US and NATO escalation of conflict with Russia is leading to war

[Dave]

Wouldn't put it past Putin to detonate a nuke outside a major city (causing no damage) just as a show of force to what will come if you don't surrender. The Ukrainian president would be bonkers to not surrender then, at least he saves his population.

"The sum of all fears" --> you don't fight Russia and Ukraine you get Ukraine and Russia to fight themselves.

Doing that would make Russia even more of a pariah than North Korea. I doubt even China would support that.

 

[Emjay]

A thread.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497609615151800323

 

[Mirai]

LOL I've seen several people describe different Eastern European nations as "One of those Russian Countries"

Well of course. They're all the same. Can't tell them apart.

 

[yebocan]

I have posted something you didn't know. Thank me for some actual original insight you won't readily find in Twitter posts.

I really don't care what you think. I don't care what South Africans think. It's not my concern. You care what these anons think of you. You seem to have some fellowship or community here. Like those Lord of the Rings Amazon videos with that fellowship.

Just stating that you're posting nonsense. Oh we can't trust anything... no sh-t. Thank you for giving us these nuggets of basic common sense. You should write a book or make a YT channel.

take a deep breath... -no need to get pissed off by some anonymous forumite -- with some rather "interesting" take on this issue. You are right, the rate and precision of some responses are indicative of cut and past talking points.... we South Africans take things in are stride... life is too short and this part of the world is too beautiful... to allow anyone to get under your skin.

 

[Dave]

The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force​

The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.

rusi.org

So I wasn't far off with my suppositions around a lack of air superiority. Doesn't sound like the Russian AF is in a particularly good place at present.

 

[Fulcrum29]

US has not seen Belarusian forces fighting in Ukraine, defense official says

The two sides agree to meet at the Belarus border Monday, Ukrainian President Zelensky's office says, as Russian President Putin put nuclear forces on alert. Follow here for live news updates from the ground in Ukraine.

edition.cnn.com

US has not seen Belarusian forces fighting in Ukraine, defense official says​

US officials have not seen Belarusian troops “being readied to move into Ukraine” or “that they are moving or are in Ukraine,” a senior US defense official told reporters Monday.

The forces inside Ukraine are Russian. Russian President Vladimir Putin has “just under 75% of the combat power that he had assembled” for this invasion inside of Ukraine right now, the official said.

CNN reported earlier that Ukrainian intelligence indicates Belarusian "readiness to maybe participate directly" in the invasion of Ukraine, "in addition to allowing Russians to use their territory as well as letting them cross the border."

A second source close to the Ukrainian government told CNN that in addition to the Ukrainian intelligence, the Biden administration has also conveyed to the Ukrainian government that Belarus is preparing to invade Ukraine.

 

[Nicodeamus]

Putin want to take the entirety of the Ukraine Coast and connect the mainland directly with Transnistria (Moldova) then do the same what he did the Donbass Regions

It does seem like he wants to establish a land corridor to crimea and cut of Ukraine's access to the black sea.

 

[The Trutherizer]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498123383225131010

BS.

Honest commenters at least acknowledge that external (outside Europe and NATO vs Russia, and of course Ukraine itself) support in this struggle, and soo many others in the past, are by and large split along ideological and religious lines. Support for or against either Democracy/Capitalism vs Socialism (which really is baggage from the cold war for the most part), or Islam vs Every other Religion.

But this struggle has nothing to do with racism or any ideology. It is pure territorial conquest. A return to colonial times.

The West vs/with Russia/China history in the a nutshell:
Before WW2 Russia fomented regime change in China to spread it's Bolshevik philosophies. The West was allied with both during WW2. Helped save the Soviet Union against real Nazis. Helped China repel Imperial Japan.
Get's into a fight over the spoils of war in Germany, as well as nuclear weapons. Enter - Cold war.
During the cold war the USSR backed any government or rebel group, regardless of skin colour, who would embrace Communism. Who love them still today. The West backed any government or rebel group, regardless of skin colour, who would oppose Communism. Who love them still today.
After the cold war, set alliances and partnerships mostly persisted, with the notable exception that the West switched from an anti-Communist agenda to a pro-Democratic one, regardless of skin colour. (South Africa anybody)
After the cold war Russia mostly just kept up the exact same alliances and partnerships, regardless of skin colour, and definitely regardless of human rights or Democratic credentials. The latter mostly thanks almost exclusively to Putin.


