The Life And Trials Of Android: A Beautiful Mess That Is Destined To Survive

[Elimentals]

The Life And Trials Of Android: A Beautiful Mess That Is Destined To Survive

If you've been paying even the slightest bit of attention to the tech world for the past year or two, you're probably well aware that Android has more or less taken over the smartphone scene. Way back in June of 2010, Google revealed that 160,000 Android devices were being activated per day - at the time, that was more than double the combined total of iPhone, Mac, and iPad activations. According to comScore, Android had already conquered 28.7% of the market in December of 2010. In March of 2011 - just a few short months later - comScore's numbers showed market share had leapt to 34.7%.

Fast forward a year and a half to February 2012, and activations were over 850,000 per day. Andy Rubin, Google's head of Android, also revealed that over 300 million Android devices had been activated, and there were over 450,000 apps in the Play Store. And comScore's numbers for March of 2012 showed that an absolutely astonishing 51% of smartphones ran Android - a difference of 16.3% year-over-year.

But enough self-capitulation; I've got my flame suit on and I'm ready for the nerd rage that's sure to ensue from the following post. Because I see a lot of problems with Android. Problems that could ultimately lead to its decline.

Let me clarify that statement - and please, read this before you head down to the comments to berate me. I'm not talking about the death or demise of Android, per se. In fact, I foresee Android continuing to sell by the literal boatload for years to come, so when I say decline, understand that I'm talking about market share in a market that's growing at an incredible pace. Do I see the end coming? Maybe - but it would be years down the road. This post is not in the sensationalist style of a crazy homeless man; the end is not nigh.

Perhaps most importantly, I'll be capping off the post on a positive note - although I see plenty of bad history and issues that will plague our beloved OS for some time, I also see signs that despite all its flaws, Android has the potential to continue its dominance for years to come.

For the following sections:
If Google Were A Car, It Would Be A Camaro
Android: The Sort Of "Free" That Comes With A Price Tag
Nice Guys Finish Last
Competition At Its Finest
Google's (And Android's) Saving Grace: Lots Of Horsepower

Head on over to the source

Source Android Police

Great read, and I must say it has some interesting points to ponder on, or to flame if thats your fancy

 

[Elimentals]

Oh and before I forget they also have a cool Patent infografic:

Bigger version over at visual.ly

 

[Bern]

Very interesting, the other interesting point is on the App developers - the fragmentation and sheer number of devices and the customer willingness-to-pay make the Google App store a bit of a nightmare compared to Apple. The development cost to make sure an App works across all the devices and versions of Android alone is a massive project compared to that of Apple, then you factor in the fact that customers are not nearly as willing as Apple users to pay (and the amount they are willing to pay) for Apps.

I think the Tizen project is going to get a lot of traction - less patent issues and the entire idea is a shared platform that can then be customised in to a vendor environment by each of the manufacturers. That and they have more control over the code development as it is properly OSS.

 

[Elimentals]

Very interesting, the other interesting point is on the App developers - the fragmentation and sheer number of devices and the customer willingness-to-pay make the Google App store a bit of a nightmare compared to Apple. The development cost to make sure an App works across all the devices and versions of Android alone is a massive project compared to that of Apple, then you factor in the fact that customers are not nearly as willing as Apple users to pay (and the amount they are willing to pay) for Apps.

I think the Tizen project is going to get a lot of traction - less patent issues and the entire idea is a shared platform that can then be customised in to a vendor environment by each of the manufacturers. That and they have more control over the code development as it is properly OSS.

As a developer I can say that it is a bit of a jumble but some mostly Apple users try to make it worse than what it really is.

What we normally do is target the main resolutions/devices and normally only go for others when we get complaints and if you don't do something out of the ordinary its very slim to none.

As a consumer I pick my device accordingly. Go for main stream and your sorted.

So in effect it ends up not half as bad as most make you believe.

 

[BeVonk!]

The biggest threat to Android is Page and Brin. Schmidt kept them focused but now that Page is running the show as CEO the kids took over the playground again. They hop from one play aparatus to the other all the time and invent new ones when bored. I get the impression they've moved on from Android 18 months ago already and Rubin is now sort of on his own. The two Google Boys want to play with astroids now. Boys like these leave half completed toys in their wake - quickly bored.

 

[Vulk]

The single biggest problem with Android is Google's inability to work out a reliable system of software updates. The fact that most people, even those who have a top-of-the line phone, typically have to wait 8 months to year to receive OS updates is simply unacceptable.

Unfortunately, I don't see any way of solving this problem. It would be great if Google could work out a system that would allow them to deliver updates with same speed that Apple does on iOS (or that Google itself does with Chrome), but not without assuming so much centralised control over the platform that Android would effectively cease to be Android.

