The secret link between general elections and matric results in South Africa

access

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now im wondering what else coincides with elections.

weird. so im guessing they cba about matrics after theyve won their elections.
 

access

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I love interpretation of stats, you can just ignore inconvenient data points. 2009 elections, 2008 matric results - no that didn't happen.
oh yeah. thats when zuma took over. they really did not give af then :p
 

Arthur

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Any socially meaningful interpretation hinges entirely on first understanding what content is taught and how it's tested. For each subject.

As any seven hear old will recognise, it's quite possible to teach easy-to-recall content and ask easy-to-answer questions and thereby manipulate the pass rate.
 

InfidelGastro

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"the ANC government is failing the country’s youth through poor education".
That... And every other metric. The ANC is a collosal failure at everything... Apart from theft, corruption, dishonesty, lying, wasting etc. wherein they reign peerless.
 

Vrotappel

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1. Correlation is not causation
2. There is nothing secret about the stats
3. The only secret here is the identity of Staff Writer
Why do the identity bother you?

Most of these stats cannot be trusted in any event.
 

alloytoo

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The matric pass rate as presented is a meaningless metric.

What is more meaningful is the number passing as a percentage of the number of entering the school system 12 years previous. When I checked (2008 matric year) that percentage was 24%
 

eg2505

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secret metric? everybody knows its a meaningless statistic that means very little in the long term.

I mean they could make it 100% pass rate, and people would still say the ANC doing a good job.

even if they cant even count up till 10. and never even attended 1 class.

the ANC is all about cooking the books, and cheating the stats anyway.
one cant trust a word they say anyway.
 

noxibox

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So were they making the material more difficult when there was no election coming up? If you're going to claim to be revealing a secret then at least give some inside information about how this plot works.

What about 1999 and 2009?

Every article mentions that some marks were adjusted upward, but glosses over the fact that others were adjusted downward.

The government lowered the pass mark in some subjects to 30% and made exams easier by removing higher grade subjects.
I'd presume that everyone who would have done higher grade would sail through the somewhere in the middle standard they're said to be using now and thus have no real impact on the percentage of passes. In the old days anyone expected to fail on higher grade would get forced into standard grade, so the school could maintain a high pass rate.

"the ANC government is failing the country’s youth through poor education".
That... And every other metric. The ANC is a collosal failure at everything... Apart from theft, corruption, dishonesty, lying, wasting etc. wherein they reign peerless.
Really? I'd say they're far behind the US on the quality of their theft, corruption and dishonesty.
 

netcruiser

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Why do the identity bother you?
Journalistic integrity. If MyBroadband wants to present themselves off as a credible news site they should follow the same standards as other news sources and avoid posting anonymous pieces, especially if the articles tries to present opinion or conjecture as facts (which Staff Writer frequently does).
 

Swa

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Nothing secret here. All governments are good at putting on a show just before elections and then becoming lax afterwards. It's also not something that always happens as we can see from the 10 year cycles as opposed to the 5 year ones. That doesn't mean results are manipulated more than usual. When it comes down to it the voter base are more interested in things like Zuma's free university education than a technical point like the matric pass rate.
 

R13...

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The matric pass rate as presented is a meaningless metric.

What is more meaningful is the number passing as a percentage of the number of entering the school system 12 years previous. When I checked (2008 matric year) that percentage was 24%
It is not a meaningless metric, especially more so for those who sat their exams last year. By all means report on completion and drop out rates, but trying to take the shine away from the class of 2018 (which this is about) is a little dishonest.

An undertaking on the other metrics is a different matter and can be reported elsewhere. You can then classify dropouts for various reasons including deaths, truancy, etc. And then you can measure completion rates for the same reasons and including condonations (or progression as they call it now).
 

JungleBoy

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The matric pass rate as presented is a meaningless metric.

What is more meaningful is the number passing as a percentage of the number of entering the school system 12 years previous. When I checked (2008 matric year) that percentage was 24%
Yes that would make a meaningful statistic only if failing in the lower grades was not an option. You just have to look at how big the first level classes at university are when compared to 3rd level. The 2018 matric candidates are an admixture of those that started schooling before 2006 as well. Some of those from the 2006 cohort are in lower grades and will eventually get to matric either this year or the years to come. Others are now with IEB, overseas, dead, or dropped out. So many variables make it very difficult to reach a meaningful statistical conclusion about the pass rate.
 
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InfidelGastro

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So were they making the material more difficult when there was no election coming up? If you're going to claim to be revealing a secret then at least give some inside information about how this plot works.

What about 1999 and 2009?

Every article mentions that some marks were adjusted upward, but glosses over the fact that others were adjusted downward.


I'd presume that everyone who would have done higher grade would sail through the somewhere in the middle standard they're said to be using now and thus have no real impact on the percentage of passes. In the old days anyone expected to fail on higher grade would get forced into standard grade, so the school could maintain a high pass rate.


Really? I'd say they're far behind the US on the quality of their theft, corruption and dishonesty.
They're light years behind on everything. The Yanks have long since perfected the art. Our politicians are too stupid to do that.
 

alloytoo

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Yes that would make a meaningful statistic only if failing in the lower grades was not an option. You just have to look at how big the first level classes at university are when compared to 3rd level.
Not really statistically comparable populations, one is very general and the other is highly refined.

The 2018 matric candidates are an admixture of those that started schooling before 2006 as well. Some of those from the 2006 cohort are in lower grades and will eventually get to matric either this year or the years to come.
I doubt very much interim failures (who eventually pass matric) are statistically significant, besides over time they would be compensated by failures of prior cohorts filtering into them.

Others are now with IEB, overseas, dead, or dropped out. So many variables make it very difficult to reach a meaningful statistical conclusion about the pass rate.
Overseas or dead in statistically significant numbers out of the million or so missing "learners" per year would most certainly have skewed either immigration or mortality statistics significantly.

IEB and dropped out would both IMHO constitute a system failure and wouldn't be obviously apparent until we examined the cohorts performance in detail, or at the end of their cycle.

It's a reasonably robust hypothesis that the vast bulk of the missing million+ learners of each cohort has either converted to IEB or dropped out, I suspect more the later.

Of course decent statistics would confirm of falsify my hypothesis.
 
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