Technical share analysis is nothing but financial astrology

Tun@

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That’s what technical analysis trys to sell people on, but the reality is that (for most investors) it behaves much more like a Martingale.

i.e., the only bias is confirmation bias. :p

Random walk theory ok - have heard of but never read - I'm with where your coming from now. :thumbsup:
 

archibald

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Sep 22, 2009
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"There is a simple rule – For a real bear market, the bounce after the selloff should go and test the 40
week moving average and if it can not change the 40 week moving average into a support, the leg to the
downside can continue again for further downside. Which means that we can see the lows of 33407 soon
again."
The above quote is from my witchdoctors text book.
 

Tun@

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Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Messages
3,013
"There is a simple rule – For a real bear market, the bounce after the selloff should go and test the 40
week moving average and if it can not change the 40 week moving average into a support, the leg to the
downside can continue again for further downside. Which means that we can see the lows of 33407 soon
again."
The above quote is from my witchdoctors text book.
I initially brought in expecting similar story to happen but a bounce off a fib line rather.
Blue line is 40 period ma - BUT one would argue whether it can be called a bear market as the book stated i guess.
JSE daily chart.

j203 mov avrge.JPG
 

cguy

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Jan 2, 2013
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"There is a simple rule – For a real bear market, the bounce after the selloff should go and test the 40
week moving average and if it can not change the 40 week moving average into a support, the leg to the
downside can continue again for further downside. Which means that we can see the lows of 33407 soon
again."
The above quote is from my witchdoctors text book.
Once upon a time, before the creation of statistics... :p
 

Tun@

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Once upon a time, before the creation of statistics... :p
You know i was thinking about that theory last night - so according to that if one brought a stock in a downtrend or uptrend trading long it makes no differance as each day is random - i don't think i'm going to swallow that.
 

cguy

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You know i was thinking about that theory last night - so according to that if one brought a stock in a downtrend or uptrend trading long it makes no differance as each day is random - i don't think i'm going to swallow that.
You don’t know if you’re in an up/downtrend when you do the trade, you know that there was an up/downtrend up to that point.

The alternative is that you will make a ton of money simply following: if the market has been up for a bit you go long and down for a bit, and you go short. Not going to happen.
 

Tun@

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You don’t know if you’re in an up/downtrend when you do the trade, you know that there was an up/downtrend up to that point.

The alternative is that you will make a ton of money simply following: if the market has been up for a bit you go long and down for a bit, and you go short. Not going to happen.
Granted - ones buying into the historic bias & i'll agree that tomorrow could be equally likely up or down but over time i don't think the results would look too hot buying long into a downtrending stock & expecting great results so where that puts things in the theory i don't know.
 

chrisc

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Sygnia's FAAG fund increased 88% since 2017. That is good enough for me

The next big trend will be medical service companies
 

cguy

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Granted - ones buying into the historic bias & i'll agree that tomorrow could be equally likely up or down but over time i don't think the results would look too hot buying long into a downtrending stock & expecting great results so where that puts things in the theory i don't know.
Buying long into a down trending stock or an up trending stock makes no difference. It’s only ever trending in hindsight.

One can of course study the underlying company to get a sense of where the stock is going - although you would have to have deeper insight than most of the market participants to gain an edge this way (otherwise this information would already be factored in).
 

saturnz

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13,908
yeah I've always relied on fundamentals when taking positions on the market

but thats alot harder than looking at graphs, you actually have to understand how things work
 

Techne

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Sep 28, 2008
Messages
12,686
Get 20 year data.
Train random tree forest models on 15 years and pick the ones that predict the last 5 known ones the best.
Predict the next year.
Getting the data is the issue.
If anyone has proper data let me know, maybe we can work together.
 
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