Syria... Massive Russian military backing of authoritarian minority government. Bombs the living daylights out of the majority. Europe takes the refugees.
But no... "Evil racist west has no sympathy for dark skins."

Mentions Iran, but doesn't mention Iran backing of Houthi insurgents (geo-religious motivation) in both Yemen and Ethiopia (both also mentioned). West and allies back incumbent majorities (I suppose in the context one has to point out non-white) governments. Europe takes refugees.
Iran's religious fundamentalist commitment to wipe Israel off the map of the planet.

How about Sudan? Another religious conflict spurred on by amongst others Iran. UN provides aid relief. Europe takes refugees.

How about Mali? Government asks France to assist against Islamist insurgents. France helps. Military junta stages a coup on the grounds that the government response to insurgents is ineffective. The last fart from the previous government hasn't even dissipated from government buildings, and the Junta is already making the French presence about colonialism, exploitation and racism. So many love the rhetoric. Cheers and jeers as France leaves again as is asked of them. Europe takes refugees.
Mali junta can now write assistance from the West on their foreheads.

What about Korea? Compare the Western backed South vs The Russian and China backed North. No comparison. People in the South loving life. The North? Not so much. Yet another scenario where the Soviet Union and later Russia happily support, deals with and protect dictators.

Haiti Occupation in 1915 before NATO and even the UN. The concept "West" was a sign on a compass then. Zero ideological connotations. Essentially one could argue that the US did to Haiti back then, a century ago, exactly what Russia is doing to Ukraine.

 

[greg0205]

Wow, even FIFA is getting involved? What a crossover.

FIFA had to be shamed into this.

Yesterday they said Russia could still play, but at neutral venues with no flags or anthems, and not as Russia, rather the Football Union of Russia

Poland, Sweden, and the FA told them to shove it, and here we are.

FIFA and the IOC are the granddaddies of corrupt sporting organisations all the little corrupt sporting organisations want to grow up to be.

 

[Defonotaltaccount]

Never fails to amaze me the destruction modern arms can do

Just wait until you see the damage that modern media can inflict.

 

[Wrath of Khan]

So I wasn't far off with my suppositions around a lack of air superiority. Doesn't sound like the Russian AF is in a particularly good place at present.

no no don't be fooled.. there is always a method to a persons madness. Aircraft cost a lot more than the odd truck or rocket. Let the ground machinery do their jobs and when they are sure it's safe, all hell could break loose.

The Russians have been planning this war for years... this is not a weekend drunken bar decision.

 

[MagNorthDigital]

Penal legions are the staple of any place winning a war.
They also never increase the crime rate.
They are reformed, i am told.

Sounds painful...

 

[Kosmik]

So I wasn't far off with my suppositions around a lack of air superiority. Doesn't sound like the Russian AF is in a particularly good place at present.

Well, let's take another angle. Tanks and heavy armour are going in but being hit by highly portable infantry weapons. Tanks are useless in urban warfare unless they are going to be gloves off and go scorched earth. Now, if you take Armour out the picture and it's more effective for Ukrainians to fight as infantry only for hit and run, what are your aircraft going to bomb/hit? Intense bombing has already taken place so likely the available targets have been hit already.

This now becomes either a siege mentality or infantry war EXCEPT for the corridor that is being made in the east. That will probably become a new front and be re-enforced from both directions to sandwich the territories in between.

Armchair analysis.

 

[Gyre]

A thread.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497609615151800323

1. Hero stories popup immediately, that end up not being true. The 13 guards telling the Russian naval ship to **** off (turns out they surrendered), the "Ghost of Kyiv" (doesn't seem to be true), the sunflower seed story, etc...

It's almost as if war is **** and people need something to survive the depression

 

[MagNorthDigital]

A bit embarrassing as a soldier getting heckled as you have to walk to your destination

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498319008189329410

Now it all makes sense... The EFF, The ANC, Russia... The simplest answers are generally the correct ones.

 

[pinball wizard]

BS.

Honest commenters at least acknowledge that external (outside Europe) support in this struggle, and soo many others in the past, are by and large split along ideological and religious lines. Support for or against either Democracy/Capitalism vs Socialism (which really is baggage from the cold war for the most part), or Islam vs Every other Religion.

But this struggle has nothing to do with racism or any ideology. It is pure territorial conquest. A return to colonial times.

