The DA is in total crisis.

Do the DA need a new leader?

  • Yes

    Votes: 148 72.2%
  • No

    Votes: 37 18.0%
  • MMusi saw this poll and resigned.

    Votes: 7 3.4%
  • Epstein didn't kill himself.

    Votes: 23 11.2%

  • Total voters
    205
  • Poll closed .

TheChamp

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The EFF are actually not big in Durban and there's little chance of them winning. It seems to be a region that they are targeting growth in and so they are probably saying this to motivate their campaign team and staff.

If the ANC is topped in KZN, it will have to be through an IFP/DA coalition.
I know people are banking on the Zuma factor but I don't see how the DA and IFP are going to get the votes needed, it would have to be some massive growth.
 

ToxicBunny

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I seem to recall that the EFF recorded extraordinary growth in KZN in 2019 compared to 2014. So mainly areas outside of Durban but not heavily Zulu?

They did, yes...

I am very interested to see how they do in this cycle, to see whether they are going to grow beyond their "assumed" 10% vote share, or shrink.
 
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I know people are banking on the Zuma factor but I don't see how the DA and IFP are going to get the votes needed, it would have to be some massive growth.

ANC only got 56% in eThekwini in 2016 and that was with Zuma heading the ANC. Very possible to see ANC below 50% in eThekwini.
 

ToxicBunny

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We'll secede the WC, use CT port to ensure the "Old South Africa" then, has stable supply routes . :p

Good luck with that...

CIAG and the Cape Party couldn't organise a pissup in a brewery from their level of detail and you expect them to increase the capacity of CT Port over 6 fold?
 

TheChamp

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I seem to recall that the EFF recorded extraordinary growth in KZN in 2019 compared to 2014. So mainly areas outside of Durban but not heavily Zulu?
True, from just under 2% to over 9%, put of the three opposition parties the DA grew the least compared to both the EFF and the IFP so I think the DA will continue slipping down into irrelevance and the ANC will look to the IFP for coalitions.
 

TheChamp

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ANC only got 56% in eThekwini in 2016 and that was with Zuma heading the ANC. Very possible to see ANC below 50% in eThekwini.
Still, a DA/IFP coalition look unlikely, the IFP will pull their weight but where is the DA growth going to come from? They did not even bother with a mayoral candidate, that says a lot about a party with ambitions of governing the metro, doesn't it?
 

ToxicBunny

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Still, a DA/IFP coalition look unlikely, the IFP will pull their weight but where is the DA growth going to come from? They did not even bother with a mayoral candidate, that says a lot about a party with ambitions of governing the metro, doesn't it?

I think the DA are being pragmatic with eThekwini and their level of support.
They don't think they have a realistic shot of getting the votes to have a mayor (and its probably accurate).

For me a realistic outcome for eThekwini would be the ANC dipping below 50% (hopefully quite a bit below) and the IFP and DA gaining a little bit... and pie in the sky wish would see the EFF backslide to around 3% as per their 2016 results)
 

JuliusSeizure

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Still, a DA/IFP coalition look unlikely, the IFP will pull their weight but where is the DA growth going to come from? They did not even bother with a mayoral candidate, that says a lot about a party with ambitions of governing the metro, doesn't it?

DA will perform okay in Durban but certainly not as well as in 2019.

The VF+ is non existent in Durban so they get the white vote here. They tend to not perform as well in Indian and colored areas in LGE due to the prevalence of independent candidates.

I think Action SA could take a seat or two away from DA in Durban. They fielded a strong candidate in Makhozi Khoza for Mayor and there are many I've seen who are warm to the prospect of voting for Mashaba.

KZN is a hotbed of xenophobia so if Mashaba plays his cards right, it's a place he can do well in going forward. He does not have much of a base in KZN but it's definitely an area he has massive potential in.
 

JuliusSeizure

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ANC only got 56% in eThekwini in 2016 and that was with Zuma heading the ANC. Very possible to see ANC below 50% in eThekwini.

Probably but ANC could easily get an Independent or two to give them the support they need in exchange for a Municipal post or two.

There are allied ANC parties like Al Jamaah who always back the ANC ahead of DA as they feel DA supports Israel.
 

JuliusSeizure

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I terms of population density maybe that makes them to be in a better position?

Yes. If I remember correctly, they won an election at Durban University of Technology so they perform well among that demographic and there is a youthful population in Durban.
 

JuliusSeizure

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Howdy

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This is not going to help the DA if it wants to reclaim NMB.

If it was the ANC, there would be a tender that will take 6 months to issue, requiring only certain buddies apply. If it was the EFF, depends on the missing water was white water or not. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

TheChamp

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This is not going to help the DA if it wants to reclaim NMB.

They are very quick at conspiracies.
 

C4Cat

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