Using liquid natural gas powerships for emergency power is a mistake - Chris Yelland

Iwojima

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Brushing aside the fact that storage of wind and solar generation of the scale required using current battery tech is largely unproven in terms of reliability,maintenance and cost...can it be built and commissioned in a short enough timeframe to compete with what the powerships can deliver almost instantaneously (barring the grid tie in)?

I'm thinking probably not.
 

mypetcow

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Stop with your constant BS. Wind picks up after sunset, so either peak power during sunset for summer, or just after in winter when wind picks up.
You should be building gas peakers for short-term anyways, but why hire it as a power ship when renewable is usually <1 year to build, and South Africa can get its own gas peakers at way lower cost that are also <2 years usually.
There is enough power to handle "peak" load if they add solar and wind, and a lot of the power issues can be sorted by allowing better feed back, since most large companies are already building their own small systems since they cannot handle Eskom's volatility in power delivery times.
Free education powered by Wikipedia. For those of us who don’t have an electrical engineering degree.;)

“The wind is an intermittent energy source, which cannot be dispatched on demand.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power


“Non-dispatchable renewable energy sources such as wind powerand solar photovoltaic (PV) power cannot be controlled by operators.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dispatchable_generation

Perhaps you should reevaluate your statement about who is talking the BS... :ROFL:
 

Johnatan56

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Depends where you are in SA. In Pretoria there is very little wind after sunset. In the Karoo, where wind farms are being constructed, the wind is strongest in the afternoon due to hot air rising and cool air moving in to take its place. On the West Coast the wind can rage for weeks.
You don't build wind in places with little wind, and you'd spread it across the country, the landmass is large enough that you will never have no wind everywhere.
Do you not see how the blue goes all over the place? That isn't predictable and it's not a myth the power companies call Wind and Solar as non-dispatchable power because it's erratic.
It is predictable, case in point is the fact that e.g. UK has their gas peakers pulling the load for when dies down. Weather services have existed for quite a while, and you can definitely tell the wind pattern within a day.

Do note btw, that by 2032 it is expected that solar + storage will be cheaper than natural gas even if it is only used for peak.

You're constantly arguing solar and wind in isolation, it isn't.

Also note Eskom has a bit over 1.4GW of installed wind power, not across that much of an area, you will see a lot more variation than you would if they actually built it up.

Brushing aside the fact that storage of wind and solar generation of the scale required using current battery tech is largely unproven in terms of reliability,maintenance and cost...can it be built and commissioned in a short enough timeframe to compete with what the powerships can deliver almost instantaneously (barring the grid tie in)?

I'm thinking probably not.
Depends on renewable, e.g. solar is 3 months min no matter what you build due to logistics, but once you scale up it depends on logistics again.

E.g. the 2016 Kamuthi plant that is 650MW was built and comissioned in <1 year.
Wind has similar times usually.

The biggest issue with such renewable is government license, scoping the place you're going to build it (e.g. will it harm wildlife where it is, how is the weather there, is there a grid connection and if yes, can it support it and cost to upgrade/build, etc.).

Way faster than coal and generally faster than CCGT and gas peakers.
Free education powered by Wikipedia. For those of us who don’t have an electrical engineering degree.;)

“The wind is an intermittent energy source, which cannot be dispatched on demand.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power


“Non-dispatchable renewable energy sources such as wind powerand solar photovoltaic (PV) power cannot be controlled by operators.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dispatchable_generation

Perhaps you should reevaluate your statement about who is talking the BS... :ROFL:
Wtf are you talking about, I said that it doesn't matter that it's non-dispatchable, not that it isn't. Red herring there.
 

Lupus

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You don't build wind in places with little wind, and you'd spread it across the country, the landmass is large enough that you will never have no wind everywhere.

It is predictable, case in point is the fact that e.g. UK has their gas peakers pulling the load for when dies down. Weather services have existed for quite a while, and you can definitely tell the wind pattern within a day.

Do note btw, that by 2032 it is expected that solar + storage will be cheaper than natural gas even if it is only used for peak.

You're constantly arguing solar and wind in isolation, it isn't.

Also note Eskom has a bit over 1.4GW of installed wind power, not across that much of an area, you will see a lot more variation than you would if they actually built it up.
Actually 2.6GW installed not 1.4GW

1619006695488.png
 

Johnatan56

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Actually 2.6GW installed not 1.4GW

View attachment 1056203
All within the last ~3 months, sure, was looking at stuff pre-September, forgot about the 3/4 plants that finally got connected.
Note as well that that is nameplate capacity, so you're looking at 50-75% of installed, so general output should be 1.2GW planned. And again, looking at time of output, usually coincides with peak demand.
They're also not very spread currently, so as said, you will have variation. Still cheap compared to coal, gas etc. so can build way more capacity for cheap and handle the variation.