The West vs/with Russia/China history in the a nutshell:
Before WW2 Russia fomented regime change in China to spread it's Bolshevik philosophies. The West was allied with both during WW2. Helped save the Soviet Union against real Nazis. Helped China repel Imperial Japan.
Get's into a fight over the spoils of war in Germany, as well as nuclear weapons. Enter - Cold war.
During the cold war the USSR backed any government or rebel group, regardless of skin colour, who would embrace Communism. Who love them still today. The West backed any government or rebel group, regardless of skin colour, who would oppose Communism. Who love them still today.
After the cold war, set alliances and partnerships mostly persisted, with the notable exception that the West switched from an anti-Communist agenda to a pro-Democratic one, regardless of skin colour. (South Africa anybody)
After the cold war Russia mostly just kept up the exact same alliances and partnerships, regardless of skin colour, and definitely regardless of human rights or Democratic credentials. The latter mostly thanks almost exclusively to Putin.


Syria... Massive Russian military backing of authoritarian minority government. Bombs the living daylights out of the majority. Europe takes the refugees.
But no... "Evil racist west has no sympathy for dark skins."

Mentions Iran, but doesn't mention Iran backing of Houthi insurgents (geo-religious motivation) in both Yemen and Ethiopia (both also mentioned). West and allies back incumbent majorities (I suppose in the context one has to point out non-white) governments. Europe takes refugees.
Iran's religious fundamentalist commitment to wipe Israel off the map of the planet.

How about Sudan? Another religious conflict spurred on by amongst others Iran. UN provides aid relief. Europe takes refugees.

How about Mali? Government asks France to assist against Islamist insurgents. France helps. Military junta stages a coup on the grounds that the government response to insurgents is ineffective. The last fart from the previous government hasn't even dissipated from government buildings, and the Junta is already making the French presence about colonialism, exploitation and racism. So many love the rhetoric. Cheers and jeers as France leaves again as is asked of them. Europe takes refugees.
Mali junta can now write assistance from the West on their foreheads.

What about Korea? Compare the Western backed South vs The Russian and China backed North. No comparison. People in the South loving life. The North? Not so much. Yet another scenario where the Soviet Union and later Russia happily support, deals with and protect dictators.

Haiti Occupation in 1915 before NATO and even the UN. The concept "West" was a sign on a compass then. Zero ideological connotations. Essentially one could argue that the US did to Haiti back then, a century ago, exactly what Russia is doing to Ukraine.

Blah blah blah. Anti Russia and anti China for no reason but the indoctrination you have undergone. You're a shill. No more. No less.

 

[Wrath of Khan]

Well, let's take another angle. Tanks and heavy armour are going in but being hit by highly portable infantry weapons. Tanks are useless in urban warfare unless they are going to be gloves off and go scorched earth. Now, if you take Armour out the picture and it's more effective for Ukrainians to fight as infantry only for hit and run, what are your aircraft going to bomb/hit? Intense bombing has already taken place so likely the available targets have been hit already.

This now becomes either a siege mentality or infantry war EXCEPT for the corridor that is being made in the east. That will probably become a new front and be re-enforced from both directions to sandwich the territories in between.

Armchair analysis.

I don't fully understand Russia's tactics here, they are focused on taking their cities when in my mind, they should have quickly sealed off Ukraine's western border so no supplies can come in from the western countries. Bypass all their cities and in a pincer move seal it off... they are wasting their time attacking cities = heavy casualties on both sides.

 

[Fulcrum29]

A thread.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497609615151800323

I don't know who Max Tucker is, but I lost him at this point,

I have no doubt that real Ukrainians civilians are dying and suffering on the ground, and that sucks.

But do these actions seem like the actions of warring states? No.

In the American media, it seems like a spectacle put on to either distract or "manufacture consent."

 

[Scooby_Doo]

I don't fully understand Russia's tactics here, they are focused on taking their cities when in my mind, they should have quickly sealed off Ukraine's western border so no supplies can come in from the western countries. Bypass all their cities and in a pincer move seal it off... they are wasting their time attacking cities = heavy casualties on both sides.

Too close to Nato land.

 

[Spizz]

Blah blah blah. Anti Russia and anti China for no reason but the indoctrination you have undergone. You're a shill. No more. No less.

And just what would this indoctrination entail?