Which country do you reckon has the best economic prospects for the next 10 years?

H

HavocXphere

Honorary Master
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
33,155
Plan is to buy an ETF...meaning the outcome is largely dependent on the country as a whole.

Thinking India or China...
 
f2wohf

f2wohf

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 15, 2014
Messages
15,157
Currently, I’d say Ukraine or Syria as they have to rebuild quite a substantial part of the country.

But I doubt it’s the answer you are looking for and I doubt you would find EFTs specialized on them.

Between India and China, I would benefit India as China is already extremely organized, industrialized and starts to show some limitations. Politically, their regime is also out of breath. Their future growth will come from innovation.

India has more ascertained potential ahead without needing innovation as it is still quite a mess, infrastructure is still lacking but Modi seems to be doing quite a good job.
 
Hamster

Hamster

Resident Rodent
Joined
Aug 22, 2006
Messages
42,920
If your thinking is India and China you're most likely after that new emerging market ETF from Satrix or the iShare one on EE?
 
H

HavocXphere

Honorary Master
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
33,155
f2wohf said:
Currently, I’d say Ukraine or Syria as they have to rebuild quite a substantial part of the country.

But I doubt it’s the answer you are looking for and I doubt you would find EFTs specialized on them.

Between India and China, I would benefit India as China is already extremely organized, industrialized and starts to show some limitations. Politically, their regime is also out of breath. Their future growth will come from innovation.

India has more ascertained potential ahead without needing innovation as it is still quite a mess, infrastructure is still lacking but Modi seems to be doing quite a good job.
Click to expand...
Ukraine...interesting but out of reach unfortunately. Can't find anything with more than a couple percent exposure. Syria...yeah no...bit too risky for me even if I could.

India it is then. Liking the infrastructure idea so this one seems like a good bet. I reckon they'll need construction & power going forward.

China is surely a good bet though, no? I think they still have loads of steam left....

Hamster said:
If your thinking is India and China you're most likely after that new emerging market ETF from Satrix or the iShare one on EE?
Click to expand...
IB account so buying directly on whatever exchange.
 
f2wohf

f2wohf

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 15, 2014
Messages
15,157
Otherwise, just do a blend. I'd do 70/30 or 60/40 India China.

But then I'm rather young and invest for a very long term so ready to take more risks (India), the ratio is up to you.

The shadow banking system and the political situation are quite scary in China. I doubt they will collapse, they will probably have a financial and political shakeup, it's needed. Their rate of growth will probably become more the ones of a developed country than of a developing country.

I work for a Chinese company and Chinese are not so optimistic anymore for these reasons, they also start to invest their savings overseas.
 
Thor

Thor

Honorary Master
Joined
Jun 5, 2014
Messages
44,236
That data analyst Rosling something.

He said in 2008 India and China by 2020
 
Thor

Thor

Honorary Master
Joined
Jun 5, 2014
Messages
44,236
f2wohf said:
Otherwise, just do a blend. I'd do 70/30 or 60/40 India China.

But then I'm rather young and invest for a very long term so ready to take more risks (India), the ratio is up to you.

The shadow banking system and the political situation are quite scary in China. I doubt they will collapse, they will probably have a financial and political shakeup, it's needed. Their rate of growth will probably become more the ones of a developed country than of a developing country.

I work for a Chinese company and Chinese are not so optimistic anymore for these reasons, they also start to invest their savings overseas.
Click to expand...
What do you buy to get exposure to India and China?
 
H

HavocXphere

Honorary Master
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
33,155
Arthur said:
I wouldn't touch China with a bargepole. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
Click to expand...

f2wohf said:
The shadow banking system and the political situation are quite scary in China. I doubt they will collapse, they will probably have a financial and political shakeup, it's needed. Their rate of growth will probably become more the ones of a developed country than of a developing country.

I work for a Chinese company and Chinese are not so optimistic anymore for these reasons, they also start to invest their savings overseas.
Click to expand...
Anything else in Asia proper that you'd suggest? S Korea?
 
f2wohf

f2wohf

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 15, 2014
Messages
15,157
P

Papsak

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 5, 2015
Messages
375
As a country with prospects, I rather like Poland. Decent sized country with a hard working workforce that value education. Have overweight positions in EPP and NepiRockcastle.
 
