See hidden discussions | Win great prizes | Get free support
Thanks for looking at the data. Small quibble. Your red line for vaccination rate graphs does not appear to be accurate. I added a red line to estimate mid May below:
View attachment 1137466
I am happy to take 10 May as an exact date for the inflection point for Alpha vs Delta variant prevalence. The inflection point does not indicate an endpoint for alpha death. You are correct, the Alpha variant percentage deaths is found in Table three of reference 2 I used. I added that in the graph and removed the deaths from vaxxed people as it is irrelevant in trying to get an accurate comparison in the percentage deaths for unvaxxed in the different variants. The inflection point is a useful indicator to show when more or less Delta became the dominant strain.
The above table is presented by the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths graph and usefully breaks it down according to age group. Unfortunately, as you mentioned, it does not contain data for a vaxxed vs unvaxxed percentage death comparison. This is needed to get a more accurate comparison in the percentage deaths for unvaxxed in the different variants. Why do we need an accurate comparison in the percentage deaths for unvaxxed in the different variants? It is useful indication how deadly the different variants are in the unvaxxed population.
The percentage death for the Alpha variant is around 1.9% with a mixture of vaxxed and unvaxxed people.
The percentage death for the Delta variant is around 0.213% for unvaxxed people.
This suggests that the Alpha variant is about 9x more deadly compared to the Delta variant for unvaxxed people.
However, a good argument can be made that the percentage deaths could have been even higher for the Alpha variant if there was no vaccine. Of course this then would imply that the Alpha variant is even more deadly for the unvaxxed compared to the Delta variant.
Covid could have also already killed most of those at risk during the first couple of waves and subsequent wave could be less, guess time will tell.The big issue with using the 0.213% for Delta among unvaxxed people from the 16 Aug data, comparing that with the 1.9% among all people for Alpha (which is only relevant up to May'ish ) is this:
That 0.213% death rate applies to a vastly reduced proportion of people. Prominently the >50 age group where only about 10% of >50s are unvaccinated.
It's important! That's the highest risk group.
Where reduced cases will vastly influenced the overall death rate. And of course, with vaccination levels that high for the >50% high risk group, the overall risk (all ages) for unvaccinated people appears to be lower than it would be if vaccination rates overall were lower. More in line with the risk for <50 people. Where the majority of unvaccinated people are.
There is very little uncertainty around this in the data. There are simply much less unvaccinated people remaining in the high risk group.
Also a level of herd immunity is afforded. Even with Delta. The efficacy of the vaccines in preventing transmission appears to be reduced, but it is not completely wiped away.
Risk is not about total numbers. I'll be honest, I didn't research the road death risk, that was provided by a very helpful pro-vax-all to prove his point at which he failed.