The SA Politics Thread Part 2

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PrimeSteak

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Priapus said:
No surprise there. It's probably likely that she'll get booted again.
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Yeah, unless we see a surprise turn of events.

If EFF chooses to abstain in JHB like in EKH (241 seats then after deduction):

Then UF needs 121 seats to save Mpho and JHB. DA/ASA have 115 seats, then add in just the IFP (7 seats) and they're safe.
 
Priapus

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PrimeSteak said:
Yeah, unless we see a surprise turn of events.

If EFF chooses to abstain in JHB like in EKH (241 seats then after deduction):

Then UF needs 121 seats to save Mpho and JHB. DA/ASA have 115 seats, then add in just the IFP (7 seats) and they're safe.
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So, it hitches on EFF.
 
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xumwun

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PrimeSteak said:
Yeah, unless we see a surprise turn of events.

If EFF chooses to abstain in JHB like in EKH (241 seats then after deduction):

Then UF needs 121 seats to save Mpho and JHB. DA/ASA have 115 seats, then add in just the IFP (7 seats) and they're safe.
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I think EFF voted for the motion last time.
 
TheChamp

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PrimeSteak said:
At the very least, it seems they get along better than DA does with ASA and vice versa.
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The key being that IFP have municipalities they govern, some with the DA's help, so the forces are much more balanced. The problem with ActionSA is the same as the Freedom Front, the DA expect them to offer their support, unconditionally because they are small parties, the Freedom Front is much more pliable in this regard but ActionSA are very cheeky and the fact that they area threat to the DA just makes things worse.
 
PrimeSteak

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TheChamp said:
the Freedom Front is much more pliable in this regard
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How so?
TheChamp said:
but ActionSA are very cheeky and the fact that they area threat to the DA just makes things worse.
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There's a shitton of bad blood and history between them. Doesn't help much when ASA consists of 75% disgruntled ex-DA members with a score to settle and taunt the DA into responding in kind (and yes, before I get accused of being an apparatchik again, DA instigates sometimes too to get ASA to respond in kind).

Even Groenewald from FF+ admitted in an interview that the parties that can and have to take the fight to the ANC are ASA and DA. That's also where the rivalry comes in since whoever ends up second place overall in 2024, will be at the head of the 2024 UF coalition (if things work out anyway) and call the shots.

So i.e. grudges and fierce rivalry.
 
TheChamp

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PrimeSteak said:
How so?

There's a shitton of bad blood and history between them. Doesn't help much when ASA consists of 75% disgruntled ex-DA members with a score to settle and taunt the DA into responding in kind (and yes, before I get accused of being an apparatchik again, DA instigates sometimes too to get ASA to respond in kind).

Even Groenewald from FF+ admitted in an interview that the parties that can and have to take the fight to the ANC are ASA and DA. That's also where the rivalry comes in since whoever ends up second place overall in 2024, will be at the head of the 2024 UF coalition (if things work out anyway) and call the shots.

So i.e. grudges and fierce rivalry.
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The DA is guaranteed of the Freedom Front support, you always say GOOD and ANC are the same thing but GOOD has on a couple of occasions not supported the ANC, the last thing on DA's mind when they are facing any disagreement with other parties is the Freedom Front, they are to the DA what the ANC can only hope GOOD could be to them.
 
PrimeSteak

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TheChamp said:
The DA is guaranteed of the Freedom Front support, you always say GOOD and ANC are the same thing but GOOD has on a couple of occasions not supported the ANC, the last thing on DA's mind when they are facing any disagreement with other parties is the Freedom Front, they are to the DA what the ANC can only hope GOOD could be to them.
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The ANC doesn't have to hope about GOOD but ok. I see your point.
 
PrimeSteak

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Priapus said:
Seems to be the case, unfortunately. The DA seem to be particularly at fault with this.
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Coalitions are a new thing. It'll take some time before it becomes "normal". Everyone will be blaming everyone...

We've entered a learning curve tbh.

And again, there are multiple UF coalitions outside the metros that work. Or don't they count now since they aren't metros?
 
TheChamp

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Priapus said:
Seems to be the case, unfortunately. The DA seem to be particularly at fault with this.
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To make things easy and to stop all this they simply should not put a up any candidates when they don't have the required numbers as a coalition. It will augur well with their stance on the EFF. Saying they are not interested in working with the EFF but putting up candidates secretly hoping for the EFF to vote for them sounds slightly hypocritical.
 
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