When do you think South Africa will hit its COVID-19 peak?

When do you think South Africa will hit its COVID-19 peak?

  • August

    Votes: 127 37.7%
  • September

    Votes: 100 29.7%
  • October

    Votes: 50 14.8%
  • November

    Votes: 17 5.0%
  • December

    Votes: 9 2.7%
  • Only in 2021

    Votes: 34 10.1%

  • Total voters
    337

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
26,513
I'm saying millions because confirmed is close to 800k and we know not all Covid deaths have been reported, and there's many more to come.
Confirmed is close to 700k not 800k and also how do you know there will be many more to come? I mean you don't worry about TB, HIV or flu deaths like this do you? Why this virus?
 

WaxLyrical

Honorary Master
Joined
Oct 20, 2011
Messages
21,384
Confirmed is close to 700k not 800k and also how do you know there will be many more to come? I mean you don't worry about TB, HIV or flu deaths like this do you? Why this virus?
Despite what other diseases people die from every year, hospitals are sorta coping.
Not with covid. It's almost as if it doubles the death rate even with those other factors considered.
 

Drifter

Honorary Master
Joined
Dec 19, 2012
Messages
19,685
Confirmed is close to 700k not 800k and also how do you know there will be many more to come? I mean you don't worry about TB, HIV or flu deaths like this do you? Why this virus?
Because it's ease of transmission.
 

Derek 6

Active Member
Joined
Aug 31, 2017
Messages
32
I don't think SA will follow the rest of the world, I think it'll progressively increase, because of the lack of discipline, distancing and mask wearing.
 

Johand

Expert Member
Joined
Jan 21, 2005
Messages
1,506
Confirmed is close to 700k not 800k and also how do you know there will be many more to come? I mean you don't worry about TB, HIV or flu deaths like this do you? Why this virus?
Because we have not that many cases and deaths because of the intervention. Exponential growth in outbreaks is nasty. Action between doing something or not doing something can be orders of magnitude - e.g. 10,000 deaths vs. 100,000 deaths.

And more important -- we simply don't know. Nobody really knows the impact of this virus - scientists need time to learn. Things like reinfection, long-term effects on the body of survivors are all not fully understood - best case things will be fine, worst case looks like a world war. And we are holding thumbs there are not problems with mutations. Lots of unknown.

People worried and still worries a lot about TB and HIV - vaccines, constant awareness programs, constant treatment etc. It blurred in the background because treatment became better. HIV at its peak was a HUGE deal.

Comparing it to flu is a strawman. We understand the flu a hell of a lot better. Vulnerable people take precautions (like yearly flu shots!). Beside flu has a much lower mortality rate.

It is not a question of absolutes (because NOBODY knowns where the absolutes are). It is a question of risk and potential impact - driven by statistics, not narratives. But narratives are easier to understand for the layman because they have no clue about statistics or scientific method or risk management.
 

Olddude

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 7, 2006
Messages
113
Covid Peak for New Cases(NC) or Deaths. SA seems to have kit the NC peak last week but peak deaths will likely still be another 3-5 weeks.
 

LoudWillo

Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Messages
10
There's no peak to be reached.Infections will rise until a successful vaccine has been developed.
 

tetrasect

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 22, 2009
Messages
830
The good news is we already have. So none of the above, in terms of cases. The highest number of new cases over a 7-day rolling average occurred on July 19 and is now steadily on the decline.

COVID-19 Cases Trend Graph: South Africa

In terms of deaths, that's a lagging indicator:

COVID-19 Deaths Trend Graph: South Africa
Don't fall for the ruse.

The only thing in decline is the amount of testing being done.



We have pretty much reached rock bottom, our daily numbers are a joke.

saaugtestspercase.jpg


We actually have over 50k new daily cases but they are only testing +/- 20k people a day where we should be testing at the absolute least 250k people a day (seeing as the 25% positivity rate is remaining steady)

dailycaseslog.jpg
 

Gaz{M}

Executive Member
Joined
Feb 9, 2005
Messages
6,262
Don't fall for the ruse.

The only thing in decline is the amount of testing being done.



We have pretty much reached rock bottom, our daily numbers are a joke.

View attachment 888148


We actually have over 50k new daily cases but they are only testing +/- 20k people a day where we should be testing at the absolute least 250k people a day (seeing as the 25% positivity rate is remaining steady)

View attachment 888150
Have you considered that they are testing less because there are simply fewer people who are screened and deemed to need a test?
 

Arthur

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 7, 2003
Messages
25,150
"When do you think South Africa will hit is COVID-19 peak?"

With this lockdown, probably in 5 years. :p

Lockdown/masks/SD only slow the spread over more time, but have minimal to zero impact on number of cases. Remember "flatten the curve"? That's what we're doing - spreading the infections over more time.
 
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