played with it so I dumped 20K in it for shiats and giggles.

I know what you said. My point was that it's the only example you can give that made any money and it wasn't based on your strategy. I fail to see how your portfolio can be heavy in the green when practically every equity has been taking a nosedive and most are down 25% since year start.

Also go read amd listen to for instance Simon brown, or that spokesperson at coronation or heck Jannie mouton for that matter.

All of them and what's his name Jordan that former FNB guy


All of them disagree with you. Quite frankly, I'll rather listen to them

I doubt any of them actually tells people to just buy when everyone is selling.

 

[Thor]

I know what you said. My point was that it's the only example you can give that made any money and it wasn't based on your strategy. I fail to see how your portfolio can be heavy in the green when practically every equity has been taking a nosedive and most are down 25% since year start.


I doubt any of them actually tells people to just buy when everyone is selling.

All of them tells you to buy you need to know what you buy.


Lonmin was the example I used because it appeared to he the one you looked at.

The rest of my portfolio is heavily in the green because unlike you I'm not concerned about little fluctuations I've been building it up since 2009 this you are seeing on the JSE is specials season and it doesn't last longer than am ABSOLUTE maximum of 18 months

What km trying to say, this is a little red blimp in a long term portfolio my portfolio might be down 18% the last 3 months but it's still heavily in the green since inception and will continue to outgrow the markets.

That's why I said in my long term investing strategy this is bonus season. Almost like a bonus round.

As for traders.

Heck I don't know.
I have zero trading knowledge, I'm a investor

 

[thehuman]

@Thor187 be careful we don't want another toothless scenario

 

[Thor]

@Thor187 be careful we don't want another toothless scenario

What exactly does that mean?

 

[Swa]

All of them tells you to buy you need to know what you buy.

So they DO agree with me.

Lonmin was the example I used because it appeared to he the one you looked at.

The rest of my portfolio is heavily in the green because unlike you I'm not concerned about little fluctuations I've been building it up since 2009 this you are seeing on the JSE is specials season and it doesn't last longer than am ABSOLUTE maximum of 18 months

What km trying to say, this is a little red blimp in a long term portfolio my portfolio might be down 18% the last 3 months but it's still heavily in the green since inception and will continue to outgrow the markets.

That's why I said in my long term investing strategy this is bonus season. Almost like a bonus round.

As for traders.

Heck I don't know.
I have zero trading knowledge, I'm a investor

Who says I'm concerned about little fluctuations? Capitec going down 25% in 40 days is not a little fluctuation which is why I got rid of that and Curro and bought into Aquarius, Sibanye, and JSE instead. Both mining companies are expected to continue growing while Capitec and Curro are expected to continue falling. I've already made up R200 of the R500 I lost due to forum advice to do the opposite instead of trusting my initial gut.

You've been building up your portfolio since 2009 with companies that were growing. Your portfolio is currently NOT outgrowing the markets. Buying down while things are expected to be heading down is a strategy you're employing now because of the downturn. That's a future prediction that still has to pan out, if it does. You claim to be an investor but what you're doing now is actually more like trading. I doubt the people you mention are giving this advice.

 

[Swa]

@Thor187 be careful we don't want another toothless scenario

I don't think we're heading there. Toothless was a known clown. Thor doesn't appear to be heading for a meltdown either. Unless my prediction is wrong.

 

[thehuman]

What exactly does that mean?

i don't want another member of forum banned coz he lost his cool (not in any way disrespectful to you tho)

 

[Neo_X]

i don't want another member of forum banned coz he lost his cool (not in any way disrespectful to you tho)

i believe tootless was attacking a brand / platform. Thor is just giving us some hard facts with regards to investing. not seeing any problems here - he is my hero!

ok that was maybe a bit much - i followed him down the lonmin rabbit hole

 

[Hamster]

Toothless was House, a fscking troll

 

[Stevi]

Would buying shares in the large banks (FirstRand, Nedbank, etc) make any sense with the economy going as it is?

My thinking (which may be wrong) is that people will get into more debt over time, and the banks will cash in on it.

Any logic there?

 

[Hamster]

Other than the financial index getting hit REALLY hard...sure

 

[Purply]

I wouldn't buy anything banking related right now, but that's just my view for today.

After reading everything posted by SWA and THor it's clear that they both have different strategies when it comes to making money, neither of them being wrong.

That's the main difference between an investor and a trader, long term and short term.

Besides, not everyone has time to sit in front of their pc's all day long waiting for the right times to buy/sell

Back on topic...... looking at what has transpired so far today I'm actually not sure where to invest for the day. Oil made a slight recovery, which didn't last long as profit taking took out a large chunk, plus with the FED meeting outcome being so unclear, it's really hard to gauge what's going to be hot for the day. And then naturally the Reserve Bank outcome will also have to be factored in eventually.

Guess I'll just keep most in Gold for now until the JSE opens and see what the markets bring.

 

[Thor]

So they DO agree with me.


Who says I'm concerned about little fluctuations? Capitec going down 25% in 40 days is not a little fluctuation which is why I got rid of that and Curro and bought into Aquarius, Sibanye, and JSE instead. Both mining companies are expected to continue growing while Capitec and Curro are expected to continue falling. I've already made up R200 of the R500 I lost due to forum advice to do the opposite instead of trusting my initial gut.

You've been building up your portfolio since 2009 with companies that were growing. Your portfolio is currently NOT outgrowing the markets. Buying down while things are expected to be heading down is a strategy you're employing now because of the downturn. That's a future prediction that still has to pan out, if it does. You claim to be an investor but what you're doing now is actually more like trading. I doubt the people you mention are giving this advice.

