The truth about load-shedding in South Africa

[buka001]

Interesting report, though each power station contains multiple generating units, so the comment is not as meaningful as one might think.

Edit: Typical generators are in the 400-800MW range, so a large power station often has 6-8 independent units. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_South_Africa

The broader problem should be more of a concern:

R345 billion to fix flaws at Medupi and Kusile caused by shoddy workmanship by suppliers? Is such a large figure correct or is there a zero missing somewhere? How long will these repairs take, and are the suppliers / contractors going to pay for these repairs?

That's what Pravin Gordhan wants to know: https://www.fin24.com/Economy/Eskom/eskom-opens-forensic-probe-on-medupi-kusile-20181206



Edit: Allegations about overspending are not new, but it is surprising that they still aren't working properly: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/n...tigation-into-eskoms-power-station-overspend/

It is badly written, poor journalism and either intentionally or unintentionally suppose to create adverse sensationalism.

The quote from City Press is written as follows:

"They say the design flaws affecting Medupi and Kusile – which are set to cost a combined R345 billion – all relate to work contracted to the Japanese multinational, and resulted in Medupi’s three operational units either shutting down entirely or losing part of their output. "

The quote should rather say something like this

"Medupi and Kusile – which are set to cost a combined R345 billion, have experienced design flaws, all relating to work contracted to the Japanese multinational, and resulted in Medupi’s three operational units either shutting down entirely or losing part of their output. "

In the same article they later stipulate the projected costs for resolving these errors as -

Another engineer said the R1.5 billion Eskom recently allocated to fixing design problems at Medupi and Kusile “will definitely not cover it all” and will be used while Eskom fights its contractors to make them pay instead.

R345 Billion is the total cost from start to finish - accounting for everything. Poorly written article.

My source at Kusile had this to say -

Jip, I heard that the FFP ( edit - filter Fabric Plant mentioned in news reports) is a problem. But the other big problem is that the different designers never really made sure that interface of there designs line up. Load shedding is back for a short time really.
Unit 1 is off because of a normal scheduled outage. Outage is over now
Unit 2 had a breakdown in Jan so they are just behind schedule now, should go on line the end of December.

 

[Azg]

It is badly written, poor journalism and either intentionally or unintentionally suppose to create adverse sensationalism.

The quote from City Press is written as follows:



The quote should rather say something like this

In the same article they later stipulate the projected costs for resolving these errors as -

R345 Billion is the total cost from start to finish - accounting for everything. Poorly written article.

My source at Kusile had this to say -

Thanks, makes more sense. I suppose I should have taken the time to check the original cost of construction of the two power stations.

 

[Gnome]

So what is the verdict, load shedding an extended problem again or temporary?

Some people make it sounds like it is going to be 2008 all over again, others are like yeah this is being blown out of proportion.

 

[Gordon_R]

Broad scope and updated article on City Press, with some of the Rapport errors corrected: https://city-press.news24.com/News/inside-the-eskom-crisis-why-the-lights-keep-on-going-out-20181210

Two senior engineering sources at Eskom told City Press last week that a reheater temperature control system attached to the boilers at Medupi is failing to control the heat of “super-heated” steam circulating between the boiler and the turbine that produces electricity.

This leads to overheating, which can cause an entire unit to trip and a 480MW loss to the system, said one.

Eskom now has to increasingly “give less fire” and dial down Medupi to prevent it from overheating.

Another major design flaw at Medupi – and, by extension, at the identical Kusile – is the fabric filter that is meant to catch fine ash in the steam funnelled out of the giant smokestacks.

“It is just very inefficient,” said the source.

“It doesn’t catch enough ash, and then it breaks. This leads to high amounts of ash being let out of the station, which puts Eskom in breach of its licence conditions, which include emission limits.

“This also forces Eskom to dial down Medupi while the filter gets fixed.”

The third problem is the grinder that pulverises coal into a fine powder before it is burnt. Each of the 480MW units has a set of grinders feeding it, but they are eroding very quickly, said the source.

This again leads to the unit having to be shut down periodically so the worn-down parts can be replaced.

“Medupi’s three operational units should produce about 2 150MW (almost 5% of Eskom’s total 47 000MW installed capacity). Recently, we lost 1 000MW of that. That is the extreme case.