And again you're arguing vacuum as well.

EDIT:
And do remember, most wind farms are located in Western, Northern and Eastern Cape, windiest months are spring to beginning Autumn, so you're seeing the most wind in the beginning of that graph vs what is probably the least wind of the year before starts becoming a little bit more in winter.
 
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Iwojima

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Also how does this article provide more information than the articles that came just a few weeks ago?

6 April 2021: https://mybroadband.co.za/news/ener...ips-over-solar-power-and-battery-storage.html

And

3 April 2021: https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/391927-powerships-for-south-africa-what-to-expect.html
Oh it doesn't, but one additional article every time the same "expert" opens his mouth is the norm here.

My favourite of late was Blom trying to weigh in on Eskom's Oracle debacle and proving himself to be full of hot air and an attention whore.
 

Hummercellc

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Could Solar and Wind not be tied to Hydro pump storage?
Yes they will be massive plants, but the excess energy generated from Solar and Wind could be used to pump water up and then in turn used during peak times.

The Hydro dams would need to be sized correctly and build simultaneously with the Wind and Solar Farms.
 

mypetcow

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Wtf are you talking about, I said that it doesn't matter that it's non-dispatchable, not that it isn't. Red herring there.
But it does matter, no red herrings here...that's why the power ships make sense from an electricity provision point of view. The wind and the sun are not dispatchable and that's what Eskom needs...for the power to be dispatchable.

No need to get defensive.

One thing that you may want to look at is the frequency control that the power ships can provide and that PV and wind cannot...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_reserve

FYI with the power ships vs. own peaker plants: the cost to Eskom from the power ships includes everything..fuel, operations and maintenance, etc. so they don't need to worry about maintaining anything and simply get some power at a price for the duration of the contract. Essentially no money down, no investment necessary....think AWS or Google Cloud as opposed to investing in and maintaining your own server infrastructure. The former is a monthly pay as you use agreement (like the power ships) whereas the latter requires a substantial initial investment + maintenance/running costs to keep everything functional and secure.
If you're on a tight budget which one makes logical sense? ;)
 
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Swa

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Solar and Wind are non-dispatchable and we'd still need to have some form of power during the peak periods.
Stop with this please. This isn't about what solar and wind aren't but about what we currently have. Currently only hydroelectric, biomass, geothermal and ocean thermal are really dispatchable. Coal and nuclear are not. Eskom's OCGTs are not ideal. And you're talking in isolation here. Solar and wind can be dispatchable with storage.

Yes, but it's completely predictable. The dispatch-able thing seems to be you trying to say the non-reliable myth but sounding like you know more than you do.
Someone on mybb learned a new buzz word. They failed to read further and notice that coal is only dispatchable on paper. In practice there is no dispatchable coal and nuclear is even worse. Eskom's generation is certainly not dispatchable being intermittently available and then not.

The batteries needed for that amount of power would be massively expensive. What would work is having solar being able to pump water up for peaks in the evening, perhaps getting wind to do the same or something. Pity we don't have any geothermal.

Do you not see how the blue goes all over the place? That isn't predictable and it's not a myth the power companies call Wind and Solar as non-dispatchable power because it's erratic.
Current battery tech is not so expensive and is getting cheaper. At scale it will cost less than this. It's disingenuous for power companies to claim solar and wind as non-dispatchable while their own fossil fuels are not.

But it does matter, no red herrings here...that's why the power ships make sense from an electricity provision point of view. The wind and the sun are not dispatchable and that's what Eskom needs...for the power to be dispatchable.

No need to get defensive.

One thing that you may want to look at is the frequency control that the power ships can provide and that PV and wind cannot...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_reserve

FYI with the power ships vs. own peaker plants: the cost to Eskom from the power ships includes everything..fuel, operations and maintenance, etc. so they don't need to worry about maintaining anything and simply get some power at a price for the duration of the contract. Essentially no money down, no investment necessary....think AWS or Google Cloud as opposed to investing in and maintaining your own server infrastructure. The former is a monthly pay as you use agreement (like the power ships) whereas the latter requires a substantial initial investment + maintenance/running costs to keep everything functional and secure.
If you're on a tight budget which one makes logical sense? ;)
These power ships make the least sense given our debt situation. The cost also doesn't include everything. The fuel is variable and is likely to increase as well as the fact it's imported and not locally sourced.
 

markings

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What I don't understand is the length on the contact.
Surely we should use the ships until we can build our own gas fired generators. That should cost less than renting generators, and we then own the infrastructure
Me too. The reason for power ships must be that they can go wherever and only for how long they are needed. Are they saying that once the new power stations are online we still do not have enough power or that it will take 20 years to complete them?
 

mypetcow

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Oh boy.

