The pro Jab Scientist on the forum

BBSA

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 11, 2005
Messages
17,172
Prove your claim that my sense of security is false - preferably in a woo-woo-conspiracy-theory-free manner, if you can, please.
I'm no going to. It is your mother live, if you don't want to do the research then so be it.
 

jucedupp

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 12, 2009
Messages
294
Dude, you the "woo-woo" one here. Not a single citation.
Dude: You admit there hasn't been time for citations. All we can go on is what we see on the ground. Unvaxxed people die a lot more than vaxxed. Done.
 

s0lar

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 22, 2009
Messages
1,657
I am not pointing to science - there hasn't been enough time to see yet - what I am pointing to - and none - of the anti-vaxxers can dispute this - is the fact that there are globally FAR and SIGNIFCANTLY less vaxxed people on ventilators, than unvaxxed.

Now go stand in your corner ;)
Nope I have statistics proving the contrary:


You dont.

Oh wait its "genetics" guess those vaccinated with Israeli heritage are screwed according to your study? Any idea how ridiculous you sound?
 

Spizz

Goat Botherer
Joined
Jan 19, 2009
Messages
27,552
Lets be honest, Isreal has trustworthy statistics say compared to Brazil. The stats speak for themselves.

Third wave, highest number of cases, lowest number of deaths. Mostly being attributed to administering 2nd vaccination too soon. The stats do indeed speak for themselves.

Israel today.jpg
 

Seven_Nine_Eight

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 7, 2020
Messages
142
View attachment 1137334
There's a marked difference in vaccination rates for people younger than 40 between "mid May" where you drew it (blue - start of May), and actual mid May where it actually is (red). Especially in the 30-39 age group @ >50% vaccinated by mid May). And, the >40 plus age group was actually sitting @ >75% vaccinated by mid May.
And please note, and remember, that start of May (Where you drew the blue line was about the 10th) Delta was only at about 25%.

And again.. Not as pronounced... But relevant.
View attachment 1137338
That is mid May on that graph. With Delta sitting around 62.5(ish)% of cases.
It was 50% around, I'm estimating, 10 May.

There are also more detailed information in that pdf presentation. Which I was happy to lift for further discussion.

View attachment 1137368

The percentage for Alpha variant deaths (all time, any status) is indeed about 1.9%. That holds true.
However I feel that you've slightly skewed some of your initial premises through incorrectly indicating mid May.
And, the data table you provided is data from 1 Feb 2021 up to 15 August 2021. Not up to mid may. By August 2021 vaccination for all age groups >25 was above 50%. And >50 above 80%. So that is the vaccination rates that apply to the table. And Delta was by far the predominant strain for new cases in the UK (looks damned close to 100%)

Thanks for looking at the data. Small quibble. Your red line for vaccination rate graphs does not appear to be accurate. I added a red line to estimate mid May below:
COVID.png

I am happy to take 10 May as an exact date for the inflection point for Alpha vs Delta variant prevalence. The inflection point does not indicate an endpoint for alpha death. You are correct, the Alpha variant percentage deaths is found in Table three of reference 2 I used. I added that in the graph and removed the deaths from vaxxed people as it is irrelevant in trying to get an accurate comparison in the percentage deaths for unvaxxed in the different variants. The inflection point is a useful indicator to show when more or less Delta became the dominant strain.

Now - To the numbers: (again - 1 Feb to 15 Aug) (Not mid May):
-Overall unvaccinated people were only 44.4% as likely to die as vaccinated people. (But. How can this be!!!???)
-Because, of the 183133 unvaccinated people who contracted the Delta variant, during that time period, only 4891 were >50. And 178240 were <50.
-While, of the 163 329 vaccinated people who contracted the Delta variant, during that time period, 39131 were >50. And 124197 were <50.
-And, due to the much higher risk associated with the >50 age group, it pretty much explains why the vaccinated group, with a greater proportion of >50s have a higher total death rate.
-Even so...
-The unvaccinated <50 were 1.32x as likely to die as vaccinated people <50.
-The unvaccinated >50 were 3.415x as likely to die as vaccinated people >50.

As per those statistics.

I was not able to find data that shows the splits between <50<, and between vaccinated and unvaccinated for the Alpha variant. But, I did find this. (no vaccination information sadly)
View attachment 1137376
1 Apr to 1 Jul was between waves.
But, it is clear that the toll among those >45 was severe during the previous wave (before 1 Apr), when Delta was only a scary blip on the radar on the UK.
And this with the peak of the previous wave (what looks to be 15 Jan) being before the start of the data shown above.
The risk spread between the age groups, for both hospitalisation and death has markedly evened out during the current wave ( after 1Jul). Although figures in every bracket is much lower now than even during the tail end of the last wave.
So I think the only thing left worth speculating about is why relatively fewer unvaccinated >50 cases were recorded.
None of what you were speculating about.


1) The data clearly shows increased death rates for both the <50 and >50 of age unvaccinated groups.
So that actually just leave us with four likely options
A) The Delta variant is somehow less infectious among >50 unvaccinated than the >50 vaccinated ( which I find highly unlikely)
-or-
B) The unvaccinated >50 age group is now extra careful and paranoid. (which arguably would be a good thing)
-or-
C) Something else (you have to have that in there, otherwise you're just assuming you know it all, and am covering all bases)

-OR-
Could it simply be that during the current wave, after 1 Jul, vaccination rates for >50s were incredibly high? >=90%!!!