“I do not know what it is going to cost to fix, but it will be expensive.”

Eskom’s chief operating officer, Jan Oberholzer, said that the load losses at Medupi and Kusile were “not negligible”, and the question was who would now pay to fix them.

Plenty more on other power station issues.

 

[TheMightyQuin]

I moved to another country where this stuff doesn't happen. Enjoy your load shedding.

So your course of action against the thieves...was running away to another country.

But people "kitting out" there homes, are the problem.

Twat....

 

[whatwhat]

So your course of action against the thieves...was running away to another country.

But people "kitting out" there homes, are the problem.

Twat....

That's .... nice.

At least you can still braai every day right?

 

[Gordon_R]

https://ewn.co.za/2018/12/10/eskom-acknowledges-some-responsibility-for-poor-work-at-kusile-medupi

Spokesperson Khulu Phasiwe says the power utility didn't pick up early enough that some of the companies cut corners.

“Eskom’s project management skills clearly also need to be relooked at because some of the people who were tasked with overseeing this project did not necessarily have that first-hand experience of building the power station, which is why there were loopholes here and there.”

Wow, really!

 

[Gallderhen]

So what is the verdict, load shedding an extended problem again or temporary?

Some people make it sounds like it is going to be 2008 all over again, others are like yeah this is being blown out of proportion.

I think it will be more like 2015 where Eskom runs the diesel open-cycle generators again, at exorbitant diesel prices that the tax-payer will pick up the tab for.

-G-

 

[Mephisto_Helix]

https://ewn.co.za/2018/12/10/eskom-acknowledges-some-responsibility-for-poor-work-at-kusile-medupi



Wow, really!

some of the people who were tasked with overseeing this project did not necessarily have that first-hand experience of building the power station, which is why there were loopholes here and there.

everything wrong with this country summed up in a sentence

 

[itareanlnotani]

This will drive more people to install solar, and given that the people who are installing solar, are quite correlated to the ones that pay the bills - i.e. citizens in middle class and up means Eskom is fücked.

The muni's are trying to block this as much as they can, as the majority of their income is from their profit on electricity resales.

None of that bodes well for Eskom (or the muni's).

The parasites at the world bank who funded the huge white elephants of Kusile and Medupi are to blame also, at the time they gave us the loan, most people were against such a large monolithic coal install in water scarce area's. Kickbacks galore though, so fück the planet, and the consumers.

Eskom is also fücking us environmentally, as they blatantly ignore our admittedly already weak emission standards, and pollute at will.


Refs:

https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/11533/
https://cer.org.za/news/eskom-flouts-air-pollution-laws-and-world-bank-loan-conditions

https://mg.co.za/article/2010-03-11-medupi-hogan-answers-questions-on-world-bank-loan
Note the blatant bullshīt in this one from Barbara Hogan.

Eskom has old infrastructure - lots of coal plants that need to be shutdown.
It also has a rapidly reducing _paying_ customer base, as those that can are installing solar. Storage is slowly becoming feasible too, so going offgrid completely is being considered by users.

Load shedding is driving paying customers away, as is immigration - as a not insignificant number of paying customers have up and left. There are a lot more users, but the majority of those are not paying.
Lets see how long that will work out, before the house of cards simply breaks (and expensive payments on loans to offshore banks stop). The ANC has literally broken the country.

It's not going to get any better. They may put band aids on to slow down the death, but we're already way too far gone.

 

[Zophos]

This will drive more people to install solar, and given that the people who are installing solar, are quite correlated to the ones that pay the bills - i.e. citizens in middle class and up means Eskom is fücked.

Eskom is also fücking us environmentally, as they blatantly ignore our admittedly already weak emission standards, and pollute at will.

Eskom has old infrastructure - lots of coal plants that need to be shutdown.
It also has a rapidly reducing _paying_ customer base, as those that can are installing solar. Storage is slowly becoming feasible too, so going offgrid completely is being considered by users.

Load shedding is driving paying customers away, as is emigration - as a not insignificant number of paying customers have up and left.

