Total electricity grid collapse warning for SA

[Kevin Lancaster]

Total electricity grid collapse warning for South Africa

There is a more than 50% chance that the country’s energy grid will suffer a total collapse soon, energy analyst Ted Blom said on Wednesday.

 

[boerseun]

Eskom’s new winter strategy, they told us proudly last week, will only have a 1 000 MW safety margin, and it is roughly 2.5% of what is considered an appropriate safety margin.

Am I missing something? Is he saying that 1000MW is 2.5% of what is considered appropriate? That means he reckon 40GW is appropriate safety margin?

As far as I know the appropriate safety margin would be to have a spinning reserve that is bigger than your biggest generator. So if biggest generator is 4700MW, then that would be your appropriate safety margin.

 

[Sinbad]

Am I missing something? Is he saying that 1000MW is 2.5% of what is considered appropriate? That means he reckon 40GW is appropriate safety margin?

As far as I know the appropriate safety margin would be to have a spinning reserve that is bigger than your biggest generator. So if biggest generator is 4700MW, then that would be your appropriate safety margin.

I'd say bigger than your biggest plant.
Biggest generator is 900MW (Koeberg)

Biggest plant is about 4500MW.

 

[bokdrol]

every five minutes........

 

[Electron1]

every five minutes........

?

 

[km2]

Am I missing something? Is he saying that 1000MW is 2.5% of what is considered appropriate? That means he reckon 40GW is appropriate safety margin?

As far as I know the appropriate safety margin would be to have a spinning reserve that is bigger than your biggest generator. So if biggest generator is 4700MW, then that would be your appropriate safety margin.

It looks like he got his phrasing wrong based on the other numbers he gave. He said earlier that 15% was an appropriate margin and I presume he meant that we are at 2.5%, rather than being at 2.5% of the 15%.

1000MW / 2.5 * 15 = 6000MW being the number he quoted as a safe margin.

 

[konfab]

Am I missing something? Is he saying that 1000MW is 2.5% of what is considered appropriate? That means he reckon 40GW is appropriate safety margin?

As far as I know the appropriate safety margin would be to have a spinning reserve that is bigger than your biggest generator. So if biggest generator is 4700MW, then that would be your appropriate safety margin.

It is a mistake

“The normal safety margin around the world is 15%, that is roughly 6.5 GW.

Since Eskom have a margin of 1 GW, they are only at 15% of what is actually needed (6.5 GW)

The 2.5% probably comes from the safety margin that arises from using 1000 GW. 1000/35000 = 0.29

 

[Mike Hoxbig]

 

[mmacleod]

I'd say bigger than your biggest plant.
Biggest generator is 900MW (Koeberg)
Biggest plant is about 4500MW.

Surely it is dependant on the state of your plants, if you have only on average 1 plant failure every 5 years then 'larger than your largest plant' is fine, if you are having plant failures multiple times a year the probability of two or more subsequent plant failures in quick succession becomes larger - at some point you would have to factor that up to 'larger than your two largest plants' or something similar. (Basically larger than the largest amount of power that could possibly exit the grid at any given second if murphy rears his ugly head)

 

[Necropolis]

...so says some "analyst".

 

[grok]

...so says some "analyst".

I trust analysts more than I trust Eskom, even if they have shares in baked beans.

 

[heartbroken]

This **** again.

/sigh

 

[voipnow]

Baked bean ? You mean you think its time to start hoarding baked beans like 94 ?

 

[entrepr]

I trust analysts more than I trust Eskom, even if they have shares in baked beans.

You mean they sprout hot air or they want to supply the gas generators

 

[Swa]

Fear mongering. He forgot to factor in load shedding.

 

[garyc]

Blom's background is in the financial and legal fields. He is not an "energy analyst" as stated in the article and is talking outside of his field of expertise. That is why the numbers do not make sense to technical people.

 

[Vrotappel]

What these hearings are showing is that Eskom's current management (like their previous managements) are out of their depth. It's a one trick pony that can only ask for more money.

Urgent action is required, terminate all uneconomical BEE contracts, make non payers pay or cut them off, fire management and get people in that know how to run something like Eskom. Stop cadres or we will get a national collapse.

 

[mmacleod]

What these hearings are showing is that Eskom's current management (like their previous managements) are out of their depth. It's a one trick pony that can only ask for more money.

Urgent action is required, terminate all uneconomical BEE contracts, make non payers pay or cut them off, fire management and get people in that know how to run something like Eskom. Stop cadres or we will get a national collapse.

Personally I think it is necessary to split Eskom up, force some of their plants to be sold off and allow competition into the market, any other attempt at 'fixing' them is going to keep failing.

 

[Milano]

Forget a meltdown, just turn it off. Eskom and government have proven themselves incapable of managing our electricity needs. Shut the entire grid down. No power, means no more Eskom news, hopefully no more coverage of that circus in parliament, no necessity to jam media coverage, and finally a good excuse for governments failure in every other sector too. Shut it down and leave it off until someone steps up to lead this country.

 

[JStrike]

I think there is almost zero chance of that happening.
That being said, I have made plans for quick passage out of the country to Europe if it does come to pass