Technical share analysis is nothing but financial astrology

archibald

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I am still to meet a share technical analysist who predicted the February downturn in the share market.No analysist can cover,insider trading,short selling etc.As of now the markets have recovered a lot of lost ground,so why the dramatic going South scenario that played itself out.Note, how the Unit Trust Managers have changed from 5 to 10 years as far as longterm investment is concerned.They must protect their Casino,s being fed.Anyone who invested into RSA bonds a few years back at 10% and now recharged at 11.5% for another 5 years (less tax) is smiling.
 

cguy

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Technical Analysis as the “human form” of “algorithmic trading driven by quantitative research” has been astrologyesque for many years now.

However, even in its heyday it never claimed to be able to predict exogenous events.
 

D tj

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Mostly agree.
Now for a big generalisation
The stock market will always go up as each month monies need to be invested: companies pension funds and other funds looking for a home other than under a mattress....this provided also the population keeps growing.
Inside this are companies growing and others dying.
Then the speculators: inflating and deflating prices to may money from sell high buy low.
The big swings are the Covid moments when with a bit of mass hysteria the public joins in and a big rise or fall.

Mostly hocus pocus, But money to be made so blindness ensures as in a casino .
When a local Astrology Club forgot the meeting hall key and was asked why they didn't foresee this, they did not find it funny or revealing.
 

BigAl-sa

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It's like horse racing. You can study the form all you like, but you will still get a jockey Jooste on a horse called Steinhhoff.
 

Tun@

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There's my astrology class effort of the ALSI - 10,000 reasons why it should not work out but so far continues against reality

alsi may.JPG

I suspect its going to make an ascending triangle where it is - Asx is similiar
I been jumping into stocks riding wave 3's & been doing ok
Just trading lock down +150%
T/A still beats throwing chicken bones - just
 
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cguy

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There's my astrology class effort of the ALSI - 10,000 reasons why it should not work out but so far continues against reality

View attachment 838183

I suspect its going to make an ascending triangle where it is - Asx is similiar
I been jumping into stocks riding wave 3's & been doing ok
Just trading lock down +150%
T/A still beats throwing chicken bones - just
Pretty sure that if your sample size was larger, it would match the same probability of success as chicken bones.
 

archibald

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Tun@ with the greatest respect, after two months when the the JSE hit rock bottom at 34000 and now at 47000 I cant see an ascending triangle.I see a massive sideways up movement and my witchdoctor tells me it is a foundation for a massive downturn back to 34000.The Casino is doing well.I will continue to play the RSA Bonds for the next 5 years at 11.5%
 

Ancalagon

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I want to start a hedge fund called Sangoma. Our forecasting engine will be called Throw The Bones.

Who wants to invest $500 million with me?
 

Tun@

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Tun@ with the greatest respect, after two months when the the JSE hit rock bottom at 34000 and now at 47000 I cant see an ascending triangle.I see a massive sideways up movement and my witchdoctor tells me it is a foundation for a massive downturn back to 34000.The Casino is doing well.I will continue to play the RSA Bonds for the next 5 years at 11.5%
I posted that on the 11th - it was making one but the move on the 19th kind of broke it.(where the blue x is)
I also have little faith - Dow/ASX/JSE have all followed a similar path & broken above resistance but then gone nowhere & just crabbed sideways so ya i agree a fall would'nt be surprising.

j203_22_5_20.JPG
 

Tun@

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Out of interest the Ozzie All Ords

all ords_22_5_20.JPG

Breakout but no follow thru - i guess one calls it a re-test atm
 

cguy

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I also have little faith - Dow/ASX/JSE have all followed a similar path & broken above resistance but then gone nowhere & just crabbed sideways so ya i agree a fall would'nt be surprising.
Do you believe that you are the only person to have seen this pattern? If not, don’t you think the market would have already acted accordingly, thereby already factoring it in by now?
 

Tun@

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Do you believe that you are the only person to have seen this pattern? If not, don’t you think the market would have already acted accordingly, thereby already factoring it in by now?
No of course not, t/a shows one thing but reality is another for it to follow thru.
I don't know what you mean by already factoring it in.
 

cguy

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No of course not, t/a shows one thing but reality is another for it to follow thru.
I don't know what you mean by already factoring it in.
Assuming you believe your current analysis implies there is a greater than 50% chance of the market moving in the predicted direction, wouldn’t somebody else already have reacted to it, thereby bringing the directional prediction back to 50%?
 
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Tun@

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Assuming you believe your current analysis implies there is a greater than 50% chance of the market moving in the predicted direction, wouldn’t somebody else already have reacted to it, thereby bringing the directional prediction back to 50%?
Stats? I'm not really sure where your trying to head but I have no clue what others see or how they have positions long or short - i just see a more bullish pattern from the charts & stay comfortable with being long. I don't see that pattern playing out like it should tho so i'm long but not going to be surprised if it falls apart. Good news/Bad news is ripping around daily so should the pattern work or fail i know not.
I been shaking my head at this move up all along but i see what i see so just try trade with the flow.
I'm not investing just saw opportunity knock from that panic low.
 

cguy

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Stats? I'm not really sure where your trying to head but I have no clue what others see or how they have positions long or short - i just see a more bullish pattern from the charts & stay comfortable with being long. I don't see that pattern playing out like it should tho so i'm long but not going to be surprised if it falls apart. Good news/Bad news is ripping around daily so should the pattern work or fail i know not.
I been shaking my head at this move up all along but i see what i see so just try trade with the flow.
I'm not investing just saw opportunity knock from that panic low.
I’m just trying to say that actionable patterns have already generated the appropriate actions by others in the market, so trying to use this to guide investments is pretty futile (and dangerous to you) if you believe otherwise.

I’m not saying that you should know what others see, but rather:
- assuming that others haven’t seen it would be incorrect
- assuming that a non-50/50 opportunity still exists is equivalent to assuming that others haven’t seen it
 

Tun@

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I’m not saying that you should know what others see, but rather:
- assuming that others haven’t seen it would be incorrect
- assuming that a non-50/50 opportunity still exists is equivalent to assuming that others haven’t seen it
I would put it akin to doubling down on a 10 when a blackjack dealer is holding a 6 & the last 2 cards dealt are less than a 10.
Sometimes it works sometimes it don't, one can't assume anything but hopefully a little bias in one's favour :)
 

cguy

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I would put it akin to doubling down on a 10 when a blackjack dealer is holding a 6 & the last 2 cards dealt are less than a 10.
Sometimes it works sometimes it don't, one can't assume anything but hopefully a little bias in one's favour :)
That’s what technical analysis trys to sell people on, but the reality is that (for most investors) it behaves much more like a Martingale.

i.e., the only bias is confirmation bias. :p
 
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