The DA is in total crisis.

Do the DA need a new leader?

  • Yes

    Votes: 148 72.2%
  • No

    Votes: 37 18.0%
  • MMusi saw this poll and resigned.

    Votes: 7 3.4%
  • Epstein didn't kill himself.

    Votes: 23 11.2%

  • Total voters
    205
  • Poll closed .

JuliusSeizure

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DA shed over 20 percentage points in my ward in recent by-elections. DA scraped through by a small margin. I'd imagine they retained majority of their non-white voters.
[/QUOTE]

Their performance in their Indian and colored strongholds is weaker in LGE than in Presidential elections but that's mainly due to the Independents and Civic Parties that contest.
 

theratman

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The general feeling I have is that some of those who went to other parties like the Freedom Front and those who wasted votes with the purple cow will be coming back.
Is the joke that was the purple cow even worth mentioning? They got 15k votes, in a national election.
 

MightyQuin

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I thought I was but I am humbled in front of superior genes. You have taught me a important lesson and here it is for everyone to read.

In short, if Tshwane had 5 municipalities and it has 2 rich (in terms of property tax collection) areas and 3 poor areas and service will be delivered in proportion to the property tax collection.
Your inferiority complex is getting worse by the day. Why is that?
 

theratman

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My suspicion was that it was a strategic campaign to push the DA further to the right and maybe they succeeded in that respect. The members were DA defectors and seem to have warmed up to the party again.
15k votes, even fewer ex members, that's not very much. I'm not sure how one could go from a Purple voter to being a DA voter, it's rather chalk and cheese, but I suppose there will be a chunk going across as few other options.
 

JuliusSeizure

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I'm not sure how one could go from a Purple voter to being a DA voter, it's rather chalk and cheese

The Purple Cow voters are mostly right-leaning so they agree with most DA stances under the new leadership. The party would not have formed if the party did not opt for left-leaning policy under Zille/Maimane.

Most will go back to the DA and some might to go the VF+.

But it was most definitely a failed and embarrassing project. Roman Cabanac does not even mention it now as if it never happened.
 
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:thumbsup:. Superb analysis.

There is a book waiting to be written, covering the 27 years of ANC governance, that compares the DA’s own analysis with the dominant English language media interpretation of that time.

From the façade of empowerment, cadre deployment and state capture to countless others, I can’t think of one case where the English media got it right, and the DA got it wrong. I have come to accept it as axiomatic that when the English mainstream media opposes us, we are doing something right. And vice versa.

In politics, there are consequences for getting things wrong. But for commentators there are none.

I am often puzzled about the root cause of this collective failure, and draw the following conclusion: despite all the evidence to the contrary, certain analysts still regard the ANC as a benign and well-meaning organisation with a few rotten apples, rather than a thoroughly malevolent organisation with a few good eggs. I’ve recognised this since my activist days in the 1980s.
 
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The general feeling I have is that some of those who went to other parties like the Freedom Front and those who wasted votes with the purple cow will be coming back.

My sense as well - at least for local elections. Policies that animate the FF+ base like EWC and AA do not take centre stage for a local election.

The FF+ might still win the wards they took off the DA in by-elections if the FF councillor has performed well, however. But there are very few wards in SA in which it is effectively a two-horse race between the FF+ and DA. You basically looking at wards, mainly rural, with a sufficient population of white Afrikaans speakers.
 

JuliusSeizure

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Policies that animate the FF+ base like EWC and AA do not take centre stage for a local election.

It's a bit more complex here.

Look at the Wards where the VF+ performed well in 2019. The VF+ almost always has a well-known leader in those communities who will campaign for them.

I'd argue that grassroots leadership plays a bigger role in LGE than policy and national issues. This is also why the ANC does not perform as well in LGE and why the DA don't perform as well in their Indian and colored strongholds in LGE.
 

R13...

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DA shed over 20 percentage points in my ward in recent by-elections. DA scraped through by a small margin. I'd imagine they retained majority of their non-white voters.
Saw a similar pattern in my ward in a recent by-election. The DA won the ward by 80%+ in '16 but could only do 60% in the by election. But everyone lost out except independents who went from 0% in '16 to 18%. Has to do with turnout which was only 20% I think.
 

ForceFate

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Saw a similar pattern in my ward in a recent by-election. The DA won the ward by 80%+ in '16 but could only do 60% in the by election. But everyone lost out except independents who went from 0% in '16 to 18%. Has to do with turnout which was only 20% I think.
In our case, they shed their voters to FF+. They went from 75% in 2016 to lower 50s this year. FF+ is now sitting on around 30% I think.
 

cr@zydude

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“Only two parties have governed in South Africa, the ANC and the DA. It distils the election down to the question: ‘Who do I trust to run my municipality to provide basic services, to not steal my money and hopefully allow me to build a better future for myself and my children?’”



What are the DA and the ANC the only 2 parties to have governed? The IFP and NP have held provinces before and multiple parties have held municipalities.
 
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The DA’s magic number is 24 – as in 24% support nationally in the 2021 municipal poll when, for the first time, the party is fielding a candidate in every ward. Much is at stake also for DA leader John Steenhuisen, in his first time fronting an election.

“Only two parties have governed in South Africa, the ANC and the DA. It distils the election down to the question: ‘Who do I trust to run my municipality to provide basic services, to not steal my money and hopefully allow me to build a better future for myself and my children?’”



Steenhuisen acknowledges that some of those who did not support the DA in 2019 would never return.

“I am not going to take the DA down a rabbit hole to get those people back. My focus is on winning more people in the middle ground. I want the DA to be that rational centre.”

Ok this is good. We have a target with which we can assess the DA's performance relative to its goal.
 

JuliusSeizure

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VF+ have a solid support base here from reading the posts and some of them overlap and also support the DA. It will be interesting to hear their thoughts on the VF+/DA disagreements.
 
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