The Car Depreciation Awards: Post Yours

[PhireSide]

And I see if you go to Car Value Estimate you can enter your odometer and overall condition as well which will adjust the value slightly:

 

[Foxhound5366]

And I see if you go to Car Value Estimate you can enter your odometer and overall condition as well which will adjust the value slightly:

Wow, how did you manage to settle early? Was that a trade-in or did you rob a bank?

 

[Moto Guzzi]

First, a little context for this thread. We're always in search of the holy grail of cars that don't depreciate, but there don't appear to be any public sources in South Africa that make real-world depreciation figures transparent. TransUnion for example has all the data that they sell to car dealerships, and they're not gonna make it public because A) they'd lose dealership money; and B) the dealers would freak out.

Cue this thread. The premise is simple, just copy and paste your answers to this and we should see an interesting picture:
1) What car do you own/have recently owned (year, make, model + derivative)?
2) Did you buy it new or pre-owned (+how old when purchased)?
3) How much was its retail price when you bought it? (i.e. NOT the price you paid with trade-in assistance or after deposit)?
4) What is its trade-in value now/when you sold it, and how many months after purchase is that?
5) (If you know) After how many months in total (from purchase) will your car have/had positive equity for the first time (trade in value > amount owed to bank)?*
*Disclaimer: Question 5 is heavily influenced by the repayment plan you took out, how much of a deposit etc. So this is just a point of interest question, not apples-for-apples.

1) 2013 BMW 320i F30 A/T Luxury Line
2) Pre-owned (roughly 4 years old when purchased in June 2017)
3) R250 000 (ex 'on the road' costs)
4) Around R170 000 (after 19 months)
5) BMW Financial Services estimates I'll have positive equity around December 2020 (i.e. 3.5 years after purchase)
View attachment 624592

And there you have it ... dunno, I was kinda hoping a pre-owned BMW would do better than that. Positive equity after 3.5 years is pretty meh (my previous car WAS a new Citroen so I know all about painful depreciation), but without my 35% residual it could probably have been just under 3 years.

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So when did cars became the worst "investment" in general, it must be around 1998 plus minus. As it became digitally infected the prices skyrocketed and kept on doing so, it not really more reliable, I never walked with pre-1998 vehicles bought new, but the germans made me walk.
So who would want to own any modern car lets say in 10 years time 2nd hand-? , thats not up to 5 years old-?
So what is going to happen to the see of cars standing for sale in each town-?, giving the digital baggage that comes with it-?

 

[Zophos]

1) Car: 2017 Hyundai i20 1.4 Fluid
2) Demo - took delivery 1 Sept 2017 (with 2900 km on odo)
3) Price: R245 000 (New Selling Price was around R280 000) (It was also fitted with new infotainment system and SatNav for that price)
4) Trade in According to Westbank is R186 333 but average trade in from graph below is a bit higher due to low km and condition
5) Positive equity from 3 months but, realistically from graph below from 19 months

 

[PhireSide]

Wow, how did you manage to settle early? Was that a trade-in or did you rob a bank?

0% deposit, the actual amount was very little to actually finance (less than R110k) and I pushed some of my SARS refunds and annual bonuses into it to settle the debt that I had. So luckily it dwindled pretty quickly.

 

[ahoudet]

Yeah, ironically my second graph perfectly confirms the French car bomb theory

I disagree. It's a few month old car. All new cars depreciate badly...

 

[Foxhound5366]

I disagree. It's a few month old car. All new cars depreciate badly...

Look at all the French cars at the top of that chart, not just the one.

 

[ahoudet]

Look at all the French cars at the top of that chart, not just the one.

I've had worse deprecation on my Audi when I compare to some of the French cars I've owned.

The key is to make sure the first owner takes the knock.

Same with someone buying something like a new Audi.

A family member paid R180k for a 2009 A6 in 2012. That must've been a major hit.

 

[Foxhound5366]

I've had worse deprecation on my Audi when I compare to some of the French cars I've owned.

The key is to make sure the first owner takes the knock.

Same with someone buying something like a new Audi.

A family member paid R180k for a 2009 A6 in 2012. That must've been a major hit.

It depends which graph you use. I supplied two in the end, and yes, it appears that French cars do depreciate less than D-segment sedans in a straight per month amount, but when you factor that as a percentage of the purchase cost, then through French cars roar ahead again. As we get more data here, we should be able to settle the debate a bit more conclusively.

Link to graphs (check out second one)

 

[ahoudet]

It depends which graph you use. I supplied two in the end, and yes, it appears that French cars do depreciate less than D-segment sedans in a straight per month amount, but when you factor that as a percentage of the purchase cost, then through French cars roar ahead again. As we get more data here, we should be able to settle the debate a bit more conclusively.

Link to graphs (check out second one)

I'll add my examples in the coming days. I look out for good deals though so minimal depreciation and sometimes a small profit.

