What hypothesis?Exactly! Once you get to a threshold ( nominally 50%) the picture WILL swing to the other side. hence the phrase "tipping point" It is only after that point is reached, AND the numbers of people in ICU still remain dominated by the unvaccinated that ANT valid claims are possible of the effects of getting vaccinated. If the numbers tip also, THEN the original assumption is immediately in doubt.
And that is why the pro-vaxxers are so scared -- Their hypothesis is turning into mush in front of their eyes, and they don't like it.
Have you had a look at Denmark and how well the vaccines have worked there?