What happens if South Africa’s electricity grid fails

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,555
It depends how you look at it, as I see it.

Eskom using Peaking Plants as Base Load is really not a good Idea.
So we should remove all Peaking Plant figures, as they are just that, for peak and emergencies.
The whole point of peaking plants is to temporarily fill a gap in a Jam.
If you add up the stats posted by the Eskom Spokesperson on Twitter from 01/06/2021.

OCGT Usage = 3045 Megawatts
Hydro Usage = 2794 Megawatts
VPS = 282 Megawatts
Load Shedding = 2292 Megawatts
TOTAL: 8413 Megawatts short
Uhmm what?
I think you need to know how to read those numbers
Eskom used 9 OCTGS which gives roughly 1350MW not sure where you got 3045 from?

1622726663944.png
This is from their data portal.
So it was actually
OCTG - 1182
Hydro usage - 1047

Looking at his Tweet it shows the following

1622726871632.png

So pray tell where did you get your figures?
If you're referring to the following

1622726978750.png

That's still not 3045 OCTG, that's if you include the IPP which you don't, is 2700, without the IPP it would've been 1959. Also pumped for that day was 1180? So where oh where do you get your numbers from? Starting to sound a bit like Ted Bloom and Chris Yelland.
I'm all for attacking Eskom, but you've got to do it with the right numbers and things.
 

Hummercellc

Expert Member
Joined
Jan 6, 2008
Messages
3,440
Uhmm what?
I think you need to know how to read those numbers
Eskom used 9 OCTGS which gives roughly 1350MW not sure where you got 3045 from?

View attachment 1082587
This is from their data portal.
So it was actually
OCTG - 1182
Hydro usage - 1047

Looking at his Tweet it shows the following

View attachment 1082593

So pray tell where did you get your figures?
You missed the point.

Maybe I have the wrong night sorry.
Will double check.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,555
You missed the point.

Maybe I have the wrong night sorry.
Will double check.
No I don't miss the point, you can't go making up numbers, even at most Eskom has 3GW of OCTGS, if it's burning all 20 at the same time, I've edited as you for some reason thought May 31st was the 1st, but even then your figures were wrong.
If you want to know how short eskom is they are short 14+GW on their Thermal generation which is coal, but Eskom has never just been about coal, they've had peaking and hydro for peaks as always, so their total capacity would be 45GW but at present we've got a total capacity of 31GW so not really 8GW short. At most 2GW short, short is if they couldn't fire up the OCTGs, couldn't utilise pumped storage or the international imports.


The data portal exists, it's not as impressive as gridwatch.co.uk and it's only updating every day around 1pm. But it's there.
This is what is worrying, the EAP is low. We should be ideally sitting at 70 to 80% but we've not hit 70% since last year May, our unplanned outages have been horrid this year, even with the supposed maintenance done in Summer.

1622727547836.png
 

Hummercellc

Expert Member
Joined
Jan 6, 2008
Messages
3,440
No I don't miss the point, you can't go making up numbers, even at most Eskom has 3GW of OCTGS, if it's burning all 20 at the same time, I've edited as you for some reason thought May 31st was the 1st, but even then your figures were wrong.
If you want to know how short eskom is they are short 14+GW on their Thermal generation which is coal, but Eskom has never just been about coal, they've had peaking and hydro for peaks as always, so their total capacity would be 45GW but at present we've got a total capacity of 31GW so not really 8GW short. At most 2GW short, short is if they couldn't fire up the OCTGs, couldn't utilise pumped storage or the international imports.


The data portal exists, it's not as impressive as gridwatch.co.uk and it's only updating every day around 1pm. But it's there.
Ok
 

Iwojima

Expert Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2007
Messages
3,493
I'm all for attacking Eskom, but you've got to do it with the right numbers and things.
Precisely.

Lashing out (out of understandable frustration) with little understanding of what the numbers mean and how it all fits together and then making grandiose statements and accusations is a recipe for, at the very least, being challenged by those who understand more.

Unfortunately some people let confirmation bias override an otherwise intelligent, critical mind.
 
