The coronavirus number to watch in South Africa

Bradley Prior

Bradley Prior

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The coronavirus number to watch in South Africa

Health Minister has announced the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Africa is 2,415 – a daily increase of 143.

While the total number of COVID-19 cases in South Africa is interesting, the average number of daily coronavirus cases is actually the most important figure.
 
I'd be very surprised if we went from averaging more than 90 cases per week to under 44 but I suppose one can hope...
 
Agent_Smith said:
I'd be very surprised if we went from averaging more than 90 cases per week to under 44 but I suppose one can hope...
Click to expand...

The verbal description is very different from the information presented on the slides. It specifically states average number of new cases, minus hotspots identified by contact tracing.

This is done to give smoother numbers, and also to provide information about the underlying infection rate, which is really the most important parameter. The assumption is that most outbreaks can be contained to a specific building or district, at least during the lockdown phase, and do not spread to the general population.

Another parameter called CHW is not clearly defined, but seems to be the rate of positive tests amongst a random segment of the population screened by Community Health Workers. The threshold for this is 0.1%, i.e. if the rate exceeds 1 in a 1000, then the lockdown will remain in place.

The current rate is believed to be much lower than this (around 0.01% AFAIK), so there is still some potential for a slight easing of restrictions based on data for the week up to 16 Apr.
 
lets hope these late stage cases and not recently contracted cases.
 
Gordon_R said:
The verbal description is very different from the information presented on the slides. It specifically states average number of new cases, minus hotspots identified by contact tracing.

This is done to give smoother numbers, and also to provide information about the underlying infection rate, which is really the most important parameter. The assumption is that most outbreaks can be contained to a specific building or district, at least during the lockdown phase, and do not spread to the general population.

Another parameter called CHW is not clearly defined, but seems to be the rate of positive tests amongst a random segment of the population screened by Community Health Workers. The threshold for this is 0.1%, i.e. if the rate exceeds 1 in a 1000, then the lockdown will remain in place.

The current rate is believed to be much lower than this (around 0.01% AFAIK), so there is still some potential for a slight easing of restrictions based on data for the week up to 16 Apr.
Click to expand...

Ah good to know, thanks!
 
One day I will understand the significance of these numbers. Today is not that day :(

Tomorrow, however, might be that day. For this reason, there is hope :D
 
More important is the number of tests conducted.
 
It's going to take on Nigerian to escape quarantine here before we getting mass rioting.
 
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