Hmm... I wonder.

In any case if you trust the data from that source, then I assume you trust the source. As I myself do to a significant extent.
Here's the 23 July risk assessment for the Delta Variant (once it had completely taken over).
Information that I, for one, find noteworthy (especially the indicators where there's high confidence of the findings)
Please be sure to properly differentiate between symptomatic infection, hospitalisation and transmission.
View attachment 1137370
The above table is presented by the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths graph and usefully breaks it down according to age group. Unfortunately, as you mentioned, it does not contain data for a vaxxed vs unvaxxed percentage death comparison. This is needed to get a more accurate comparison in the percentage deaths for unvaxxed in the different variants. Why do we need an accurate comparison in the percentage deaths for unvaxxed in the different variants? It is useful indication how deadly the different variants are in the unvaxxed population.

The percentage death for the Alpha variant is around 1.9% with a mixture of vaxxed and unvaxxed people.
The percentage death for the Delta variant is around 0.213% for unvaxxed people.

This suggests that the Alpha variant is about 9x more deadly compared to the Delta variant for unvaxxed people.

However, a good argument can be made that the percentage deaths could have been even higher for the Alpha variant if there was no vaccine. Of course this then would imply that the Alpha variant is even more deadly for the unvaxxed compared to the Delta variant.
 

jucedupp

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 12, 2009
Messages
294
You ask for PHD level peer reviewed studies. And you reply with pseudo philosophical nonsense. Lol.
Show me where I asked for studies? I asked for studies from the other guy BECAUSE he asked for them first. Both fully knowing that there hasn't been enough time for that kind of study. Point remains - indisputably - that less vaxxed are dying than vaxxed. I would rather be alive and worry about the unproven woowoo around booster shots - speaking of vaccination boosters in general - than be dead, thanks.
 

s0lar

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 22, 2009
Messages
1,657
Show me where I asked for studies? I asked for studies from the other guy BECAUSE he asked for them first. Both fully knowing that there hasn't been enough time for that kind of study. Point remains - indisputably - that less vaxxed are dying than vaxxed. I would rather be alive and worry about the unproven woowoo around booster shots - speaking of vaccination boosters in general - than be dead, thanks.
Did you just assume my gender? :ROFL:
 

s0lar

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 22, 2009
Messages
1,657
Show me where I asked for studies? I asked for studies from the other guy BECAUSE he asked for them first. Both fully knowing that there hasn't been enough time for that kind of study. Point remains - indisputably - that less vaxxed are dying than vaxxed. I would rather be alive and worry about the unproven woowoo around booster shots - speaking of vaccination boosters in general - than be dead, thanks.
So go get vaxxed. I have no issues with people having self determination. People pushing their agenda without facts, that I do.
 
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BBSA

Honorary Master
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Jul 11, 2005
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17,172
Aka antivaxxer university.

My mother lives in a different province. Not your business anyway. The fact is YOU HAVE NO BETTER SOLUTION. Just naysaying and NOTHING else. Nada.
I'm not anti-vaxx
 

jucedupp

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 12, 2009
Messages
294
Nope I have statistics proving the contrary:


You dont.

Oh wait its "genetics" guess those vaccinated with Israeli heritage are screwed according to your study? Any idea how ridiculous you sound?
Well now you have an answer to your statistics - second shot being administered too soon, most likely. And also, this isn't Israel. We don't see that here. We see that less vaccinated people in your country are dying, than unvaccinated ones. That is the *reality* on the ground on which you walk, live and die. The next *reality* is that whilst we KNOW that what is happening in Israel is ONLY happening in Israel (and now we know why) - you have no actual evidence that vaccinations of any kind are significantly long-term harmful, that has ever been proven.

So here is where we stand:

1) Vaccines in general are not bad, as far as medical science knows. There is no real evidence of long term issues.
2) We have no reason to suspect that Covid vaccines will behave differently from any other vaccine. Evidence that they are different has not been demonstrated. (Other than Israel, which now has a more parsimonious explanation than an assumption that the issue lies with the vaccine.)
3) We know Covid-vaccinated people (other than now-explained Israel) demonstrate more survivability than non-vaccinated people.

Now go forth and Israel no more.
 
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crocopede

Expert Member
Joined
Jul 1, 2015
Messages
1,176
Have you noticed how the media hype changed from the start of covid to now?
In the beginning it was made clear that severe cases are rare. 1% then 3% then 5%.

Now the media just says "here is a high risk of hospitalisation and death"
Woopdy fken doo. Those stats did not change.

What i also like is that in the beginning it was joked about that a car accident counts as a covid death, but now its common place. Cancer, trauma, other disease, murder. If you had covid while you died of something else, it goes onto the stats.

They are manipulating the stats. And majority is just eating it up and going into mass psychosis. The world is ending... oooooooo my mama se bed in die hospitaal gaan gevat word. Brand hom dood!
 
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