From a consumer's point of view, the easiest solution is simply to buy a Nexus phone. But even that's not full-proof. As I noted in the Nexus thread, I was eventually forced to give in and hack my GNex, because it turns out that the Galaxy Nexus variants sold in South Africa aren't "real" Nexus phones, and end up lagging behind in updates just like every other phone. When you can't count on reliably and timely Android updates when you've bought a frickin' Nexus, you know there's a serious problem.

 

[Vulk]

Compare these two charts:

If only Android's version adoption looked more like Chrome's

 

[Elimentals]

The single biggest problem with Android is Google's inability to work out a reliable system of software updates. The fact that most people, even those who have a top-of-the line phone, typically have to wait 8 months to year to receive OS updates is simply unacceptable.

Unfortunately, I don't see any way of solving this problem. It would be great if Google could work out a system that would allow them to deliver updates with same speed that Apple does on iOS (or that Google itself does with Chrome), but not without assuming so much centralised control over the platform that Android would effectively cease to be Android.

From a consumer's point of view, the easiest solution is simply to buy a Nexus phone. But even that's not full-proof. As I noted in the Nexus thread, I was eventually forced to give in and hack my GNex, because it turns out that the Galaxy Nexus variants sold in South Africa aren't "real" Nexus phones, and end up lagging behind in updates just like every other phone. When you can't count on reliably and timely Android updates when you've bought a frickin' Nexus, you know there's a serious problem.

I think you laying the blame at the wrong end. Google is in no way responsible for the OEM's lack of speed when it comes to upgrades. In fact its because of the crappy OEM's long delays that we struggle to move forward at a better pace. If Google wanted to they could roll em out as fast as Chrome updates are coming.

The problem comes with drivers & customization at OEM level for most of the time, the others is SP's. Once Google up's the code so to speak OEM's have to create/fix drivers for that version, then send it off for testing, and only once the service providers are happy does it get the go ahead.

iPhone over comes this by building the OS+drivers in house, and Windows Phone does it by severe limitations to OEM's on what they can and can not do/include. I for one would pick our dated updates against crippling any day. So unless you want google to put severe limitations on hardware and software customization(What makes Android grate) then I think you should go talk to OEM's oh and Vodacom, MTN, Cell C and so on, as they the people that is blocking progress.

TL;DR See Google as Ubuntu and the OEMs as IT department, with the PC in a office as the end users. Do you want Ubuntu to tell the IT departments what PC's they should use of a company?

 

[BeVonk!]

Elimentals, agree, but the OEM problem is part and parcel of Android. It is a huge frustration to get updates - or not get updates - this way. It would not have been so bad if Honeycomb was not so bad. Gingerbread is great and one is not so desperate to get away from it as is the case with Honeycomb. No wonder bees everywhere are so upset, stinging humans.

 

[Vulk]

I think you laying the blame at the wrong end. Google is in no way responsible for the OEM's lack of speed when it comes to upgrades. In fact its because of the crappy OEM's long delays that we struggle to move forward at a better pace. If Google wanted to they could roll em out as fast as Chrome updates are coming.

Well, if I wanted to quibble, I would point that even direct involvement by Google is no guarantee that updates will arrive quickly or work reliably: just look at the fiasco that was the Nexus S ICS update process.

However, I think there's a broader and more important point here, which is that if Google wants Android to be a success - which I assume they do - they have to take ownership of the platform. Consumers don't care which party is to blame for lack of updates, and rightly so; all they care about is the fact they can't use the latest software on their phones, while people who bought an iPhone can. It's not enough for Google to just to blame the OEMS or the carriers; obviously those groups have no particular incentive to provide updates. Both of them would far prefer it if you just bought a new phone. If Google's "solution" to updates is simply to leave everything up to OEMs and carriers, that's just a blatant abdication of responsibility.

What Google needs to do is either 1) come up with a clever engineering solution to the problem in order to make updates faster, or 2) find a way to incentivise manufacturers to update on time. I understand that #1 might well be impossible, for the reasons you describe. As for #2, Google does have ways of coercing the manufacturers into doing their bidding, but fixing the broken update process doesn't seem to be a priority for them.

Honestly, I still love Android, and I still recommend it all my friends. But if the platform has one Achilles heel, it's the fact that when it comes to updates, the manufacturers' incentives are not aligned with the interests of consumers.

 

[[)roi(]]

As a developer I can say that it is a bit of a jumble but some mostly Apple users try to make it worse than what it really is.

What we normally do is target the main resolutions/devices and normally only go for others when we get complaints and if you don't do something out of the ordinary its very slim to none.

As a consumer I pick my device accordingly. Go for main stream and your sorted.

So in effect it ends up not half as bad as most make you believe.

Agreed, device fragmentation is typically way overblown.

Version fragmentation is more an issue, as it requires developer standardization on older APIs (yet in practice it's more a pity, than a blocking issue)

 

[BeVonk!]