Last edited:

Swa

Honorary Master
Joined
May 4, 2012
Messages
29,753
That's not proof, that sounds like when a grid is getting overloading and tripping. Or they are load reducing
How is that proof that Eskom did anything? More anecdotal , TBH Kak infrastructure can go off on the hour by coincidence , and being an Eskom direct customer lol I can tell you they don't ever cut us on the exact time for scheduled load shedding :)

Did your Municipality confirm this seems if this was the case they would be happy to to throw Eskom under the bus? and before you say they wont plenty of municipalities have no issue with throwing Eskom under the bus when they have messed, I would really like to see it myself.

Look I'm not defending Eskom they **** plain and simple and should be taken to task (and I do trust me), at the same time the municipality should also be taking responsibility and fix their **** as well , and to me its seems clear your councillor is just passing the buck so he doesn't have to deal with the issue (see do his job) at council so he just says its Eskom ,so nothing he can do.
Try pushing the councillor to state what he or she claims on social media and he or she will either keep quiet or make a claim no he cant for fear of loosing his or her job some sad story.
Yeah it's just the grid. Again last night after twelve for two ours. Then this morning from 8 to 12. Didn't know grid failures follow the clock but believe what you will.
 

Swa

Honorary Master
Joined
May 4, 2012
Messages
29,753
No I don't miss the point, you can't go making up numbers, even at most Eskom has 3GW of OCTGS, if it's burning all 20 at the same time, I've edited as you for some reason thought May 31st was the 1st, but even then your figures were wrong.
If you want to know how short eskom is they are short 14+GW on their Thermal generation which is coal, but Eskom has never just been about coal, they've had peaking and hydro for peaks as always, so their total capacity would be 45GW but at present we've got a total capacity of 31GW so not really 8GW short. At most 2GW short, short is if they couldn't fire up the OCTGs, couldn't utilise pumped storage or the international imports.


The data portal exists, it's not as impressive as gridwatch.co.uk and it's only updating every day around 1pm. But it's there.
This is what is worrying, the EAP is low. We should be ideally sitting at 70 to 80% but we've not hit 70% since last year May, our unplanned outages have been horrid this year, even with the supposed maintenance done in Summer.

View attachment 1082603
Yes you do miss the point. It's not about what Eskum claims to be short but what the supply is. Covid has resulted in less usage and still they can't keep up with demand. If you count all the businesses that were closed and Eskum still couldn't manage to avoid loadshedding it amounts to stage 8. So all of the predictions up till now have been spot on. Sorry but I believe those over what you claim to be the case.
 

Swa

Honorary Master
Joined
May 4, 2012
Messages
29,753
They could do it on a more equitable basis and communicate an actual schedule. I don't for a moment believe that the same times every day and multiple times each day constitute them having an actual schedule they are following. They are simply switching us off now as a first measure every time. If it goes off again today it will be three times or twelve hours in a day whichever way you want to look at it. This is total crap. Eskum can now go screw themselves. When the power went back on this morning I put on the heater in preparation already so it's nice and warm. They ask us to "save" power but then don't have the decency to allow us to plan so IDGAF any more.
 

Toxic T

Expert Member
Joined
Mar 13, 2013
Messages
1,141
I expect an article to be published soon that they need more money to fix loadshedding and they need to increase the cost of electricity. You can almost set your clock to the way they think and work.

As expected
 
  • Like
Reactions: Swa

Iwojima

Expert Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2007
Messages
3,493

Iwojima

Expert Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2007
Messages
3,493
Yes you do miss the point. It's not about what Eskum claims to be short but what the supply is. Covid has resulted in less usage and still they can't keep up with demand. If you count all the businesses that were closed and Eskum still couldn't manage to avoid loadshedding it amounts to stage 8. So all of the predictions up till now have been spot on. Sorry but I believe those over what you claim to be the case.
Demand has been on a slow and steady decline as a result of numerous factors for several years, including a shrinking economy and people switching to hybrid/renewable solutions. There was no sudden significant nor permanent reduction that was not out of line of already shrinking demand trends that could be attributed to Covid.

Still waiting for this Stage 8/8000MW shortfall period to be referenced. The biggest shortfall I can recall was around 4000MW.
 
