STOP screaming

[rpm]

http://mybroadband.co.za/news/Telecoms/1321.html

SOUTH AFRICAN CONSUMERS are set for a bumpy ride over the next few years as a massive shake-out in the telecoms industry takes hold.

 

[krycor]

i wanna see gov buy out telkoms LL but i doubt thats the kind of involvement they want as it won't be as profitable

 

[Gatecrasher]

I just don't see Telkom selling its 50% of Vodacom to Vodaphone. If DoC wants 50% SA ownership of undersea cables, you can be 101% certain they'll want to retain 50% SA ownership in Vodacom. The only way I can see Telkom shedding Vodacom is in a BEE transaction, or if Vodacom gets listed on the JSE, and Telkom unbundles its Vodacom shares to its shareholders.

Apart from the competition commission putting a halt to MTN buying anything belonging to Telkom, MTN has to be extremely wary of purchasing assests which government might currently or in future view as a strategic or national asset and subject to heavy regulation. They could well end up purchasing liabilities rather than assets.

 

[ic]

I just don't see Telkom selling its 50% of Vodacom to Vodaphone. If DoC wants 50% SA ownership of undersea cables, you can be 101% certain they'll want to retain 50% SA ownership in Vodacom. The only way I can see Telkom shedding Vodacom is in a BEE transaction, or if Vodacom gets listed on the JSE, and Telkom unbundles its Vodacom shares to its shareholders.

IMO the sale of Telkodemonopolies' 50% of Vodacom is an eventuality and not an uncertainty - guavamint's greed will seal the deal. I agree that there will be a BEE component to the resulting Vodacom shareholders, and listing of Vodacom on the JSE, but Vodafone will insist on operational control over Vodacom and not a 50 50 split, again remember guavamint's greed - and the influx of Vodafone's foreign investment money which is most likely already giving all the A&B shareholders itchy palms...

Apart from the competition commission putting a halt to MTN buying anything belonging to Telkom, MTN has to be extremely wary of purchasing assests which government might currently or in future view as a strategic or national asset and subject to heavy regulation. They could well end up purchasing liabilities rather than assets.

IMO MTN would be extremely stupid to buy into Telkodemonopolies' Local Loop if Poison Ivy's utterances about Local Loop Unbundling are to be believed.

As for an independent ADSL & dialup driven TelkodemonopoliesHindernet offshoot and the sale of SAT-3 to MTN, I just don't see that happening as the offshoot would require international bandwidth, and wouldn't be happy with MTN setting international bandwidth pricing.

SAT-3 and Telkodemonopolies-SAIX are most likely inseparable, i.e. SAIX would be nearly worthless without SAT-3, the same goes for other bandwidth services like Telkodemonopolies' Digicrap etc, I don't see how the Competition Commission would be able to agree to the sale of these assets to MTN, I expect that SAIX could become an autonomous wholesale entity when the dust settles.

My head hurts just thinking about how all this might play out .

If we are to believe anything that Poison Ivy says, then everyone [MTN et al] will wait until 2007-11-01 when the ministerial bovinity promised that SAT-3 will become an essential asset with open & fair access for all.

Assuming that Telkodemonopolies' SAT-3 landing station exclusivity simply expires on 2007-11-01, as opposed to guavamint executing a Melkbosstrand landing station coup d'État, then theoretically NeeTel and Verizon Business would gain instant landing station access rights since their respective parent companies are members of the SAT-3 bandwidth illuminati consortium.

If Telkodemonopolies' bandwidth share in SAT-3 is a saleable asset after 2007-11-01, I suggest that various entities be able to buy into SAT-3 as shareholders and get their share of dedicated SAT-3 bandwidth. For example, MTN and Vodacom and Internet Solutions etc could buy a portion of Telkodemonopolies' SAT-3 bandwidth allocation - although that depends on how much available bandwidth there will be left after NeeTel and Verizon Business enter the picture. Another sticking point, is that rumour has it that the existing SAT-3 bandwidth illuminati members can veto any changes to bandwidth allocation and shareholders, so maybe nothing much will change as far as SAT-3 goes, although if I were MTN and Vodacom etc, I would definitely put in a bid to buy a portion of Telkodemonopolies' SAT-3 shareholding & access to bandwidth...

 

[antowan]

MTN would only want Telkom as a way to fund more overseas acquisitions at the cost of local telecoms users. I am sorry, but there are no hope people. We are stuck in a nightmare that will never end. I am done hoping. It is pointless and naive in my opinion. We will continue to pay exorbitant prices for telecoms. Perhaps even more so when MTN takes over.

I fear corruption has totally corroded any chance of a solution beneficial to consumers at large.

We are doomed to a future of living in an average African country with below average telecoms facilities, paid for at above average prices!

 

[AirWolf]

Too many ifs and not enough concrete facts I'm guessing that with all these possible deals the Competition Commission will be kept very busy. This "majority-SA-ownership" issue is sure to put a spanner in the works. But either way it certainly looks like a good time to get some Telkom shares

 

[Nomino]

MTN would only want Telkom as a way to fund more overseas acquisitions at the cost of local telecoms users. I am sorry, but there are no hope people. We are stuck in a nightmare that will never end. I am done hoping. It is pointless and naive in my opinion. We will continue to pay exorbitant prices for telecoms. Perhaps even more so when MTN takes over.

I fear corruption has totally corroded any chance of a solution beneficial to consumers at large.

We are doomed to a future of living in an average African country with below average telecoms facilities, paid for at above average prices!

Agreed in full. This could just as well have been the entire article as the rest was just waffle after an alarming title.