The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[JayM]

And the pain continues. I'm hoping elections go smoothly and the MTBPS shows some restraint next week, in which case there might be a pullback. After that I'm borrowing a few bar (ZAR) from my broker at 4.4% and going short. Med/Long term we're stuffed, may as well make bank when we go full Argentina.

 

[air]

let me jinx the recovery to date -> USD -> ZAR -> 15.10

 

[genetic]

let me jinx the recovery to date -> USD -> ZAR -> 15.10

And what date might that be?

 

[air]

Today, yes, off news24... Bought a bit from fnb at 15.30 or thereabouts yesterday.

 

[FlashSA]

R15,14 to the Dollar and still improving....

Dollar weakness as a result of Biden's Russian Oil ban?

 

[Johnatan56]

R15,14 to the Dollar and still improving....

Dollar weakness as a result of Biden's Russian Oil ban?

Just general market movement, rand is getting a little stronger, mostly due to export (e.g. South Africa coal exports will increase as take up Russia slack, and South Africa exports metals). Still quite volatile, probably would have gotten stronger if no load shedding.

The EUR though is interesting:

Inflation caught up quite a bit there, gas prices, the war, etc.

Good as transferring the last of my rand over this month.

 

[Sinbad]

WTF is driving the rand at the moment?!

 

[BBSA]

WTF is driving the rand at the moment?!
View attachment 1264598

My guess would be high commodity prices.

 

[Priapus]

WTF is driving the rand at the moment?!
View attachment 1264598

No idea; but this trend needs to continue.

 

[Lupus]

WTF is driving the rand at the moment?!
View attachment 1264598

More likely the dollar and the pound, as looking at ruppee vs them there has been some gains too.

 

[Segg]

From a newsletter I receive

• As the Ukraine war enters its third week, to say that’s markets are in a serious state of disarray is a serious understatement.
• Commodity prices continue their upward march at an alarming pace. Currencies are all over the show, our bond yields have skyrocketed, with the benchmark R186 rising close to 100bp over the last week, and equity markets remain depressed.
• Gold is now well above 2000 Dollar per ounce, and oil remains elevated at around 130 dollars a barrel.
• There are much longer term implications for cost of living as a result of this conflict – many which we will discuss in weeks and months to come. But best we all start shopping for bicycles soon.
• One of the only bright lights on the scene is the strength of the ZAR ….it remains a lone soldier in a sea of red. I cannot recall ever seeing this kind of performance for the currency whilst our bond market is experiencing a proper blow out.

 

[JayM]

SA just recorded highest current account surplus on record, driven by high commodity prices/exports, and low imports due to struggling economy. While the commodities boom continues, so does ZAR strength. Worldwide recession may put an end to that, regardless of how long the Ukraine situation continues. This party isn't going to last forever.

 

[saturnz]

as long as the interest rate differential between the FED and SARB increases, so too will the rand improve

 

[MirageF1]

Rand has been doing exceptionally well in last few months, in spite of global uncertainty around Russian/Ukraine war and oil and gas prices, SA gov's neutral stance on the crisis... would have expected a weakened R yet it continues to make strong gains...??



I think it's close to its strongest point in last 12 months (19.01 to GBP), all rather counter intuitive...

 

[saturnz]

and the SARB increases rates, and so my statement of a few weeks ago will continue to hold until something happens

 

[Priapus]

Rand has been doing exceptionally well in last few months, in spite of global uncertainty around Russian/Ukraine war and oil and gas prices, SA gov's neutral stance on the crisis... would have expected a weakened R yet it continues to make strong gains...??

View attachment 1276552

I think it's close to its strongest point in last 12 months (19.01 to GBP), all rather counter intuitive...

Will I too below 19, I wonder.

19.20 this morning.

 

[Sinbad]

Here's food for thought

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507337312744591364

 

[airborne]

Here's food for thought

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507337312744591364

 

[Sinbad]

lol, a "bond trader" called traderbro420. Sure... Definitely would have his finger on the pulse of everything that the BRICS bank is up to...

ps, JFC, dark mode! for the love of god

 

[Leno]

Below R19 for the pound this morning