Russia positioned it's forces for months before the invasion, precisely, and then basically sent everything in and went straight for Kiev. It's pretty clear shock and awe, as well as a rapid victory, was the plan.
Don't know if they have a plan B, but it will not be cheap.
Agree, likely no plan B and will not be cheap given the resistance of the population.
My opinion? I am not so much sure that they will put up a continued resistance in the way that we saw in Afghanistan.
Will they simply put their hands down? No... But many of them will not want a war with the Russian people, the same way that Russian people do not want a war with them.
This is a military action, they likely know that too. It's why there is such a hard push in the media to promote the togetherness of the people for the resistance effort.
The people of Ukraine have always been a punching bag, they will likely just want this to end sooner rather than later. A new ruler, a new day. It is the Ukrainian way of life.
At a time when the world has instituted crippling sanctions against Russia for its actions.
Many seem to want to dismiss those sanctions as trivial, but they are extreme. Hundreds of billions of Dollars worth of funds are not just wiped away without somebody feeling it. Much has been said about some war chest they have, but they also need to be able to use it for it to mean anything.
Yup, I see this the same way.
Russia will see an immense internal strife relating to the sanctions and that they are not trivial.
I firmly believe that this was the entire plan for NATO, kick up strife, disregard the concerns, force action then sanction the living crap out of them so as to create discontent.
They won't send in forces to support Ukraine as they know it means facing a potential war with a nuclear capable enemy.
If they can cripple the enemies ability to govern beyond any viable capability, perhaps they can force a regime change as we have seen so many times in the past. Would not be surprised if this is how it ends for Russia, eventually.
This said, Russia does have long-term experience when it comes to dealing with sanctions which have been placed on them, I feel like they have somewhat of an ability to maneuver within this. Ultimately just enough to slow down the process but yeah as above.
At the very least we can be sure the wealthy in Russia are currently extremely uncomfortable.
The rich will hurt like hell and this will have a huge effect on Putins popularity. This said, he was already due to step down in 2024 so perhaps Putin v2 will emerge to take his place.
All people in Russia will feel this, for sure. It's not just the rich, it will bring massive difficulties for the population overall.
As an example: Russia has been trying to get more warm water ports for ages. Now their merchant vessels are not even allowed to navigate some key waterways in Europe. Let alone trade via European ports.
What are they gonna do? Sell apartments in London, NY and Florida? Those assets have been frozen.
Much of their high tech equipment also relies on parts from everywhere as is the case for everybody. So what they have now, apart from aged designs, is likely what they will have in the future.
I don't dis-agree at all.
This said, China will fill a large gap but likely not large enough, some stuff will just be impossible to get, period.
Moscow will face serious problems abroad and domestically. People, entire countries, are not as self-sufficient as they were circa WW2. Russians will by and large hate this development as much as the rest of the world does. Probably more. Russia is not the Soviet Union, with a large population of serfs providing for everything the city people need, anymore. Regardless of what the Kremlin does, information will flow in from the rest of the world too. Internal division and opposition will be substantial.
Agree that Russians will in large hate this development as much as the rest of the world does. I also feel like it might work both ways too, we might see that a lot of the younger generation and whilst being exposed to the damn propaganda machine are going to end up hating the West for what has happened to their lives.
But I don't think that things will ever get to a point where this is going to make any reasonable shift within the eventual downfall of Russia its self. The war is on now, they won't stop with sanctions.
And the power brokers, the wealthy in Russia will have the final say. Putin is only still in charge because he has pandered to them. Has maintained a status quo where they can thrive.
Putin v2, the Return of Putin
The way I see it they are hoping they can get the sanctions to be lifted swiftly somehow. If they can't, then they are in for a long cold winter.
A long and cold winter it will be, sanctions are going nowhere I reckon.
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