Strange trend in new coronavirus cases

[Jamie McKane]

Strange trend in new coronavirus cases

Last night President Cyril Ramaphosa announced there are now 1,326 confirmed COVID-19 coronavirus cases in South Africa. He also announced that 3 people had died from the virus.

While this snapshot is not surprising, what was unexpected is the low number of new confirmed coronavirus cases.

 

[Polymathic]

There's a backlog from the weekend that's all

 

[borro]

Gota get those numbers up.

 

[The Jam]

There's a backlog from the weekend that's all

Maybe... maybe we're not finding the sick ones to test... maybe lockdown is actually working (for now). It's possible we're delaying the inevitable, particularly in poorer communities. This virus has spread internationally and affected communities with people who can travel internationally thus far... for how much longer?

Then again, who knows, maybe we just timed it right with us being at the far end of the world. It has to has it's advantages sometimes?

 

[Compton_effect]

Maybe... maybe we're not finding the sick ones to test... maybe lockdown is actually working (for now). It's possible we're delaying the inevitable, particularly in poorer communities. This virus has spread internationally and affected communities with people who can travel internationally thus far... for how much longer?

Then again, who knows, maybe we just timed it right with us being at the far end of the world. It has to has it's advantages sometimes?

Beat me to it. Either we are very lucky, or have a very nasty surprise that will hit us in a few days.

 

[Toxxyc]

I'm just glad that the strange things are happening now, and not 2 days before the lockdown ends. Even if this thing explodes in numbers, it should give the remaining 2.5 weeks some time to stabilise it again. Given people stick to the lockdown, mind you.

 

[chrisc]

Wait until infections from previously disadvantaged areas become known. It might not be 10%, or 30%, but 500% in one go

 

[Arzy]

I somehow think it's related to a whole bunch of hypochondriacs jumping at the opportunity to test for something flooding the system and ****ing over the rest of us.

 

[Quantum Theory]

Maybe... maybe we're not finding the sick ones to test... maybe lockdown is actually working (for now). It's possible we're delaying the inevitable, particularly in poorer communities. This virus has spread internationally and affected communities with people who can travel internationally thus far... for how much longer?

Then again, who knows, maybe we just timed it right with us being at the far end of the world. It has to has it's advantages sometimes?

No way the lockdown is causing the decrease... Lockdown effects will only start showing 1-2 weeks into lockdown. This has got to be a backlog.

 

[creeper]

Don't read too much in the new infection rate. This only people that were tested. Also, it is difficult compare to countries, as each country measures this differently. Some countries assume a whole family is infected if one person is tested positive in the household.

A better measurement is the about of deaths due to corona (lagging indicator). If this number keeps going up, it is a good proxy. Also look at the Growth Factors of Daily Deaths https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

Also be careful on the amount of death rate as well. Different countries have different protocols on who gets hospitalized or not. E.g. Some countries prioritise younger people than older people.

My point is. Understand the data behind the numbers and the assumptions.

 

[The Jam]

No way the lockdown is causing the decrease... Lockdown effects will only start showing 1-2 weeks into lockdown. This has got to be a backlog.

Well that and the fact that we aren't testing... or we are taking longer than usual to clean the data and report it. For the conspiracy theorists, this could well be deliberate unter-reporting to save the Rand (it will backfire if it is).

 

[cyb3rt]

Wait until infections from previously disadvantaged areas become known. It might not be 10%, or 30%, but 500% in one go

Been saying this since the first case. Once proper testing is conducted (and reported) from these areas, we will be seeing big numbers.

 

[hj007]

You expect Europe to be widespread because it had no borders. You could jump from one city to the next for a few euro. Also MASSIVE amounts of public transport for locals amongst the infected leads to rapid transmission.
Compare that to SA, where the infected were overseas travelers, who self isolated and were aggressively tested and dont use public transport outside of the airport and gautrain.

Who knows? Maybe its just the weekend backlog though?

 

[The Jam]

Compare that to SA, where the infected were overseas travelers, who self isolated and were aggressively tested

Nah. No aggressive testing from what I could tell. Even if you were suspected of having the virus, unless you were at risk of death, you weren't tested.

 

[MightyQuin]

Well that and the fact that we aren't testing... or we are taking longer than usual to clean the data and report it. For the conspiracy theorists, this could well be deliberate unter-reporting to save the Rand (it will backfire if it is).

This...only this.

They should rather publish the number of people that have been tested in this country.

That will be a true reflection of what's really going on.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Wait until infections from previously disadvantaged areas become known. It might not be 10%, or 30%, but 500% in one go

Do you think they will even get tested? Might just die before going to the hospital, such is the state of hospitals in rural and township areas.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

This...only this.

They should rather publish the number of people that have been tested in this country.

That will be a true reflection of what's really going on.

They do though. Every day the graphic is updated. Around 38 000 tests have been conducted.

 

[only1cr]

Please correct me if I'm wrong or ignorant but could the virus in Europe be due to the fact that they share ventilation systems. I can't see each flat/apartment have its own heating or cooling system. Where as in sa. We very spread out and each flat or house has its own system. But then again this theory could be total bollocks so don't shoot me. Or cuss me out. I'm kinda basing this on how all the cruise ships are highly affected. Even though they were practicing self isolation in cabins. If this not the case then it's passed around through germs on surfaces but then more people would be affected. Just a thought. Not based on scientific research but just thumb sucking.

 

[MightyQuin]

They do though. Every day the graphic is updated. Around 38 000 tests have been conducted.

I apologize...I didn't know.

So they've tested approx. 0.1% of the population? And of that 0.1% we have nearly 4% infected...this is me using extremely dangerous math, though, but I don't think I'm that far off.

I'm just hoping we don't extend past 21 days. Just had my first phone call from a SLA client asking for relief...

 

[smc]

Actually, the slowdown is from social distancing prior to the lockdown. Bear in mind, the government panicked and implemented the lockdown before the effects of social distancing measures even came into play.

Having said that, yes, there would be way more cases if testing was being done to the extent it should be. But you'd still see a slowdown - it would just be off a higher base.