Which country do you reckon has the best economic prospects for the next 10 years?

[HavocXphere]

The story is that the Chinese electricity consumption did not follow the GDP growth by quite a big gap.

haha yes i heard about that. The US financial analysts were using elec numbers to work out real growth then China noticed and started fudging elec numbers too. I believe tracking shipping container numbers is currently in fashion....

Shouldn't affect economic growth. It's Left Wing governments that destroy wealth.

Maybe...think they both could destroy value. Very authoritarian govs get sanctioned.

Be careful with Poland...

hmm...will ask my Polish friends what they think on this.

As was already said, China is moving to a focus on innovation so definitely they're growth will be more like a developed country.

Question is does that innovation equal $$$. I'd say possibly. The whole fake data etc stuff makes me a little though

 

[HavocXphere]

Be careful with Poland... They've got a seriously authoritarian right wing government in power at the moment.

Poland may be stripped of EU voting rights over judicial independence

Good call

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/21/europe/poland-judicial-bill-pass-upper-house/index.html

 

[Papsak]

yes, that is a worry. Thanks for that. Will leave my investments as is - will not add. It's around 12% of my property portfolio - so think that's ok.

 

[KleinBoontjie]

North Korea

 

[konfab]

Be careful with Poland... They've got a seriously authoritarian right wing government in power at the moment.

Poland may be stripped of EU voting rights over judicial independence

They are far less authoritarian than China. You don't see the government in Poland telling people how many children they are allowed to have.

 

[f2wohf]

They are far less authoritarian than China. You don't see the government in Poland telling people how many children they are allowed to have.

The child policy in China is not an authoritarian measure but a survival measure. The country and the government would never have been able to provide food and infrastructure for 2/3 children per women.

It is meant to ensure food and water security.

 

[MrGray]

There are a few big investors that have tentatively been investing in Zimbabwe over the last year or so (no seriously!) - e.g. Jim Rogers (http://www.jimrogers.info/2015/08/bought-zimbabwe-stocks-recently.html#).

Presumably, they're working on the assumption that the only way for the Zim economy is up, and that the POS that runs it is going to kick the bucket at some point.

 

[HavocXphere]

There are a few big investors that have tentatively been investing in Zimbabwe over the last year or so (no seriously!) - e.g. Jim Rogers (http://www.jimrogers.info/2015/08/bought-zimbabwe-stocks-recently.html#).

Presumably, they're working on the assumption that the only way for the Zim economy is up, and that the POS that runs it is going to kick the bucket at some point.

A bold play that might pay off, but seems like a gamble to me. Plus I don't think there is any liquidity on Zim stock exchange?

 

[itareanlnotani]

Vietnam.

Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar are too underdeveloped still, and too poor. Laos is getting massive China investment in infrastructure (mainly to get at the mines), but its far too early otherwise.

Thailand is in a slump at the moment, China itself is limiting forex exchange; trying to stop hot money moving out.

Vietnam is booming.

 

[HavocXphere]

Vietnam.

That's a good suggestion thanks.

And feasible too - found a Vietnam ETF on Arca

Unrelated - do you know of anything interesting on the solar front? Not the panels themselves that space seems too hyped up already...but inverters etc.

 

[SauRoNZA]

Seeing the amount of investment here in Sri Lanka it would be interesting to see what it looks like in 5-10 years.

 

[itareanlnotani]

Have some friends who invested after the tsunami. They have some nice vacation homes down there that have increased in value, but its still not as booming as elsewhere imho.

As for solar, battery is where the investment money is at the moment, panels are mass market lowest price items.

 

[Dolby]

I know I'm venting on an old thread ... But when chatting to US or EU businesses, they ask complain about the inferior products from the East and they cannot match pricing. They have cheap labour, cheap components and they're slowly but surely displacing the US and EU firms.

But having dealt with both, I been honestly say a large portion of why they're successful is the ease of doing business with them. They come back to you the same day (even after hours) and you have MoQ, pricing, warrantie and samples ready for shipping. They bend over backwards.

The Western ... Whew ... Very often a nightmare to deal with. Once you've managed to track the correct person, they won't reply. You really have to beg to do business with them ... Jump through their hoops ... Partner Portal ... Programmes ... Registrations ... Approvals.

And going back to topic, that's why China and India are going to so well in the next 10 years

 

[surface]

Australia is going to supply the world with farm produce soon.

 

[PPLdude]

Australia is going to supply the world with farm produce soon.

That font hurt my eyes

 

[marco]

You forget the one country that you are standing on. SA markets have been demolished under Zuma as the rest of the developing markets have been soaring. SA can only play catch up under the the new regime. The very fact that the ZAR has been resilient is enough to make the future of SA markets to perform better than their peers going forward.

 

[f2wohf]

You forget the one country that you are standing on. SA markets have been demolished under Zuma as the rest of the developing markets have been soaring. SA can only play catch up under the the new regime. The very fact that the ZAR has been resilient is enough to make the future of SA markets to perform better than their peers going forward.

I don’t know if we have the same definition of «*demolished*».

 

[BandwidthAddict]

SA's economy is pretty much dead. Only momentum now. VAT increase to 15% is just the beginning. The number of unemployable and unfeedable is just growing. Eventually the government is going to exhaust the means to feed the growing biomass and then violence is going to collapse the whole system.

But hey, SA is doing just fine.

 

[bromster]

I don’t know if we have the same definition of «*demolished*».

View attachment 507985

You're looking at a graph dated from the end of the recession. Superimpose other currencies on there with the rand and I suspect that lots of the emerging markets would leave us in the dust.

 

[supersunbird]

I don’t know if we have the same definition of «*demolished*».

View attachment 507985

Since mid 2014 it's been pretty flat. That's almost 3.5 years of flatness under Zuma, like 35% of Zuma presidency. And that's the stock market (which has a large inflow of retirement money, 70% of which is forced to stay in SA). What about the real economy's growth ?