The SA Politics Thread Part 2

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TheChamp

TheChamp

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PrimeSteak said:
www.dailymaverick.co.za

ELECTIVE CONFERENCE: ANC membership numbers drop from 1.4 million to 600,000

The organisational report of the ANC which will be delivered by party deputy president David Mabuza this weekend will show the sharp decline in membership the party has experienced since its last national conference.
www.dailymaverick.co.za www.dailymaverick.co.za

Now that's a massive decline in party members. Seems like even the party members are leaving ANC behind...
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The party membership has never been reflective of the support for the party from ordinary voters, they had around just over 400k members when they got a two thirds majority during Mbeki's term, surprisingly their membership numbers were at the highest when their support was busy declining. So politics of the ANC has always been independent of their support from ordinary citizens.

I am also of the view that 600k is more reflective of their actual membership.
 
PrimeSteak

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By-elections for the start of 2023:

18 January: (All KZN by-elections)

Msunduzi - Ward 28:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

Strong DA ward. Likely to hold.

Dannhauser - Ward 12:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

Close ward between IFP and ANC. IFP to take it most likely.

Mtubatuba - Ward 9:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

Close ward between IFP and ANC. IFP to take it most likely. Another IFP-DA joint offensive is on the cards.

25 January:

Mbhashe, EC - Ward 5:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

Strong ANC ward. ANC is likely to hold. It will be an ANC v EFF contest.

Blouberg, LM - Ward 17:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

Strong ANC ward. ANC is likely to hold. It will be an ANC v EFF contest. But DA has a small footprint (will they contest?) there.

Polokwane, LM - Ward 10:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

EFF ward. Close between EFF and ANC. ASA is contesting here. Interesting to see what happens here.

8 February:

CoCT, WC - Ward 56:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

DA is on the defence. Strong DA ward. Likely to hold.

Dikgatlong, NC - Ward 6:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

Below-average (sub 50%) ANC ward. DA, VF+, PA, EFF and ANC are most likely to contest. Curious to see if DA can pull a Kareeberg and take another NC ward off ANC. If ANC loses the ward, they lose their majority in the council.

15 February:

Newcastle, KZN - Ward 31:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

Small party (TSSA) ward. ANC and IFP are neck and neck here. Not sure what'll happen here.

Mtubatuba, KZN - Ward 4:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

Weak ANC ward (40%). Another IFP-DA joint offensive is on the cards here. IFP to take most likely.

Cederberg, WC - Ward 6:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

Small party (CE) ward. Either the DA and VF+ will rally around CE as the latter two did with the DA a while back, or they'll rally around DA again. Once again, the UF coalition here needs to hold this ward to keep Cederberg.

Cape Agulhas, WC - Ward 5:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

Strong DA ward. Likely to hold.

22 February:

Blue Crane Route, EC - Ward 2 & 5:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

Both DA wards. DA should hold ward 2 easily. DA and ANC are close in Ward 5.

Sol Plaatje (Kimberley), NC - Ward 1:

News24

www.news24.com www.news24.com

DA is within striking distance of ANC here (35.99% to ANC's 40%). If DA wins this ward, ANC will lose their majority in Kimberley.
 
Priapus

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6spdmanual said:
Watershed was 2007 for me. That I believe is the Conference that has us here today.
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Yes, from that point onwards we took a very different path as a country.

But this may be the last conference anyone pays much attention to from the ANC. Once they loose their majority - it’s all downhill from them. They’ll become a rural party by 2029.
 
WizardOfAges

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Priapus said:
Yes, from that point onwards we took a very different path as a country.

But this may be the last conference anyone pays much attention to from the ANC. Once they loose their majority - it’s all downhill from them. They’ll become a rural party by 2029.
Click to expand...
May it be.
 
TheChamp

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www.news24.com

Inside the ANC's presidential gala dinner, with a price tag of up to R1.2m for businesspeople | News24

President Cyril Ramaphosa hosted the ANC's "last supper" surrounded by Chinese embassy officials, Russian diplomats and businesspeople who paid between R10 000 and R1.2 million for access to the ANC's top officials.
www.news24.com www.news24.com

Fewer high-profile ANC members and business leaders attended this year's event.

Despite receiving invites, former presidents Kgalema Motlanthe, Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma were acknowledged in their absence.
Click to expand...
The triple threat of unlikely bedfellows to the WMC puppet.

Ramaphosa's deputy, David Mabuza, was also not present, despite those who sought access to networking with him paying R990 000 for his platinum table.
Click to expand...
The one who is afraid of being poisoned at the gala dinner
 
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