Strange trend in new coronavirus cases

krycor

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Reality is we don’t know.. testing is not actually being done other than when suspected, travel or sick and patient can afford to do a test.

If I got sick, which I did last month.. will I check for this virus? No.. I treat symptoms and move on as majority will do (who aren’t at risk) and neither will gov test.. see criteria. Combo that with cost/risk which is placed on patient and you go.. wow I have to pay R1+k for test or 1/5th to treat symptoms.. who is gonna opt for testing!

So my suspicion is that mild cases may have spread and kept at bay due to favorable conditions but when winter comes we may have bigger issues.

The lockdown helps isolate among working professionals but our socio-economic balance means you will be impacted indirectly even if you live in a mansion and it’s spread in a township.

So yah.. this winter could be a 100yr old story being played out again. Hopefully they keep common sense this go round and block off all international & domestic travel till at the very least a vaccine is near ready.
 

Rocket-Boy

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Beat me to it. Either we are very lucky, or have a very nasty surprise that will hit us in a few days.
Its going to be the nasty surprise Im afraid. Having just done a weekly shopping run I can tell you there are lots of people about.
Some are trying to be careful and others just dont care.

With the shortage of test kits and having heard from people that they either need to get private testing or be showing fairly advanced symptoms(at least 2) before government testing will be done.
So Im sure some figures are being withheld to make it look better than it is and with others its just a lack of testing.
One thing is for sure, you will never know the true number of infections after this is all said and done.
 

krycor

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Unless the spread has been wide enough to mitigate that.

Yea.. the lockdown depends heavily on infected persons being found but the test strategy globally is a very small % of actual population.

If it weren’t for winter approaching, influenza going around (which seems very common in Cpt this last month and kids school to offices) & immunosuppressed populous with poor living conditions id say optimistically we get lucky.

Gov has tried with the resources they have though.. better than the beetroot and shower treatment. So guess we can do nothing but wait..


But yah, I’m not a fan or letting anyone out or in the country without a battery of tests at the expense of the traveler. Sorry there is a real risk of contagion coming in which would be final nail in the coffin for SA and kinda sad if we managed to contain it.
 

Creag

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testing is not actually being done other than when suspected, travel or sick and patient can afford to do a test.
Testing is not being done even when persons report symptoms of the virus. There are simply too many stories on Twitter that indicate people are not getting tested as they should. While some of them may be "fake news", there are still too many to give comfort that testing has been done as it should have.

Until we test each and every possible case, like South Korea have, the numbers may never reflect the real situation.
 

/dev/null

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I apologize...I didn't know.

So they've tested approx. 0.1% of the population? And of that 0.1% we have nearly 4% infected...this is me using extremely dangerous math, though, but I don't think I'm that far off.

I'm just hoping we don't extend past 21 days. Just had my first phone call from a SLA client asking for relief...

They are testing people who meet the test case. What that means is that in the last few weeks there have been 38 000 people coughing in such a way that doctors believed it was justified to test. The low positive number means that they are bad at judging possible positive cases or more likely - they just don't understand this virus, non of us understand it.

Also not limited to SA. There was controversy that Britians prince Charles was tested while not meeting the UKs covid-19 test criteria
 

NarrowBandFtw

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I have been recording the results when they were released on a spreadsheet and got official results from the government every single day.
good for you, then you better go correct 15 March, because there was. no. update.
 

Nerfherder

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No way the lockdown is causing the decrease... Lockdown effects will only start showing 1-2 weeks into lockdown. This has got to be a backlog.
The schools have been closed for a week and a half and many have been working from home.

Also one of the spikes was a church so it was big numbers but easy to control because they knew who to test and isolate.

I think the lockdown is working... I think we still have to see if it continues to work.
 

SauRoNZA

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Nah. No aggressive testing from what I could tell. Even if you were suspected of having the virus, unless you were at risk of death, you weren't tested.

From what I’ve seen and also from a few personal accounts anyone who has made it to a hospital with any of the symptoms has been tested.

Also with turn around time (Pathcare) within two days.
 

Gordon_R

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The schools have been closed for a week and a half and many have been working from home.

Also one of the spikes was a church so it was big numbers but easy to control because they knew who to test and isolate.

I think the lockdown is working... I think we still have to see if it continues to work.

South Africans in general (and MyBB forum members in particular) have become so desensitised by the news, that they cannot believe facts presented to them. Cognitive dissonance forces them to invent fictional narratives, to explain those perceived discrepancies between their worldview and the reality. I'm not saying the data are 100% true or up to date, but there is no reason to be overly cynical at this stage.
 

Moby Grape

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From what I’ve seen and also from a few personal accounts anyone who has made it to a hospital with any of the symptoms has been tested.

Also with turn around time (Pathcare) within two days.
Probably depends on the hospital then.
 

NarrowBandFtw

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Any other day you claim they didn't release an update?
did you not read when I said not "press releases" or "tweets"?!?

was that somehow unclear? I'm specifically talking about the aggregated numbers on the homepage of https://sacoronavirus.co.za/ as well as the aggregated numbers on https://www.nicd.ac.za/

they were not updated on the 15th, and also not on multiple occasions since, don't believe me? that's fine, not like I care, I'm fine with simply knowing I am right

EDIT: but hey I guess I also didn't take this screenshot right? :ROFL:
 

SauRoNZA

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Probably depends on the hospital then.

Well that’s private vs public for you. Did people expect different? Of course when you are paying for it privately they’ll test happily.

Sounds like Cape Gate Medi-Clinic going by the description.
 

ponder

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South Africans in general (and MyBB forum members in particular) have become so desensitised by the news, that they cannot believe facts presented to them. Cognitive dissonance forces them to invent fictional narratives, to explain those perceived discrepancies between their worldview and the reality. I'm not saying the data are 100% true or up to date, but there is no reason to be overly cynical at this stage.

I don't believe you.
 

Forum Reader

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Aug 25, 2019
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No matter what the government publishes, once people start dying in masses there'll be no way to hide anything. Many of us have friends and family working in public hospitals who see what's going on directly. The low number of cases is due to a lack of testing right now.
 
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