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The instability is not caused by surface heating, but by an upper-level trough. Some of the predicted rain may evaporate without actually reaching the surface.Yeah, but its all medium level stuff blowing in from the west - nothing convective showing up on the radar yet, except some very isolated cells near Warburton
Upper-level developments are never shown on surface synoptic charts, but in this case the effects are clearly visible on the satellite image. N.B. The Airmass infrared images are available day and night: https://eumetview.eumetsat.int/static-images/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/SOUTHERNAFRICA/Thanks Would that be the one visible on the synoptic?