The truth about SAPS stats

BobbyMac

Expert Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2007
Messages
3,353
People seem to follow the SAPS stats almost religiously as a positive indicator of the reduction in crime.

I would like to make a few observations, and ask a few people here who was affected by a crime but didn't report it.

Starting with the staticistics.

In 1996/7, the SAPS decided to split Aggravated Robbery into 5 categories, namely Aggravated Robbery, Carjacking, Truck Hijacking, Bank Robbery and Cash in Transit Robbery. This move instantly lowered the figures for Aggrevated Robbery by 11000 or so, but these new categories together added more than 17500, so in actual fact, if the categories remained the same, it would have shown an enormous increasin Aggrevated Robbery for that period. Anyone that did statistics as a main subject at university will recognise this as a straightforward method to skew statistics.

BUT that's not all. 2002/2003 The SAPS once again decided to split Aggravated Robbery into further categories, this time adding House Robbery and Business robbery. Statistics were skewed using this methid twice.

Therefore, if one takes these subdivisions into account, there was a massive increase in crime twice in the last 10 years - so much so that the statisticians decided to pull the wool over everyone's eyes by subdividing categories.

But crime is under control (of the criminals)
 

savage

Expert Member
Joined
Aug 11, 2003
Messages
2,924
Pfft... The stats are absed on cases SOLVED, not cases REPORTED :) lol

It looks that way in any case...
 

Leitmotif

Expert Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2006
Messages
3,996
I've not reported two muggings and two thefts. The muggings I tried to report and was told to go away, and the thefts were household items, a wallet and phone, and my bicycle. All uninsured, and after my experience with the muggings, I wasn't going to bother with the SAP.
 

xtermin8or

Expert Member
Joined
Jul 19, 2006
Messages
1,815
The stats were only subdivided so as to gain a better understanding of the problem

( and you don't have to have studied stats to understand this )

You don't deploy Police to guard shopping centers when mainly private residences are being targetted - therefore you have to subdivide to know which is happening more often

The stats do show however that Murder and Attempted Murder have decreased since 1994

1994

Murder - 26 832
Attempted - 27 300

2005/6

Murder - 18 545
Attempted - 20 553
 

Leitmotif

Expert Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2006
Messages
3,996
Oh wow, only eighteen thousand-odd people murdered! That's only about fifty-one per day! You're right, that is fantastic!
 

Cara

Expert Member
Joined
Dec 3, 2004
Messages
2,082
I've always wondered how the government could show these decreases because just within my limited circle of friends more people have been hit than ever before. Nice to have a bit of info that helps explain how it is that Mbeki can run around saying that crime has actually decreased in SA. Not that I think even he believes that deep down.
 

Xarog

Honorary Master
Joined
Feb 13, 2006
Messages
19,041
I've always wondered how the government could show these decreases because just within my limited circle of friends more people have been hit than ever before. Nice to have a bit of info that helps explain how it is that Mbeki can run around saying that crime has actually decreased in SA. Not that I think even he believes that deep down.
Agreed.
 

icyrus

Executive Member
Joined
Oct 5, 2005
Messages
8,609
I am more interested in what "processes" the stats are subject to before release.
 

Syndyre

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 26, 2006
Messages
16,822
I've always wondered how the government could show these decreases because just within my limited circle of friends more people have been hit than ever before. Nice to have a bit of info that helps explain how it is that Mbeki can run around saying that crime has actually decreased in SA. Not that I think even he believes that deep down.
Mbeki and the other elite live in a protected bubble safe from the realities the rest of us have to deal with. I think the only chance we have of getting crime solved is when it starts to affect them, although then they'd probably just increase their own security.
 

Gadget_guy

Active Member
Joined
Feb 27, 2006
Messages
70
I guess the only way to really understand is to get an auditing firm in (from overseas)

Sounds like a story for Carteblanche? (unless it was on already and I missed it?)
 

BandwidthAddict

Expert Member
Joined
Apr 19, 2005
Messages
2,187
From reading the forum, and others, it seems the reason stats are down has nothing to do with actual decrease in crime, rather that there are SAPS stations and ppl that are actively discouraging people from reporting crimes.

The discouragement seems to include lack of forms, aggressive behavior of officers (treating victims as though they were at fault), officers ignoring victims and hoping they go away, "forgetting" to provide docket numbers, incorrectly filling out dockets, "losing" dockets (this may actually be incompetence as well), not showing up at the crime scene, not bothering to do basic crime scene investigation, and so forth.

From politicians (thabo) point of view: if you (can't/don't want to) beat crime, lie - not like anyone can call you on it as you control the stats.
 

ghoti

Karmic Sangoma
Joined
Jan 17, 2005
Messages
45,691
In the next set of stats, theyre going to have left handed "Aggravated Robbery" as a sub sub division of "Aggravated Robbery"
 

Skeptik

Banned
Joined
Nov 5, 2005
Messages
6,592
The stats were only subdivided so as to gain a better understanding of the problem

( and you don't have to have studied stats to understand this )

You don't deploy Police to guard shopping centers when mainly private residences are being targetted - therefore you have to subdivide to know which is happening more often

The stats do show however that Murder and Attempted Murder have decreased since 1994

1994

Murder - 26 832
Attempted - 27 300

2005/6

Murder - 18 545
Attempted - 20 553
I don't agree with your argument and believe the ANC are trying to mislead us.

Just a point ...
I'm not arguing with you right to agree with the government, but may I ask why you ALWAYS side with them regardless of whether just about everyone else on forum does not?
 

DragonLogos

Expert Member
Joined
May 2, 2005
Messages
2,030
It would appear there are not as many bank robberies as thought, it's just customers trying to get their own money :)
 

Balstrome

Banned
Joined
Oct 23, 2005
Messages
10,690
We all live in different parts of the country, so how about each of us going out to our local cop shop and asking them unoffical like for stats and then reporting it here.
 
Top