Will the pandemic spread just as fast after lockdown?

Will the pandemic spread just as fast after lockdown?

  • Yes

    Votes: 44 81.5%
  • No

    Votes: 10 18.5%

  • Total voters
    54

skyw4lk3r

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 2, 2020
Messages
192

"Unfortunately, extreme mitigation efforts which end (even gradually) reduce the number of deaths only by 1% or so; as the mitigation efforts let up, we still see a full-scale epidemic, since almost none of the population has developed immunity to the virus," writes Wesley Pegden, Associate Professor, Department of Mathematical Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University. "There is a simple truth behind the problems with these modeling conclusions. The duration of containment efforts does not matter, if transmission rates return to normal when they end, and mortality rates have not improved. This is simply because as long as a large majority of the population remains uninfected, lifting containment measures will lead to an epidemic almost as large as would happen without having mitigations in place at all."

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As per https://mybroadband.co.za/forum/thr...hat-is-your-experience.1077301/#post-25197285
 

das Toktokken

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 18, 2008
Messages
54,109
This is why the government is considering extending lockdown. I assume they're hoping for a vaccine. I think we're still too far out for that to have a major impact.
 

MightyQuin

Not amused...
Joined
Oct 6, 2010
Messages
25,725
This is why the government is considering extending lockdown. I assume they're hoping for a vaccine. I think we're still too far out for that to have a major impact.
The model above "calls for" a 12 month lock down...which is not tenable.

Extending our lock down by another 21 days or even more, will have zero additional benefits, but it will be the final nail in the coffin for our already fukked economy.
 

Moto Guzzi

Expert Member
Joined
Apr 24, 2004
Messages
1,702
Uncertainties currently:
50Million=Whatever the total citizenship happens to be.
0-When lockdown is lifted and how-?
1-Masks, no masks.
2-Lift of lockdown, with borders closed, no flights, no ships, no travel out of country.
3-Lift of lockdown, province borders closed, no cross travelling etc.
4-Accuracy of tests-? Antibodies or Virus present-?
5-Number tested pos and died without other underlying conditions=%/50Million.
6-Number tested pos and died with other underlying conditions=%/50Million.
7-Number tested pos with mild symptoms=%/50Million.
8-Number tested pos with no symptoms=%/50Million.
9-Number tested negative=%/50Million.
10-Number of individuals effected by the presence of the virus outbreak in such a way they die as a result of the economic effects=%/50Million=Over next 5 years.
11-Vaccine available for this specific strain.
12-Vaccine available cover complete family of SARS-x strains.
 
Last edited:

das Toktokken

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 18, 2008
Messages
54,109
Uncertainties currently:
50Million=Whatever the total citizenship happens to be.
0-When lockdown is lifted and how-?
1-Masks, no masks.
2-Lift of lockdown, with borders closed, no flights, no ships, no travel out of country>
3-Lift of lockdown, province borders closed, no cross travelling etc.
4-Accuracy of tests-? Antibodies or Virus present-?
5-Number tested pos and died without other underlying conditions=%/50Million.
6-Number tested pos and died with other underlying conditions=%/50Million.
7-Number tested pos with mild symptoms=%/50Million.
8-Number tested pos with no symptoms=%/50Million.
9-Number tested negative=%/50Million.
10-Number of individuals effected by the presence of the virus outbreak in such a way they die as a result of the economic effects=%/50Million.
11-Vaccine available for this specific strain.
12-Vaccine available cover complete familyof strains.
LOL, such a geek starting your enumerated list at 0 :laugh:
 

Gordon_R

Honorary Master
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Jul 5, 2009
Messages
18,778
Your first post on the forum, and you set up a quiz. Boy do you have a lot to learn...
 

Nicodeamus

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Sep 20, 2006
Messages
10,303
There seems to be zero evidence that a lockdown actually reduces the rate of infections. Observations fro France, Italy and Spain has shown that it will increase infections because people are concentrated in a Supermarket (that is where I probably got infected).

this overeliance on models is just silly.

the best way to kill this pandemic is for able bodied people to take the virus on the chin and use our collective immune system.

Also the Chloroquine treatment does work. It is why Marseilles has the lowest amount of people in ICU in all of France.


observation studies show that you don’t need any lockdown, the virus will go through any population until it starts decreasing exponentially.
 

Cius

Executive Member
Joined
Jan 20, 2009
Messages
7,163
The best hope of the current strategy is that a vaccine is created soon enough that it prevents the mass infections.
 

Nicodeamus

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Sep 20, 2006
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The best hope of the current strategy is that a vaccine is created soon enough that it prevents the mass infections.

you don’t need a vaccine and that would take 18 months. The chloroquine treatment can kill the viral load. The issue is that it costs 50 cents.

you actually don’t even need that either if you have a good immune system.
 

Jola

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Sep 22, 2005
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This is why the government is considering extending lockdown. I assume they're hoping for a vaccine. I think we're still too far out for that to have a major impact.

I'm not convinced that this lockdown is working, too many people out and about without masks, just spreading the virus. Too many people in close quarters in supermarkets, etc. Restrictions on taxis weakened, etc.
 

krycor

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
18,538
The model above "calls for" a 12 month lock down...which is not tenable.

Extending our lock down by another 21 days or even more, will have zero additional benefits, but it will be the final nail in the coffin for our already fukked economy.

Yes if they open the flood gates..

But no.. reality is that as long as they keep domestic and international travel closed including driving between major urban areas except for those essentials.. they can attempt to prolong with some normalcy as the virally infected are reduced to zero.. but it will flare up if just one is around.

Random testing and new flare up tracing need to continue.
 

TheChamp

Honorary Master
Joined
Feb 26, 2011
Messages
41,982
I'm not convinced that this lockdown is working, too many people out and about without masks, just spreading the virus. Too many people in close quarters in supermarkets, etc. Restrictions on taxis weakened, etc.
But you haven't left your house since the lockdown mos? I think you are working on very little data but making very big findings.
 

Nicodeamus

Honorary Master
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Messages
10,303
The guy that thought that people in a free and open society could imitate China has his Colon attached to his brain.
 

Packetstorm

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 1, 2020
Messages
409
They say one thing, like with the taxis, then they change it the following day.

You're making rules and then changing them. No cigarettes. Oh wait, ok now you can buy cigarettes.

21-day lockdown. Oh wait, let's make it..... Let me guess randomly... ok, how about another 14 days.
 

Slootvreter

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 7, 2008
Messages
29,682
They say one thing, like with the taxis, then they change it the following day.

You're making rules and then changing them. No cigarettes. Oh wait, ok now you can buy cigarettes.

21-day lockdown. Oh wait, let's make it..... Let me guess randomly... ok, how about another 14 days.
Oh the outrage. And that is a random guess on your side. It might well be longer than another 14 days. The full effect of the virus in SA is not yet known to us.
 
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