All fair points, and I agree that the funding model will ultimately be their demise,

bold part ---> FTFY

 

[Gordon_R]

Interesting (though perhaps unnecessary) detailed rebuttal of the rumour that coal exports are the main cause of Eskom load shedding: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/art...xports-the-cause-of-sas-current-power-crisis/

 

[Swa]

This will drive more people to install solar, and given that the people who are installing solar, are quite correlated to the ones that pay the bills - i.e. citizens in middle class and up means Eskom is fücked.

The muni's are trying to block this as much as they can, as the majority of their income is from their profit on electricity resales.

None of that bodes well for Eskom (or the muni's).

The parasites at the world bank who funded the huge white elephants of Kusile and Medupi are to blame also, at the time they gave us the loan, most people were against such a large monolithic coal install in water scarce area's. Kickbacks galore though, so fück the planet, and the consumers.

Eskom is also fücking us environmentally, as they blatantly ignore our admittedly already weak emission standards, and pollute at will.


Refs:

https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/11533/
https://cer.org.za/news/eskom-flouts-air-pollution-laws-and-world-bank-loan-conditions

https://mg.co.za/article/2010-03-11-medupi-hogan-answers-questions-on-world-bank-loan
Note the blatant bullshīt in this one from Barbara Hogan.

Eskom has old infrastructure - lots of coal plants that need to be shutdown.
It also has a rapidly reducing _paying_ customer base, as those that can are installing solar. Storage is slowly becoming feasible too, so going offgrid completely is being considered by users.

Load shedding is driving paying customers away, as is immigration - as a not insignificant number of paying customers have up and left. There are a lot more users, but the majority of those are not paying.
Lets see how long that will work out, before the house of cards simply breaks (and expensive payments on loans to offshore banks stop). The ANC has literally broken the country.

It's not going to get any better. They may put band aids on to slow down the death, but we're already way too far gone.

This is actually a worldwide problem as the cost of solar decreases. If it wasn't for our weak Rand ironically you'd have most paying customers moving to solar. So it seems they've done something right.

There's only two solutions. One is to legislate using the grid instead. This is the one municipalities are trying to enforce and not one I particularly like. You also need to have electricity at a fair price so people aren't being disadvantaged by not going off grid. The other option and the one that should be employed is to go the same renewable route so that the costs for the generation are the same and that there's no monetary incentive to go off grid.

 

[Gordon_R]

Detailed history of Eskom’s woes over the last two decades by Dirk De Vos: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2018-12-13-our-eskom-fork-in-the-road/

 

[Gordon_R]

Another lengthy article pondering how Eskom could dig itself out of its debt hole: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/art...finally-succeed-in-breaking-the-public-purse/

 

[Craig_]

It's appalling and disgusting the way that the ANC's leadership has looted and gutted the country. They thought that they were being tycoons, but in actual fact they were only thug coons wearing ties. The saddest thing is that they will probably never be brought to book for all their crimes against what was once a lovely country, and humanity.

When was this if you don't mind me asking? Because from my point of view SA is a shithole now, but it has always been one.

 

[Craig_]

This is actually a worldwide problem as the cost of solar decreases. If it wasn't for our weak Rand ironically you'd have most paying customers moving to solar. So it seems they've done something right.

There's only two solutions. One is to legislate using the grid instead. This is the one municipalities are trying to enforce and not one I particularly like. You also need to have electricity at a fair price so people aren't being disadvantaged by not going off grid. The other option and the one that should be employed is to go the same renewable route so that the costs for the generation are the same and that there's no monetary incentive to go off grid.

They should encourage people to go off the grid, then they need to generate less. And all that use should pay, if you can't pay, you can't use.

 

[MidnightWizard]

They should encourage people to go off the grid, then they need to generate less. And all that use should pay, if you can't pay, you can't use.

I have come to the conclusion that you do not have a very good grip on reality ..........
Like most of the rest of the incompetents that pass for the government of this OUR dearly beloved country !

 

[Craig_]

I have come to the conclusion that you do not have a very good grip on reality ..........
Like most of the rest of the incompetents that pass for the government of this OUR dearly beloved country !

You know what the meaning of the word "should" is, I didn't say they will, or they have, I said they should. I'm under no illusion that they will though.

 

[InfidelGastro]

When was this if you don't mind me asking? Because from my point of view SA is a shithole now, but it has always been one.

Depends on your generation.