The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

Johnatan56

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Dollar strength due to the Fed talking about raising interest rates later this year. So money is flowing back to the US to capitalize on that.
Yes/no, don't think that was the main impact.
While the decline is being largely attributed to a surging dollar, the fact that the JSE was offline to trading for most of Wednesday may have also been a factor in the currency weakening.
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Rand weakened against everything while EUR/USD seems pretty stable, same for EUR/pound (less than a 1c move between the two).
 

cr@zydude

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Sensorei

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Yes/no, don't think that was the main impact.

Rand weakened against everything while EUR/USD seems pretty stable, same for EUR/pound (less than a 1c move between the two).
The US$ Strength Index is the key indicator (DXY) here with the $ strength measured against a wide range of trade partner country currencies. This shows the $ is the strongest it has been since November.
Screenshot 2021-08-20 at 11.21.20.png
 

Johnatan56

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The US$ Strength Index is the key indicator (DXY) here with the $ strength measured against a wide range of trade partner country currencies. This shows the $ is the strongest it has been since November.
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Not saying dollar hasn't strengthened, just that the impact against the rand is more than it should be.
 

cr@zydude

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Yup the Rand has only lost 3% to the dollar, while the oil price has dropped about 8%.

CEF petrol over recovery was 4.6c/l on Friday, pointing to a 4-5c/l price drop. That is with 15 of 20 data points 'locked in', so it is unlikely to flip into a price increase. Additionally, we currently have a 6.58c/l slate charge adding to the petrol price, which could go away in September, bringing prices down more.
 

krycor

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Covid delta variant running rampant thru the US has oil markets weary of recovery being sustainable hence the drop. OPEC haven’t adjusted hence lower cost.

Also due to dollar strength(tapering talks.. transience isn’t so transient and action may be coming a lot sooner) so oil price drops to offset affordability outside of US.

Ps. Can’t believe so much antivaxers .. I see Cpt has their own protesting now.
 

MirageF1

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Pants fallen off Rand again!! Is it local or international market fears. Nearly at worst level against $ in past 6 months.Was looking ok for a while, made some recovery in last few weeks and seemed to stabilise, but has lost major ground in last 2 days.

Always seen to happen at end of month when my international payments happen, double whammy!o_O
 

Pho3nix

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Pants fallen off Rand again, is it local or international reasons. Nearly at worst level against $ in past year! Was looking ok for a while, made some recovery in last few weeks and seemed to stabilise, but has lost major ground in last 2 days.

Always seen to happen at end of month when my international payments happen, double whammy!o_O

Mainly load-shedding it looks like. USD not particularly strong at the moment with gold moving onto the $1800 so in actuality, we should be moving closer to R13,99 if all this didn't happen
 

cr@zydude

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Pants fallen off Rand again!! Is it local or international market fears. Nearly at worst level against $ in past 6 months.Was looking ok for a while, made some recovery in last few weeks and seemed to stabilise, but has lost major ground in last 2 days.

Always seen to happen at end of month when my international payments happen, double whammy!o_O

Dollar has picked up a bit today, but the rand has been on a losing trend against the major currencies for at least 2 weeks.
 

RedViking

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Should have waited a couple of days before I transferred money.

Although I have given up with the predictions and just transfer the day money is in my account.
 

RedViking

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Mainly load-shedding it looks like. USD not particularly strong at the moment with gold moving onto the $1800 so in actuality, we should be moving closer to R13,99 if all this didn't happen
Also voting on Monday.
 

John Tempus

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Mainly load-shedding it looks like. USD not particularly strong at the moment with gold moving onto the $1800 so in actuality, we should be moving closer to R13,99 if all this didn't happen

I highly doubt this.

It is a miracle we are hovering below R15 quite often these days in itself.

Considering the real economic output in SA and all the disasters with SOE's in SA, anything below R20/$ should be considered a miracle at this point.

Let me put it in another way. Over the last 10 years , SA have only gone backwards year after year from GDP to employment to "insert issue". To think that the ZAR/$ rate have any hope in hell to be below the average R/$ exchange rate a year ago is insane. We are fking up the country and value proposition in South Africa faster than any other country could lose value in their own currency.
 
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