When do you think South Africa will hit its COVID-19 peak?

When do you think South Africa will hit its COVID-19 peak?

  • August

    Votes: 127 37.7%
  • September

    Votes: 100 29.7%
  • October

    Votes: 50 14.8%
  • November

    Votes: 17 5.0%
  • December

    Votes: 9 2.7%
  • Only in 2021

    Votes: 34 10.1%

  • Total voters
    337

briantw

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 11, 2004
Messages
305
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Oh, and also of note, the number of active cases peaked on Jul 20.

These are the official reported numbers from global stats. Obviously stats come with caveats, so bearing that in mind goes without saying.

However, reading through the thread, half of the posts aren't even sticking to the subject or the question asked - just the usual bunch of whining, cynical, entitled South Africans contributing conspiracies and complaints about the local economy [as if there's no rest-of-the-world-also-dealing-with-the-same-problem], or our corrupt government, or vague allegations of the numbers being made-up, but no productive contribution or or input on the question that was actually asked. MyBroadband asks a clickbait question to get more ad views on its forum and people come out of the woodwork to vent. It's soooo tedious. Well, at least ad revenue is up :-D
 

BBSA

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Jul 11, 2005
Messages
18,526
View attachment 888166

Oh, and also of note, the number of active cases peaked on Jul 20.

These are the official reported numbers from global stats. Obviously stats come with caveats, so bearing that in mind goes without saying.

However, reading through the thread, half of the posts aren't even sticking to the subject or the question asked - just the usual bunch of whining, cynical, entitled South Africans contributing conspiracies and complaints about the local economy [as if there's no rest-of-the-world-also-dealing-with-the-same-problem], or our corrupt government, or vague allegations of the numbers being made-up, but no productive contribution or or input on the question that was actually asked. MyBroadband asks a clickbait question to get more ad views on its forum and people come out of the woodwork to vent. It's soooo tedious. Well, at least ad revenue is up :-D
You whine about the whining in this thread, and then you do some whining about MyBroadband and it members :rolleyes:
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
25,255
Because we have not that many cases and deaths because of the intervention. Exponential growth in outbreaks is nasty. Action between doing something or not doing something can be orders of magnitude - e.g. 10,000 deaths vs. 100,000 deaths.

And more important -- we simply don't know. Nobody really knows the impact of this virus - scientists need time to learn. Things like reinfection, long-term effects on the body of survivors are all not fully understood - best case things will be fine, worst case looks like a world war. And we are holding thumbs there are not problems with mutations. Lots of unknown.

People worried and still worries a lot about TB and HIV - vaccines, constant awareness programs, constant treatment etc. It blurred in the background because treatment became better. HIV at its peak was a HUGE deal.

Comparing it to flu is a strawman. We understand the flu a hell of a lot better. Vulnerable people take precautions (like yearly flu shots!). Beside flu has a much lower mortality rate.

It is not a question of absolutes (because NOBODY knowns where the absolutes are). It is a question of risk and potential impact - driven by statistics, not narratives. But narratives are easier to understand for the layman because they have no clue about statistics or scientific method or risk management.

Speak for yourself! Laymen sometimes can see through the cloud of BS that statisticians and pseudoscientists generate despite the crappy "narratives" generated by the media.

And yes the key is "nobody knows the absolutes".
It is too early. The statisticians and scientists and pseudoscientists need more time to generate their triple-blind twice removed "studies" before someone will start claiming "they know something about the absolutes".
 
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tetrasect

Expert Member
Joined
Aug 22, 2009
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Have you considered that they are testing less because there are simply fewer people who are screened and deemed to need a test?

They stopped screening people and doing contact tracing ages ago. They have changed the testing protocol.
These tests are from people lining up at clinics and hospitals. And most of them are denied tests.
The way it works is they have to list a certain amount of symptoms and if they don't have at least 5 (or whatever) symptoms then they are told to go home. This is being done dispite the fact that we know that infected people rarely show all or even a majority of symptoms.

One woman in this video was denied tests at 3 different clinics and eventually paid for a private test which came back positive.


And anyway, why would there be a sudden and massive reduction in cases right when just a few days earlier there were 11k newly infected people who are out there ready to infect others? That would imply that we have reached herd immunity which we have not, because we would see that in the test results.

In SA we have bottomed out at 4 tests per positive (25% positive) and no matter if we test 20k or 40k people that number has remained. That means there are far more cases than we are testing for.
In countries where the peak has been reached there was a simultaneous increase in the number of tests needed to find a positive, which has not happened here.

The easiest way for the government to prove that there are fewer cases would be to do 300k tests in one day. If we still only see 8k cases then we can all rest easy and know that the pandemic is winding down. Unfortunately this is not a Disney movie and the reality is that they would find 50-60k cases a day minimum.
 
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Kooz

New Member
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
4
It already has. In my opinion we should be watching active cases (total less recoveries and deaths) On 26 July this was at 173587, yesterday it was 141264. That's almost 20% less in 2 weeks.
 

Bismuth

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Joined
Jun 22, 2007
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It already has. In my opinion we should be watching active cases (total less recoveries and deaths) On 26 July this was at 173587, yesterday it was 141264. That's almost 20% less in 2 weeks.

Agreed, but the media report it in such a way that sounds as if there are just about bodies lying in the streets...
 

rustypup

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Jan 28, 2016
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we simply don't know. Nobody really knows the impact of this virus - scientists need time to learn
BS. The coronavirus family has been with us for hundreds of years and we have a mountain of data to refer to with respect to transmission, risk cohorts and mortality. Much like SARS/MERS this variant has a new trick. It has already reached those most susceptible and will likely plateau with seasonal resurgence. Because that's what it has always done.