Last edited:

isie

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 16, 2010
Messages
12,564
They could do it on a more equitable basis and communicate an actual schedule. I don't for a moment believe that the same times every day and multiple times each day constitute them having an actual schedule they are following. They are simply switching us off now as a first measure every time. If it goes off again today it will be three times or twelve hours in a day whichever way you want to look at it. This is total crap. Eskum can now go screw themselves. When the power went back on this morning I put on the heater in preparation already so it's nice and warm. They ask us to "save" power but then don't have the decency to allow us to plan so IDGAF any more.
according to the notice the Municipality supposed to share the schedule
i get the ridiculousness of that they the ones switching so they can share it , but I'm just as dumbfounded at why the municipality is so silent
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,555
Demand has been on a slow and steady decline as a result of numerous factors for several years, including a shrinking economy and people switching to hybrid/renewable solutions. There was no sudden significant nor permanent reduction that was not out of line of already shrinking demand trends that could be attributed to Covid.

Still waiting for this Stage 8/8000MW shortfall period to be referenced. The biggest shortfall I can recall was around 4000MW.
World wide demand is dropping. In the old days lighting used to be a large portion of electric usage, each bulb was 60w, you have 5 of those that's 300w, plus your big old TV on, plus those old fridges and all those other appliances.
Then the world started getting more efficient, now lighting is a small portion of the electrical bill from 300w to 30, TV might be bigger but the consumption is almost half. Fridges have gone down 60%.
So now that almost 1.2 kwh is now 400w an hour.
 

Swa

Honorary Master
Joined
May 4, 2012
Messages
29,753
Demand has been on a slow and steady decline as a result of numerous factors for several years, including a shrinking economy and people switching to hybrid/renewable solutions. There was no sudden significant nor permanent reduction that was not out of line of already shrinking demand trends that could be attributed to Covid.

Still waiting for this Stage 8/8000MW shortfall period to be referenced. The biggest shortfall I can recall was around 4000MW.
That's wrong. There was a significant sudden decline in demand. It does not need to be permanent and only at the same time as Eskum was unable to meet demand, and it was. The actual usage figures were less than other years during the same period and it would have been stage 6-8 load shedding. Sure you can blame the inability to acquire parts as many did but it does not change the facts. Eskum was given stage 8 load shedding without having to even request it.

Not only that but what about our shrinking economy as well as consumers using less electricity over the years? Eskum couldn't even work with that and their supply has continued to dwindle. That is even worse and more concerning than whatever stage of load shedding you are looking at.
 

Swa

Honorary Master
Joined
May 4, 2012
Messages
29,753
according to the notice the Municipality supposed to share the schedule
i get the ridiculousness of that they the ones switching so they can share it , but I'm just as dumbfounded at why the municipality is so silent
It's the whole way this was handled that's so ridiculous. First they did not follow a schedule as the schedule has only been temporarily drawn up now. It was a rush job iow. The times and repetitiveness is also not indicative of a schedule with it sometimes being 2 hours then 3 hours then over 4 hours. It's only now since it's been released that they've been following a schedule. They could have suspended it for the week at least until the schedule was released, would not have made much of a difference.

I also don't quite believe what Eskum is claiming and the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. I know for a fact that there was regular load shedding as cellphone towers in adjacent areas would go down. What happened however was that the municipality focused on the high usage industrial areas as those made the most sense. They also didn't implement it during night when almost nobody was using power. It seems Eskum didn't like that though and wants everyone to suffer equally. It's not about practicality for them.

The ward councillor which is also the shadow mmc for infrastructure has been the most helpful through this at least communicating what information was available.
 

Iwojima

Expert Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2007
Messages
3,493
That's wrong. There was a significant sudden decline in demand. It does not need to be permanent and only at the same time as Eskum was unable to meet demand, and it was. The actual usage figures were less than other years during the same period and it would have been stage 6-8 load shedding. Sure you can blame the inability to acquire parts as many did but it does not change the facts. Eskum was given stage 8 load shedding without having to even request it.

Not only that but what about our shrinking economy as well as consumers using less electricity over the years? Eskum couldn't even work with that and their supply has continued to dwindle. That is even worse and more concerning than whatever stage of load shedding you are looking at.
You can say it's wrong all you like, but you're coming off like you're just wanting to rant and vent here (which again is understandable).

Again, I need to see the figures you've claimed earlier in this thread because they appear to be key to your concerns/beliefs.

Last time I'd looked at those figures (in a previous thread where Lupus and myself were debating shortfalls vs reserves) they did not match with your claims.
 