Honestly, I still love Android, and I still recommend it all my friends. But if the platform has one Achilles heel, it's the fact that when it comes to updates, the manufacturers' incentives are not aligned with the interests of consumers.

I also love Android, but in most cases I recommend Apple/iOS to friends because it is simple, reliable and delivers as promised.

 

[PixyT]

Unlike most companies that profit on sales of software or hardware, Google’s currency is information. All the Android device sales put more of this power into Google’s hands for lucrative advertising and future products.

With Android as the most widely used smartphone platform, everything must be great for Google, right? Perhaps, but it’s not yet clear if its Android investment is paying off financially. A recent estimate by the Guardian suggests Google has only earned an estimated $550 million from Android between 2008 and 2011. That’s far less than the estimated $25 billion in iPhone and iPad revenue Apple saw in the final quarter of 2011 alone.

Money may not be the reason Android exist, maybe Google is trying to stay relevant into the future with Android as a defensive play; it can’t simply give away the mobile market to Apple, Microsoft and others. I would add that it is happy to gather as much information as it can for future products and ads, as opposed to instant gratification on mobile ad revenues.*And how does it gather this information? To get the maximum benefit from Android, users need a Google account, which syncs data between the phone and Google’s servers. All of that data quickly adds up:*Google says it is now activating 850,000 devices per day.

From Google’s perspective, then, Android is working out well.

 

[BeVonk!]

Android is Google's cyber vacuum cleaner ... nothing sucks data like Android.

 

[backstreetboy]

Lol seems like the same type of article like the Forbes one where Google will be gone in 5 years. What are these people smoking? Launching numerous Nexus Jelly bean devices will help with the whole fragmentation issue. Releasing a cheap tablet will help in pushing Android in the tablet market. As for astroids, it's actually Page and Schmidt that invested. As for Google not being around in 5 years I think Facebook will go down before Google.

 

[Roo!]

I know it's publicly about patents, but I wonder if the purchase of Motorola Mobility hasn't got something do with the desire to push OEMs to push out updates more frequently? If you add a competitor to the market that is getting the updates out as quickly as they are made then surely the other OEMs will either need to keep up or lose their end users to the up-to-date competitor. Pressure without an outright request or demand to shape up or ship out.

 

[Elimentals]

I know it's publicly about patents, but I wonder if the purchase of Motorola Mobility hasn't got something do with the desire to push OEMs to push out updates more frequently? If you add a competitor to the market that is getting the updates out as quickly as they are made then surely the other OEMs will either need to keep up or lose their end users to the up-to-date competitor. Pressure without an outright request or demand to shape up or ship out.

I dont think that was the reason, and would also see this as a threat to Android. The main reason why I love android is because of the equal footing for everyone, and if Google starts pushing out updates faster than the rest they going to claim favoritism towards Motorola. If Moto is 1st it means they get code access before the rest.

This might cause people like Samsung look at Tizen(In my dreams this would be ideal) I would soooooooooooooo love Tizen to kick Android off its pedestal(Not Windows Phone) or even better, all phones should come out with Mozilla's Boot to Gecko OS and you have to buy/download the OS you would like to run, be it Tizen/WebOS/Android or Windows Phone.

The after market install would overcome one of the biggest hurdles in mobile tech, and that is patents. If you can not enforce patents or have its limitations true innovation can freely follow.

 

[Roo!]

I dont think that was the reason, and would also see this as a threat to Android. The main reason why I love android is because of the equal footing for everyone, and if Google starts pushing out updates faster than the rest they going to claim favoritism towards Motorola. If Moto is 1st it means they get code access before the rest.

While I totally agree with there being no favouritism within the Android camp and that all updates should be made to all OEMs at the same time, my point was more of being able to push the company you own to get those updates out to market asap. Thus pushing the competing OEMs to follow suit and then have the time to deployment of these updates reduced across the board.

 

[Bern]

This might cause people like Samsung look at Tizen(In my dreams this would be ideal) I would soooooooooooooo love Tizen to kick Android off its pedestal(Not Windows Phone) or even better, all phones should come out with Mozilla's Boot to Gecko OS and you have to buy/download the OS you would like to run, be it Tizen/WebOS/Android or Windows Phone.

If only this could happen

 

[Vulk]

This might cause people like Samsung look at Tizen(In my dreams this would be ideal) I would soooooooooooooo love Tizen to kick Android off its pedestal(Not Windows Phone) or even better, all phones should come out with Mozilla's Boot to Gecko OS and you have to buy/download the OS you would like to run, be it Tizen/WebOS/Android or Windows Phone.

Really? You'd like Tizen to take Android's place as the dominant mobile OS?

Honestly, I hope this never happens. If there's one thing I hate about Samsung phones, it's their software. TouchWiz doesn't have a single application that is not either an inferior version of the vanilla Android app, or inferior to third-party software that is available for free on the Play Store. If there's one company that needs to stick to hardware, it's Samsung.