Taken simply, as was indicated on existing data, maybe 2% of any given population was at risk of dying. This 2% constituted the least economically active population.

Looking at countries with higher ratios of the known risk cohorts will skew the numbers drastically.

In our idiocy we impacted the livelihoods of 100% of the population and negatively impacted the next 50+ years to *possibly* prolong the lives of this 2% by a few more years. Because this 2% is susceptible to far more than just COVID-19 and would likely die from any number of other infectious diseases.

Our irrational fear, soaking in ignorance and social media, are the absolute farking worst.
 

rustypup

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Jan 28, 2016
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complaints about the local economy
Your ignorance in how the economy impacts not only the present but the future speaks to some serious self-infatuation.

Nice to know you give so few shiats about how the idiotic lockdown is impacting those least able to afford it. Starving kids are of no consequence. We get it. You're economically capable of not caring.

Talk about entitled whining.
 

Hourglass

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Joined
Jan 20, 2020
Messages
8
It is also time that not only COVID deaths are reported - When you pass on now, you have died from COVID even if it was a heart attack or old age it is reported as COVID related and it may not even be so. Skewed information is recorded and presented.
 

Johand

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Jan 21, 2005
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BS. The coronavirus family has been with us for hundreds of years and we have a mountain of data to refer to with respect to transmission, risk cohorts and mortality. Much like SARS/MERS this variant has a new trick. It has already reached those most susceptible and will likely plateau with seasonal resurgence. Because that's what it has always done.
Honestly -- I think I will go with epidemiologists on this rather than internet educated forum members. Every week they discover something new about this variant of the corona virus - you can just take a look at the academic literature. Just look at https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=covid and then see what they are discovering.

Just because something existed for long time doesn't mean we understand it. HIV has been with us a long time, but there is no vaccine or cure - just treatment. The flu and cold has been with us a long time, no cure.

Taken simply, as was indicated on existing data, maybe 2% of any given population was at risk of dying. This 2% constituted the least economically active population.

Ah -- so maybe this is the key value in your life and the lens that you look at to the world. "The strongest survive", "Let nature takes it course". "The deserving will survive and the undeserving will die".

I call this argument morally bankrupt. We have a duty to the vulnerable, the poor, the sick, the old.

A lot of the "least economically active population" includes my retired parents, people who sweep the floors and their families, people that collect the garbage and their families and people manning the tills, people that clean hospitals and their families. E.g. the "least economically active" population includes most of the essential workers and their families.

Looking at countries with higher ratios of the known risk cohorts will skew the numbers drastically.

In our idiocy we impacted the livelihoods of 100% of the population and negatively impacted the next 50+ years to *possibly* prolong the lives of this 2% by a few more years. Because this 2% is susceptible to far more than just COVID-19 and would likely die from any number of other infectious diseases.

Our irrational fear, soaking in ignorance and social media, are the absolute farking worst.

The scientist were not aware of all the known risk cohorts. Particularly HIV and TB was a big concern in South Africa.

Anyway -- 2% of the world's population is 140,000,000 - more than the total casualties of WW1 and WW2 combined.

Any talking about impact of the next 50+ years? So you are fear-mongering in the same post as you complain about fear mongering. Yes - short-term (2-3 years) is a BIG BIG problem. But if we are even halfway competent as a world-wide society, we will come out stronger and better on the other side. In fact - I think this crisis might very well be the catalyst for South Africa to get its act straight (and I am not talking about the government, I am talking about the nation).
 

neoprema

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Jan 12, 2016
Messages
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Which of the 2 peaks?

1. The actual peak.
2. The peak based on "massaged" numbers to align to people's agendas...
 

rustypup

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Every week they discover something new about this variant of the corona virus
...and yet it has not stepped one foot out of known risk cohorts.

I call this argument morally bankrupt
You call it morally bankrupt whilst arguing to condemn multiple generations to a terrible fate. Clearly your moral compass is a little skewed toward self-interest and has zero concept of anything outside of what concerns you.

The scientist were not aware of all the known risk cohorts
Yes. They were. As far back as December.

if we are even halfway competent as a world-wide society, we will come out stronger and better on the other side
You're demonstrably delusional. Get a reality grip. Stat.
 

Geoff.D

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Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
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Snip ........

We have a duty to the vulnerable, the poor, the sick, the old.

Yes, 100%. that is why the correct and only valid res[onse to this so-called pandemic, is and was always:

  • Quarantine those that are sick with Covid 19 or exposed to Covid 19.
  • Protect the infirm and vulnerable, the poor, the sick, the old.
NOT

punish the entire population with reams and reams of illogical BS rules and regulations.
 

Burnmeister

New Member
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Apr 2, 2012
Messages
7
Guys, remember in 2003 when we had votes to predict the peak of the SARS corona outbreak? Do you remember all the predictions for the 2018 flu season peak? Exactly. This pandemic will peak and end when people stop counting cases and stop treating it differently than usual flu seasons. The real poll should be: for how long are people going to treat this covid outbreak as something worth destroying the economy over? As something worth forcing our whole civilisation becoming petrified mask wearing recluses over?
 

BBSA

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Messages
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Guys, remember in 2003 when we had votes to predict the peak of the SARS corona outbreak? Do you remember all the predictions for the 2018 flu season peak? Exactly. This pandemic will peak and end when people stop counting cases and stop treating it differently than usual flu seasons. The real poll should be: for how long are people going to treat this covid outbreak as something worth destroying the economy over? As something worth forcing our whole civilisation becoming petrified mask wearing recluses over?
This post should be moved to the covidiot thread.
 
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