So... AC: Shadows. This is Ubi's claim:
Day 1:
This is a claim that they have doubled down on, emphasizing that it is actual players playing the game.
Now, two days later, they claim:
2 MILLION PLAYERS!
We’re thrilled to celebrate this incredible milestone! Assassin's Creed Shadows has now surpassed the launches of AC Origins and Odyssey. Thank you for joining the journey in Feudal Japan!
The bulk would be subscription services, but Ubi made a point that these numbers are actual players. We all know that Ubi is promoting subs above a game, or rather, a license to use one-time purchase. The investors will be leaning into that.
From the limited data available in regard to Steam, that is predictive, it is estimated that between 180-300k copies have been sold on Steam. More or less than around 240k copies sold on Steam. This data isn't accurate. The rest would be other game stores, subs, and consoles.
On Steam, most players are Chinese (30%), then Americans (20%), and they lead by quite the margin, and then Russians (5%). All rounded estimations.
This is also a best-case analysis. Others I have looked at show lower numbers, but they don't have the same tracking intervals, nor the same data points.
From comparing all AC games that were released on Steam, Shadows is tracking to have the most concurrent players. Not all AC games had the same release cycle on Steam. It is hard to be comparative.
The current PlayStation log shows Shadows to be the second most popular game.
I doubt Ubi is lying about their numbers. I guess they have beaten the criticism.
How well the game is doing in Japan, well, that is another matter.