Last edited:

isie

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 16, 2010
Messages
12,564
It's the whole way this was handled that's so ridiculous. First they did not follow a schedule as the schedule has only been temporarily drawn up now. It was a rush job iow. The times and repetitiveness is also not indicative of a schedule with it sometimes being 2 hours then 3 hours then over 4 hours. It's only now since it's been released that they've been following a schedule. They could have suspended it for the week at least until the schedule was released, would not have made much of a difference.

I also don't quite believe what Eskum is claiming and the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. I know for a fact that there was regular load shedding as cellphone towers in adjacent areas would go down. What happened however was that the municipality focused on the high usage industrial areas as those made the most sense. They also didn't implement it during night when almost nobody was using power. It seems Eskum didn't like that though and wants everyone to suffer equally. It's not about practicality for them.

The ward councillor which is also the shadow mmc for infrastructure has been the most helpful through this at least communicating what information was available.

I'm on the other side you said you do not believe Eskom story, but i can't say i believe the municipality ( well what you say that claim and are not the only one who i heard this from who said the councillor told them) they have not opened up on their side of the story, their silence(again alll they need to do is put their side of the story out) to me speaks volumes, to be honest All eskom cares about is the municipality needs to shed xMW amount of Electricity, how the municipality does that is up to them sounds like the municipality was not giving any or very little.
Your telling me what discussion you had with the councillor/ MMC, so i believe you that she told you this but until she is willing to put the truth out there on a media release or SM (because i haven't seen anything besides what eskom says) is been going on it still looks like she is not willing to be stand by what she says if that is indeed the truth.


Eskom threw them under the bus, least they can do is do return the favour
 
Last edited:

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
36,555
You can say it's wrong all you like, but you're coming off like you're just wanting to rant and vent here (which again is understandable).

Again, I need to see the figures you've claimed earlier in this thread because they appear to be key to your concerns/beliefs.

Last time I'd looked at those figures (in a previous thread where Lupus and myself were debating shortfalls vs reserves) they did not match with your claims.
There has actually has been an increase in demand as well, yes there was a decline in demand back last year, but since December it's been gradually going back up to what it was. In fact last year July/August there were spikes to 34GW in demand which has been the highest spikes in a long time.
 

Swa

Honorary Master
Joined
May 4, 2012
Messages
29,753
You can say it's wrong all you like, but you're coming off like you're just wanting to rant and vent here (which again is understandable).

Again, I need to see the figures you've claimed earlier in this thread because they appear to be key to your concerns/beliefs.

Last time I'd looked at those figures (in a previous thread where Lupus and myself were debating shortfalls vs reserves) they did not match with your claims.
You're coming off like someone who just wants to disagree with the facts. They were published and I'm not going to dig them up again. Again you won't see the figures you want to see because it's not about shortfalls but the amount of power not used and still they couldn't keep up with the demand.

There has actually has been an increase in demand as well, yes there was a decline in demand back last year, but since December it's been gradually going back up to what it was. In fact last year July/August there were spikes to 34GW in demand which has been the highest spikes in a long time.
Those spikes were temporary due to various factors. Our average is still way lower than it was in 2007 and still we continue to have increasing load shedding.
 

Swa

Honorary Master
Joined
May 4, 2012
Messages
29,753
I'm on the other side you said you do not believe Eskom story, but i can't say i believe the municipality ( well what you say that claim and are not the only one who i heard this from who said the councillor told them) they have not opened up on their side of the story, their silence(again alll they need to do is put their side of the story out) to me speaks volumes, to be honest All eskom cares about is the municipality needs to shed xMW amount of Electricity, how the municipality does that is up to them sounds like the municipality was not giving any or very little.
Your telling me what discussion you had with the councillor/ MMC, so i believe you that she told you this but until she is willing to put the truth out there on a media release or SM (because i haven't seen anything besides what eskom says) is been going on it still looks like she is not willing to be stand by what she says if that is indeed the truth.


Eskom threw them under the bus, least they can do is do return the favour
I honestly don't care who is right or wrong there as this is a situation where nobody can be right. What I care about is the fact that even though they state it's now 2.5 hours the power remains off for 3 to 4 hours each time as when you switch off a substation it keeps on tripping. Also what Eskom is ignoring is that we had these mysterious outages near load shedding so every time we had those we were not load shed. Once it was for a whole day and a half after which the following few weeks we were not load shed. That is something Eskom will not take into account.
 
Top