H

HavocXphere

Honorary Master
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
33,155
Thanks for the responses guys

Always good to have a sounding board

f2wohf said:
I have another ETF that is emerging countries balanced by their GDP I think (so Brazil, Russia, SE Asia).

I’m honestly not clued up at all on the rest of Asia so I didn’t dare to invest specifically on one country. Might be worth a look though !
Click to expand...
The specific country thing is in part because it doubles for currency diversification if i buy them individually & denominated in local currency.

OrbitalDawn said:
Hmm, depends what you mean by prospects, I guess? Potential for high returns or stability?
Click to expand...
Just need a place to park money in medium term. Ideally high capital gains.

Papsak said:
As a country with prospects, I rather like Poland. Decent sized country with a hard working workforce that value education. Have overweight positions in EPP and NepiRockcastle.
Click to expand...
oh I like that suggestion. Poland hadn't occurred to me but seems good.

Chevron said:
I'd say India. China's growth has been slowing for ages.
Click to expand...
Must say I didn't expect everyone in thread to be so bearish on China. Surprising.
 
Chevron

Chevron

Serial breaker of phones
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Messages
25,900
HavocXphere said:
Must say I didn't expect everyone in thread to be so bearish on China. Surprising.
Click to expand...

2 things here.

1. Many say that the government has been lying about their growth numbers and that their growth numbers are actually lower that what they're saying.

2. Thanks to all that past growth wages in China have been rising quite a bit. I remember reading an article a while back about clothing manufacturing moving to Bangladesh.

As was already said, China is moving to a focus on innovation so definitely they're growth will be more like a developed country.
 
Last edited:
OrbitalDawn

OrbitalDawn

Ulysses Everett McGill
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
47,031
Papsak said:
As a country with prospects, I rather like Poland. Decent sized country with a hard working workforce that value education. Have overweight positions in EPP and NepiRockcastle.
Click to expand...

HavocXphere said:
oh I like that suggestion. Poland hadn't occurred to me but seems good.
Click to expand...

Be careful with Poland... They've got a seriously authoritarian right wing government in power at the moment.

Poland may be stripped of EU voting rights over judicial independence

The EU is on the brink of taking the nuclear option of stripping Poland of its voting rights in Brussels in response to plans by its rightwing government to “abolish” the independence of the country’s judiciary.

Frans Timmermans, the first vice-president of the European commission, accused Warsaw of seeking to put judges under full political control as he warned that the EU was “very close” to triggering article 7, a never-before-used sanction in the treaties that allows a member state’s voting rights in the council of ministers to be suspended.

Poland’s ruling rightwing Law and Justice party (PiS) has been in almost constant conflict with the European commission since it was elected. In recent weeks the Polish government has proposed a series of reforms that would give ministers power over the appointment of judges and members of the country’s supreme court.
Click to expand...
 
f2wohf

f2wohf

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 15, 2014
Messages
15,157
Chevron said:
2 things here.

1. Many say that the government has been lying about their growth numbers and that their growth numbers are actually lower that what they're saying.
Click to expand...

Thanks for reminding me this.

The story is that the Chinese electricity consumption did not follow the GDP growth by quite a big gap.

Normally electricity and GDP are very linked and this discrepancy cannot be explained by energetically efficiency.

This is where the fake Chinese growth numbers come from and many Chinese agree that it is fake.
 
M

MrGray

Executive Member
Joined
Aug 2, 2004
Messages
9,391
A left field idea might be Thailand and its SE Asia neighbours, Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar. Despite lacklustre figures and military regimes currently, there's a real feel on the ground in Bangkok that it's rapidly transitioning from a tourist novelty into another Singapore. Vietnam is rapidly modernising, Myanmar is opening up to the world and Cambodia is also showing signs of life. These countries are quietly ticking away and growing their manufacturing capabilities. Just a thought, but if you want a high potential for catching the next Asian tigers after S. Korea and Singapore before they rise, this might be worth a closer look.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top