Best ever was a Koleos that we buy cars paid me 20% more than what I paid for it 2 months later whereas the other services offered exactly what I paid.

 

[Mike Hoxbig]

Look at all the French cars at the top of that chart, not just the one.

I think it's more a case of which French car.

The cars on your graph aren't really cars that are in demand, which reflects in the new sales volumes for them. They're mostly niche cars that people who don't really care about depreciation bought.

I have no doubt that if you had a look at the second hand values of cars such as a 7-series or A6, you'd find the same holds true compared to their new price.

I'm sure the inverse would apply when looking at a high volume car like a Clio or Sandero.

Also it combines new and used cars, which may skew the comparison somewhat...

 

[Foxhound5366]

I think it's more a case of which French car.

The cars on your graph aren't really cars that are in demand, which reflects in the new sales volumes for them. They're mostly niche cars that people who don't really care about depreciation bought.

I have no doubt that if you had a look at the second hand values of cars such as a 7-series or A6, you'd find the same holds true compared to their new price.

I'm sure the inverse would apply when looking at a high volume car like a Clio or Sandero.

Also it combines new and used cars, which may skew the comparison somewhat...

True, I've said all along the more data we get shared here, the more reliable the trends will become.

 

[Neuk_]

1) 2015 Volkswagen Golf R
2) New
3) R620k
4) Trade - R387k/Retail - R441k 38 months after purchase.
5) I am guessing it was late last year but I haven't kept a record of current trade/retail values.

So spanner in the works here, I was at Hatfield VW in Bryanston looking at what they had in their MasterCars section and the salesman looked up the trade/retail of my car...

Trade - R423k
Retail - R489k

 

[Foxhound5366]

So spanner in the works here, I was at Hatfield VW in Bryanston looking at what they had in their MasterCars section and the salesman looked up the trade/retail of my car...

Trade - R423k
Retail - R489k

Yes, but what will they ACTUALLY pay? Nobody follows book value on trade, dealers just use that as a starting line to then subtract further from.

 

[Neuk_]

Yes, but what will they ACTUALLY pay? Nobody follows book value on trade, dealers just use that as a starting line to then subtract further from.

They stated in conversation that they would offer R430k but I haven't received any official quotes.

 

[Kosmik]

1) 2008 Toyota Avensis 2.0l Auto ( 76K kms )
2) Pre-owned (roughly 7 years old when purchased in Oct 2015)
3) R105 000 cash
4) Current value as per replacement - R100k ( 105k Kms )
5) N/A

 

[shooter69]

1) 2016 Mahindra Thar
2) New.
3) R240k (R209k + R31k for extras)
4) Still owed the bank R183k by Nov 2018 when I traded it in.
5) Nissan settled the car with no loading on the new cars price. Mahindra offerd me R60k less than Nissan did.

 

[Foxhound5366]

1) 2016 Mahindra Thar
2) New.
3) R240k (R209k + R31k for extras)
4) Still owed the bank R183k by Nov 2018 when I traded it in.
5) Nissan settled the car with no loading on the new cars price. Mahindra offerd me R60k less than Nissan did.

You see, when I see that Mahindra offered you R60K less, that makes me pretty sure that Nissan was actually subsidising you somehow ... either because they were willing to give trade-in assistance on the Nissan you were buying, or they were cutting into their retail margin on the re-sale of your trade-in in lieu of just making the sale. I'm not sure how y'all feel I should record the trade-in price then: the fairest would be what Mahindra offered (i.e. R123 000), but I guess we can put what Nissan offered and then Mahindra-sellers will just need to go buy Nissans to achieve that figure

 

[rodga]

You see, when I see that Mahindra offered you R60K less, that makes me pretty sure that Nissan was actually subsidising you somehow ... either because they were willing to give trade-in assistance on the Nissan you were buying, or they were cutting into their retail margin on the re-sale of your trade-in in lieu of just making the sale. I'm not sure how y'all feel I should record the trade-in price then: the fairest would be what Mahindra offered (i.e. R123 000), but I guess we can put what Nissan offered and then Mahindra-sellers will just need to go buy Nissans to achieve that figure

uhm if you going to be deciding the values, then it makes this whole excercise pointless.

 

[Foxhound5366]

uhm if you going to be deciding the values, then it makes this whole excercise pointless.

I'm not deciding the values, I'm trying to include the fairest most replicable values. That's why I've already discarded those fluke cases here where people bought cars that actually gained value. A lot of OEMs offer massive trade-in assistance deals to secure a new sale, but that value they offer (R50000 in the case of premium cars) hardly belongs to the old car being traded in, does it? If you or I take that exact car anywhere else, we won't get a figure anywhere near there.

That's why I asked it as a question: R60 000 is a massive difference, and if you feel I should include it anyway despite everything, then do you also accept the consequences of that on the data going forward?