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TC Berguitta to pass over Mauritius and Reunion, 17-18 Jan 2018

Gordon_R

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#2
Earlier BBC weather forecast video: http://www.bbc.com/weather/feeds/42691979

Edit: https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/tropical-cyclone-threatens-mauritius-and-reunion-20180116-2

Mauritius can expect a direct hit from a cyclone roughly once every five years. The last Category 3 equivalent storm to hit the island was Cyclone Hollande in February 1994 which killed two people, destroyed 450 homes, and caused $135m in damage.

Although winds from these cyclones attract news headlines, it is often the storm surges, flooding and mudslides which result in the greatest loss of life.
Closeup satellite view, updated 6 hourly: https://www.mtotec.com/public/images/imasat.png
 
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Geoff.D

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#4
Thanks. I was contemplating starting such a thread because of the effect these storms have on the weather in our region.
 

Gordon_R

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#5
Thanks. I was contemplating starting such a thread because of the effect these storms have on the weather in our region.
Off topic, but seems that the Indian Ocean is currently very active (3rd TC already this month), and 'stealing' all the normal January rains over Southern Africa.
 

Geoff.D

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#6
Off topic, but seems that the Indian Ocean is currently very active (3rd TC already this month), and 'stealing' all the normal January rains over Southern Africa.
Actually 5 storms in total, one unofficial depression, four official, two cyclones that developed in the area and one that moved out of the Australian Zone into this zone. And then the last, still active, tropical depression in the channel still unnamed which has since moved overland into Mozambique. All in a matter of days and all rather a late start to the season.
 

Gordon_R

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#8
Landfall of TC Berguitta over Maritius took place during the night, so news reports are sketchy. Recent forecasts indicate that wind speeds were less than earlier predicted, but heavy rainfall and flooding remains a threat.

The following article contains some useful photos, though the text is in French: http://defimedia.info/berguitta-passera-pres-de-blue-bay-vers-08h00

Google Translate:
The fifteenth cyclone bulletin for Mauritius was issued at 04:10 Thursday 18 January. At 0400, the strong tropical storm 'BERGUITTA' was centered about 70 km to the east of Grand Gaube, on the northeastern coast of Mauritius, at latitude 20.0 degrees south and longitude 58.5 degrees east.

It is now traveling at an accelerated speed to the southwest at about 15 km / h.

"On this trajectory, the strong tropical storm 'BERGUITTA' continues to approach Mauritius and it is expected that the center of Berguitta will pass near the coast of Blue Bay at 08:00" supports the weather station of Vacoas.

A Class 3 cyclone warning is in effect in Mauritius.

The weather in Mauritius will remain overcast with intermittent rain. Other active cloud bands associated with Berguitta will cause heavy showers and thunderstorms around midday.

The wind will blow from the south at a speed of about 60 km / h, gradually turning to the south south west. The gusts could reach 120 km / h under the showers.

The next ballot will be issued around 07:10.
 
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poffle

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#9
Yep will try get an update from my friends in MUR, they still sleeping now so we'll see in a couple of hours time :)

Thank goodness for windshears which took it from a tropical cyclone back down to a tropical storm, ease the destruction a little.

My wife is Mauritian and her family back home aren't phased, they used to it (the ones in suburbs and stuff). Houses are concrete blocks and can withstand it... the ones in flood prone areas and in the more rural places, they will be affected quite badly i think.
 
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Geoff.D

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#11
New tropical cyclone "Cebile" has formed. Moving southwest, still far way from the Islands and the African continent.

Update: 2018-01028. 18:00. Cebile upgraded to an intense tropical cyclone. Currently not expected to directly affect the African continent.

Update: 2018-02-01 15:00. Cebile now a cat 4 intense cyclone.
Contrary to the expert predictions, continued to move westwards before turning Southwest. The experts still say it is going to turn and move Southeast.
Cebile has a well formed eye in the centre.
 
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Geoff.D

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#13
Tropical depression, ex Cebile, was moving south has now made an almost 90 degree turn westwards. Very unusual movement.
 

Geoff.D

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#14
Tropical Storm Dumazile

A tropical disturbance north east of Madagascar intensified overnight into a moderate tropical storm and was named Dumazile. It is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone by the 5th March. Moving south south west down the east coast of Madagascar.

Expected to turn south east at some stage. While not affecting the African mainland directly, the storm will increase the flow of moisture over the central parts of the continent south of the equator.
 

Gordon_R

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#15
A tropical disturbance north east of Madagascar intensified overnight into a moderate tropical storm and was named Dumazile. It is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone by the 5th March. Moving south south west down the east coast of Madagascar.

Expected to turn south east at some stage. While not affecting the African mainland directly, the storm will increase the flow of moisture over the central parts of the continent south of the equator.
Haha, just beat me to it...

The rainfall chart for the next 72 hours shows Dumazile passing over mostly uninhabited areas, with limited effects on Madagascar and Reunion:

totp_day3[20180303-06_crop].gif
 

Geoff.D

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#16
Upgraded to a severe tropical storm. Expected to intensify into a cyclone later today.
 

Geoff.D

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#18
A new TD has formed NE of Madagascar, in almost the exact same place as the last one. Will be watching this one to see what it does in the next few hours.
 

Geoff.D

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#19
Update. The storm is now a TD (07). There is also an anti cyclone system close to Mauritius making the weather very unstable East of Madagascar.
 
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