Okey let me just clear something, I think this all happened because of too little information.

@SWA here is my situation, I ONLY buy down in capitec and curro, that is all however those two together only makes up around 10% of my portfolio, I am invested in gold, DBXwd - divtrax - property I really do have a quite diversity of a portfolio.

So to be clear I am not buying down in every company just in those I see as quality "managed" companies.

Regarding the green, my portfolio is green becuase other sectors and businesses are still doing good.

I don't think we're heading there. Toothless was a known clown. Thor doesn't appear to be heading for a meltdown either. Unless my prediction is wrong.

I'm not melting down guys! I am gechill soos 'n daga walm

i don't want another member of forum banned coz he lost his cool (not in any way disrespectful to you tho)

I will never! I love you guys

 

[Thor]

Wat besig is om op die markte te gebeur en wat u nou moet doen

Wat tans besig is om op aandeelmarkte te gebeur is dat die groot
val, wat ons vir 2016 voorspel het, op 'n stadium vanjaar sal plaasvind.
Oor die afgelope paar weke het die JSE Algehele Indeks, soos ons vroeg in
Desember 2015 voorspel het, begin daal. Die JSE was op 'n stadium met
16% af. Ten spyte van daardie val, is die JSE steeds oorwaardeer.
Wanneer 'n aandeelmark met 20% of meer af is, is dit in beermark-terrein.
Die JSE is dus gevaarlik naby aan 'n beermark wat baie ver kan val.
Soos Maandagoggend Vooruitsig gereeld vir u sê, sal die JSE op 'n stadium
met meer as 50% val sodat dit kan terugkeer na 'n redelike waarde.
U kan op die grafiek sien dat as die JSE beslissend deur die rooi stippellyn
breek, daar eers weer steun by die rooi soliede lyn by 38 000 sal wees.

Tot verlede week was daar 'n bloedbad op die markte. 'n Regte bloedbad.
Die markte wêreldwyd het vanjaar begin met die slegste wegspring wat
daar nog ooit aan die begin van enige jaar was!
Soos ons op die vorige bladsy gesê het, is aandeelmarkte wêreldwyd besig om
hard te val. Dit word veroorsaak deur die Federale Reserwe wat ongetwyfeld
'n fout begaan het deur rentekoerse op 16 Desember 2015 te verhoog.
Sentrale bankiers besef dat die Fed 'n fout gemaak het. Om die vrees op
die markte te laat bedaar en die Fed uit hul dilemma te help, het die
Europese Sentrale Bank verlede week Donderdag aangekondig dat hulle
verdere kwantitatiewe verslapping (QE) in die Europese ekonomie sal toepas.
Die verligtingslopie wat tans op die JSE en markte wêreldwyd voorkom,
word net tydelik aangehelp deur die ECB. Op 'n stadium later in 2016 sal
die JSE en alle ander aandeelmarkte met 'n val begin wat die grootste in
die geskiedenis sal wees. Maandagoggend Vooruitsig monitor die markte
haarfyn en sal u dadelik van enige groot verwikkelinge in kennis stel.

 

[Thor]

Wat tans besig is om met die rand te gebeur

Wat tans besig is om met die rand te gebeur, is dat besonder lae
kommoditeitspryse besig is om die rand verskriklik te laat verswak.

Soos u in die 30-jaar grafiek hieronder kan sien, was die rand nog nooit so swak
soos dit tans is nie. Vanoggend het dit R16.45 vir een VSA dollar gekos.

U kan op die grafiek sien dat die rand van 2005 tot 2011 besig was om
geleidelik te verswak omdat kommoditeitspryse sterk was.

In 2011 het kommoditeitspryse egter in duie begin stort, soos Prestige Bulletin voor
daardie stadium absoluut korrek voorspel het, sou gebeur.

Indien die ECB en ander sentrale banke, soos Japan, weer QE begin toepas, wat ons dink
hulle sal, kan kommoditeitspryse vir 'n paar maande begin styg en kan die
rand weer versterk.

Die rand kan moontlik terugkom na R12.60 vir 'n dollar, wat ons met die rooi lyn vir u hieronder op die grafiek aandui.

 

[Thor]

Wat u nou moet doen

Wat u nou moet doen is om seker te maak dat u net hoë risiko geld op
die markte belê, waarmee u 'n daling in die waarde daarvan vir 'n hele
paar jaar sal kan hanteer.

As aandeelmarkte en kommoditeitspryse tydelik begin styg en die rand
tydelik begin versterk, moet u versigtig bly omdat dit net vir ongeveer 6
tot 12 maande sal wees. Daarna kan die rand weer vinnig verswak.

Aandeelmarkte, kommoditeitspryse en die rand sal na so 'n tydperk baie
hard val. Dit sal gebeur omdat sentrale banke op 'n stadium beheer oor
hul lande se ekonomieë sal verloor.

In Suid-Afrika sal die Reserwe Bank ook op daardie stadium beheer oor
ons ekonomie verloor, omdat hulle te hoë rentekoerse sal gebruik om 'n
besonder swak rand te ondersteun.

Wanneer dit alles gebeur sal markte vir 'n jaar of twee wêreldwyd in duie
stort. Soos altyd sal Maandagoggend Vooruitsig u op hoogte hou van wat
gebeur en wat u moet doen om rykdom te skep terwyl almal rondom u
armer word.

 

[Hamster]

Sources Thor, sources.