Personally I think one should wait a year or two before starting to move over to lithium. Give Elon some time to ramp up production on his powerwalls. I'm a bit hesitant to make a 30k+ investment and then the claims of 3000 cycles at 80% DOD are wrong etc.
Maybe I am just stupid, too cynical or simply completely missing something, but I really fail to have the excitement that everyone else is having over powerwalls.
I don't see it bringing anything major new to the table for the mass market, it is a very well timed move (latching on to a technology that was heading towards prime time anyway) and it probably will make him a fortune from a bunch of rich people but it brings nothing new per se just a slicker better advertised more polished and more expensive version of what is already there, sort of like what apple did with smart phones.
So while it is great for Musk it means very little for me the consumer.
Now there will of course be some positive effects, in the long term (5 years?) we can expect to see market prices drop from the movement it will create which is great, but there is no way I will ever be buying a power wall myself unless I suddenly become far more wealthy, instead it will probably end up being from some South African company that gets smart enough to import cells from china and assemble into affordable local solutions, and all of this probably would have happened anyway - so I'm just failing to feel the excitement.
Anyway the above aside - it is not hard to find numerous accounts of LiFePo4 living up to expectations - it is not that new of a technology that it hasn't already been quite well tested in various market segments, so there is no real reason to doubt the technology, the exact 3000 claim may not be 100% though none of the current lead acid cycle claims are exact either, marketing department is always going to stretch reality, but from all real world accounts they are closer to expectation than you may think.
Of course one could doubt whether a certain manufacturer is good or not, thats another story..
Anyway the above aside, as a not-super-rich guy who needs - only a small amount - of batteries now, I don't really have the luxury of waiting a few years to see if Musks new 'rich person toy' lives up to expectations or not.
I can either spend the money I do plan to spend on low quality lead acid, and accept that I will have to spend yet more money in a few years time, or if I can find LiFePo4 at a good enough price (I only really need maybe 48v 50Ah for starters) I can buy something that will last much longer and by the next time I'm shopping the market should look much better.
The price points are such that considering the higher end lead acids is silly as at that point I may as well just get LiFePo.
So at the end of the day it is (1) Up front cost and (2) Long term financials - if I can scrape together enough for 1 and 2 makes sense then I must go for it
I agree though, I probably wouldn't spend 30k on any battery technology at this point, not Lead Acid which is on its way out, and not LiFePo4 at these prices... As I'm shopping for a much smaller size than you seemingly though ~12k is something that I can possibly consider though I would have to think long and hard about it
I'd much prefer the second scenario buying crappy batteries that I know will die fast seems a horrid waste, but currently the prices (to get them here in SA) do still look a bit high so I may have to resign myself to the first, if I were overseas I think the LiFePo4 would be a no brainer.
Eagerly waiting to see what the final pricing comes in at.
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