Violence in Crime, Could Lead be the cause ?

[Nanfeishen]

We live in a violent country, much of the violence links back to our political past, and the general socio-economic climate.
However it has also been acknowledged that there seems to be a diproportionate amount of excessive violence associated with criminal activity.

Some recent studies have linked childhood lead exposure to increased violence with a lag of roughly 22 years.
As well as spiking teen pregnancy 15 -17 years after a reduction in leaded fuel.

Childhood exposure to lead dust has been linked to lasting physical and behavioral effects, and now lead dust from vehicles using leaded gasoline has been linked to instances of aggravated assault two decades after exposure, says Tulane toxicologist Howard W. Mielke.

Vehicles using leaded gasoline that contaminated cities’ air decades ago have increased aggravated assault in urban areas, researchers say.

The new findings are published in the journal Environment International by Mielke, a research professor in the Department of Pharmacology at the Tulane University School of Medicine, and demographer Sammy Zahran at the Center for Disaster and Risk Analysis at Colorado State University.


The researchers compared the amount of lead released in six cities: Atlanta, Chicago, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, New Orleans and San Diego, during the years 1950–1985. This period saw an increase in airborne lead dust exposure due to the use of leaded gasoline. There were correlating spikes in the rates of aggravated assault approximately two decades later, after the exposed children grew up.


After controlling for other possible causes such as community and household income, education, policing effort and incarceration rates, Mielke and Zahran found that for every one percent increase in tonnages of environmental lead released 22 years earlier, the present rate of aggravated assault was raised by 0.46 percent.

“Children are extremely sensitive to lead dust, and lead exposure has latent neuroanatomical effects that severely impact future societal behavior and welfare,” says Mielke. “Up to 90 per cent of the variation in aggravated assault across the cities is explained by the amount of lead dust released 22 years earlier.”

http://tulane.edu/news/releases/pr_041712.cfm

Lead Dust Is Linked to Violence, Study Suggests
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120417162725.htm

Close correlation between environmental lead and criminal violence

http://www.itwire.com/science-news/...ween-environmental-lead-and-criminal-violence

The Answer is Lead Poisoning - Rick Nevin
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...9N9KmD&sig=AHIEtbTj1mSpfn9FMEsZGaivfGM35xwxrQ

Lead and Crime: A Linkfest
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime-linkfest

It seems that in South Africa, there are huge issues with overly elevated lead/blood levels in young people.

1991 Aug;94:125-30.
Blood lead levels in South African inner-city children.

At the time of the study, South Africa had one of the highest levels of lead in gasoline in the Western World, namely, 0.836 g/L.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1720096

A thesis by Angela Mathee -SA Medical Research Council :
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...qPbHLw&sig=AHIEtbTLDHX8468NEQwVxjcie-087oTgUQ

The studies were run in a number of countries, however South Africa was not included in them.
Looking at the model presented by the studies and running it against some stats in South Africa, yields some interesting results:

In 1973 South Africa suffered an oil embargo, which lead to huge restrictions in petrol and reduced usage by significant levels , this lasted roughly about a year.
22 years later overall recorded crime levels dipped and slightly stabilised in the period 1995 -1996.

levels of recorded crime stabilised between 1995 and 1996

http://www.iss.co.za/pubs/Papers/49/Paper49.html

Unleaded fuel was introduced into South Africa circa 1996.
almost 15 years later 2010 -11 there appears to be a reported spike in Teenage preganancy

teenage pregnancies have increased by 21% in the past few years.

http://topnews.net.nz/content/213593-teenage-pregnancies-rise-21-across-south-africa

17 000 pregnancies at KZN schools in 2010

http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/17-000-pregnancies-at-KZN-schools-in-2010-20110310

South Africa Concerned Over Rising Teen Pregnancy Rates
by VR Sreeraman on April 08, 2011
http://www.medindia.net/news/South-Africa-Concerned-Over-Rising-Teen-Pregnancy-Rates-83364-1.htm

I have only found easy access web items, and obviously 2 examples dont mean that much, but is it possible that there could be some merit to the theories proposed by the studies ?

 

[WaxLyrical]

So leaded super is on special in Muldersdrift?

 

[Ou grote]

Lead bullets could have something to do with it.

 

[intel8080]

Was leaded petrol only used in South Africa? WTF This has to be the worst k@k I heard about this weekend And 20 years nogal

 

[Eager Chinchilla]

The reason you have high levels of violence in SA is because the criminals just cannot control their base instincts.

 

[murraybiscuit]

The reason you have high levels of violence in SA is because the criminals just cannot control their base instincts.

south africa has a history of migrant labour, tribal tension, social dislocation, entrenched discrimination, political corruption, a massive fallout from hiv, poor public access to education, healthcare and social services, and is fourth from the bottom on the gini index (world bank 2009). but i'm sure that has nothing to do with it - let's just pretend it's a simple problem with a simple solution.

 

[murraybiscuit]

Was leaded petrol only used in South Africa? WTF This has to be the worst k@k I heard about this weekend And 20 years nogal

no, if you read the study, it compares other cities with similar crime and pollution correlates. the logic isn't bad.
there could be some causal links, but it's difficult to control for imo. it's an interesting avenue to explore.
that said, trying to reduce violent crime to a single causal factor is clearly wishful thinking.

 

[Eager Chinchilla]

south africa has a history of migrant labour, tribal tension, social dislocation, entrenched discrimination, political corruption, a massive fallout from hiv, poor public access to education, healthcare and social services, and is fourth from the bottom on the gini index (world bank 2009). but i'm sure that has nothing to do with it - let's just pretend it's a simple problem with a simple solution.

Most of the people who have had to endure what you listed, do not engage in violent crime.....