Who is the payback period for?
We cannot finance the build of these units, and no one is going to loan us the money. Therefore the units will be built and owned by one of the bidding providers who will then be able to set the price for power moving forward. Do we really want a foreign power setting the price of our power?
The only explanation for the payback period is that it is the payback period for the entity who finances and builds the units. Sweet deal for them.
The truth is Eskom could get a large part of their generation capacity back if they enabled tax incentives and buy back policies on households moving to alternative energy. They don't do this because they know that it's the top end of their paying customer base that will move, the part of the base that provides a subsidy to all of the other private consumers.
In the short term Nuclear seems to maintain this staus quo, but that assumes the entity controlling the nuclear portion of the grid doesn't simply escalate pricing and simply cut off non-paying areas.
The other consideration is that over a 50 year period, solar and energy storage are going to continue to evolve and become cheaper, natural gas may also become more predominant, so the likelihood that the consumer base and it's consumption patterns will be the same by that time is actually pretty bad.