So let me get this straight:
On the one hand Eskom is too incompetent to operate their existing power stations and there it much "corruption" et al.
On the other hand when Eskom decides it wants to get some power from a service provider thus not requiring any operational and maintenance knowhow etc. at a fixed price the question that pops up in the mind of all MyBB power experts is "why aren't building their own capacity?!"

I guess Eskom has decided that it should not upset the powers that be on the MyBB forum and that outsourcing power would lead to fewer complaint posts than if they were to build their own generation capacity.

I mean if Eskom were to build its own generator capacity certain "experts" would voice their opinions on how much corruption is involved, how much more expensive than xyz it would be, etc.

So I guess either way people will complain and Eskom only cares about fulfilling their mandate to....provide power to SA.
 
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wingnut771

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Oh boy.

So let me get this straight:
On the one hand Eskom is too incompetent to operate their existing power stations and there it much "corruption" et al.
On the other hard when Eskom decides it wants to get some power from a service provider thus not requiring any operational and maintenance knowhow etc. at a fixed price the question that pops up in the mind of all MyBB power experts is "why aren't building their own capacity?!"

I guess Eskom has decided that it should not upset the powers that be on the MyBB forum and that outsourcing power would lead to fewer complaint posts than if they were to build their own generation capacity.

I mean if Eskom were to build its own generator capacity certain "experts" would voice their opinions on how much corruption is involved, how much more expensive than xyz it would be, etc.

So I guess either way people will complain and Eskom only cares about fulfilling their mandate to....provide power to SA.
No one is saying Eskom must do it. All we are asking for is that Gweezy sign a few pieces of paper and let the private sector do it.
 

DXL

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Looks like Gwede has done a corrupt deal again. I often ask myself why these ANC people just continue to steal and then preach against corruption to the public.

The ANC does not care for its poor Citizens as long as they can steal all is good.

Every province Every Municipality - Every position theft is involved.

Yet nobody gets prosecuted and jailed.
 

Iwojima

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Current battery tech is not so expensive and is getting cheaper. At scale it will cost less than this. It's disingenuous for power companies to claim solar and wind as non-dispatchable while their own fossil fuels are not.
So which battery tech are you referring to store and dispatch the scale of energy involved in replacing the need for these powerships (i.e. in excess of 1200MW)? i.e. what design can be pointed to that could do this on a large scale?

I certainly hope you're not simply scaling up in your mind what a household, business or even farm would deploy.

While we're at it, what timeframe are we talking in getting these in place, i.e. additional solar and wind generation + the storage solution?
 

mypetcow

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So which battery tech are you referring to store and dispatch the scale of energy involved in replacing the need for these powerships (i.e. in excess of 1200MW)? i.e. what design can be pointed to that could do this on a large scale?

I certainly hope you're not simply scaling up in your mind what a household, business or even farm would deploy.

While we're at it, what timeframe are we talking in getting these in place, i.e. additional solar and wind generation + the storage solution?
I’m curious to find out as well.
 

TheChamp

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Oh boy.

So let me get this straight:
On the one hand Eskom is too incompetent to operate their existing power stations and there it much "corruption" et al.
On the other hand when Eskom decides it wants to get some power from a service provider thus not requiring any operational and maintenance knowhow etc. at a fixed price the question that pops up in the mind of all MyBB power experts is "why aren't building their own capacity?!"

I guess Eskom has decided that it should not upset the powers that be on the MyBB forum and that outsourcing power would lead to fewer complaint posts than if they were to build their own generation capacity.

I mean if Eskom were to build its own generator capacity certain "experts" would voice their opinions on how much corruption is involved, how much more expensive than xyz it would be, etc.

So I guess either way people will complain and Eskom only cares about fulfilling their mandate to....provide power to SA.
Now you understand how things work on this forum.
 

Geoff.D

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What I don't understand is the length on the contact.
Surely we should use the ships until we can build our own gas fired generators. That should cost less than renting generators, and we then own the infrastructure
We already have our own gas-fired generators ......... But not necessarily enough.
 
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