Exactly. The longer the suburb is off the more geysers and fridge mechanical thermostats activate while the power is off.
Geysers especially have no delay so they draw maximum power immediately when the power is restored thus causing a massive current spike.
Thus it causes more load on the local substations immediately leading to fires and trips.
This is correct in spirit, but in reality it's a bit more complicated.
On the geyser side, residential thermostats have a hysteresis of approximately 2.5 degC and most houses have mixer taps everywhere. So it's less a function of standing losses and more how much water you pull from the geyser to trigger the thermostat. This is likely correlated with the time-of-day of the loadshedding vs the duration (evening vs midday).
SA geysers must be at least Class B. Which equates to 8 - 10 degC over 24 hours for a 150l geyser. 4.5 hours at this rate is not enough to trigger the thermostat (but only if you don't pull any hot water).
Point being, I don't see how shortening the duration will make a real difference in 1000's of geysers turning on at the same time.
On the refrigeration side, the inrush is to kickstart the compressor. This has nothing to do with how long it's been off.
This kind of narrative puts some responsibility on citizens ("turn off your geyser").
It's not that I don't agree with you in principle, I just think the blame is elsewhere. Changing the duration of loadshedding is good for morale, but I don't see how it will fix the constant trips/issues when the power needs to come back on.
The real issue is that the INFRASTRUCTURE was never maintained. The substations are old and not deigned to be switched so often. As Joburg densified (complexes everywhere), lots of subdivisions in the suburbs where one house becomes 4 - 10 units. All of this still tied into the same infrastructure without increasing it's capacity.
The same for sewage, many suburbs have sewage issues for the same reason.
The City of Joburg has an official densification agenda so things are only going to get worse.